思考-20200306

1. 普朗克：任何一种科学真相的胜利不是通过说服反对者而成功，而更像是通过反对它的人最终挂掉，然后新一代熟悉它的人逐渐长大。 "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it." - Max Planck
2. 高盛下调今年SP500的EPS增长至0（图1）—— 为什么不是负的......
3. 未来大势

• 那是最美好的时代：亚洲继续崛起（图2），从西方世界“抢份额”。央行救市。数字生活、信息普惠。
• 那是最糟糕的时代：经济脱钩，自动化替代人（知识型工作者也无法幸免），不均增大，通胀（体现在各种资产类型上，不单是CPI），民粹和反全球化思潮涌动，美国拉西方打科技封锁牌，老龄化，央行失灵。数字鸿沟。
• 经济数据只会是上述的表象。

4. 面对有乘数性质=>长尾效应的风险，个人层面上还是应该保持谨慎、ultra保守（图3）。对自己负责，也是对社会负责。疫情、投资，一个道理。
5. Markets are crazy. Headlines are stupid. Stocks are businesses.
6. Jack Ma退休退得太是时候了。现在整天忙着捐口罩。
7. 疫情带来的经济影响各阶段描述，长期影响才是最吓人的（图4-5）。
8. 狄更斯《双城记》开头原文：
   那是最美好的时代，那是最糟糕的时代；那是智慧的年头，那是愚昧的年头；那是信仰的时期，那是怀疑的时期；那是光明的季节，那是黑暗的季节；那是希望的春天，那是失望的冬天；我们全都在直奔天堂，我们全都在直奔相反的方向 —— 简而言之，那时跟现在非常相象，某些最喧嚣的权威坚持要用形容词的最高级来形容它。说它好，是最高级的；说它不好，也是最高级的。
   It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

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