经过前面的两章的知识点的学习,我可以对数数据的本身进行处理,比如数据本身的增删查补,还可以做必要的清洗工作。那么下面我们就要开始使用我们前面处理好的数据了。这一章我们要做的就是使用数据,我们做数据分析的目的也就是,运用我们的数据以及结合我的业务来得到某些我们需要知道的结果。那么分析的第一步就是建模,搭建一个预测模型或者其他模型;我们从这个模型的到结果之后,我们要分析我的模型是不是足够的可靠,那我就需要评估这个模型。今天我们学习建模,下一节我们学习评估。
我们拥有的泰坦尼克号的数据集,那么我们这次的目的就是,完成泰坦尼克号存活预测这个任务。
import os
os.environ["KMP_DUPLICATE_LIB_OK"]="TRUE"
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
plt.plot(np.sin(np.linspace(0,2*np.pi, 100)))
[]
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import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns
from IPython.display import Image
plt.rcParams['font.sans-serif'] = ['SimHei'] # 用来正常显示中文标签
plt.rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False # 用来正常显示负号
plt.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = (10, 6) # 设置输出图片大小
载入这些库,如果缺少某些库,请安装他们
【思考】这些库的作用是什么呢?你需要查一查
#思考题回答
%matplotlib inline
载入我们提供清洗之后的数据(clear_data.csv),大家也将原始数据载入(train.csv),说说他们有什么不同
#写入代码
clear_data=pd.read_csv('./clear_data.csv')
clear_data
PassengerId | Pclass | Age | SibSp | Parch | Fare | Sex_female | Sex_male | Embarked_C | Embarked_Q | Embarked_S | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0 | 3 | 22.000000 | 1 | 0 | 7.2500 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 38.000000 | 1 | 0 | 71.2833 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 2 | 3 | 26.000000 | 0 | 0 | 7.9250 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
3 | 3 | 1 | 35.000000 | 1 | 0 | 53.1000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
4 | 4 | 3 | 35.000000 | 0 | 0 | 8.0500 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
886 | 886 | 2 | 27.000000 | 0 | 0 | 13.0000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
887 | 887 | 1 | 19.000000 | 0 | 0 | 30.0000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
888 | 888 | 3 | 29.699118 | 1 | 2 | 23.4500 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
889 | 889 | 1 | 26.000000 | 0 | 0 | 30.0000 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
890 | 890 | 3 | 32.000000 | 0 | 0 | 7.7500 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
891 rows × 11 columns
#写入代码
train_data=pd.read_csv('./train.csv')
train_data
PassengerId | Survived | Pclass | Name | Sex | Age | SibSp | Parch | Ticket | Fare | Cabin | Embarked | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | Braund, Mr. Owen Harris | male | 22.0 | 1 | 0 | A/5 21171 | 7.2500 | NaN | S |
1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th... | female | 38.0 | 1 | 0 | PC 17599 | 71.2833 | C85 | C |
2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | Heikkinen, Miss. Laina | female | 26.0 | 0 | 0 | STON/O2. 3101282 | 7.9250 | NaN | S |
3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel) | female | 35.0 | 1 | 0 | 113803 | 53.1000 | C123 | S |
4 | 5 | 0 | 3 | Allen, Mr. William Henry | male | 35.0 | 0 | 0 | 373450 | 8.0500 | NaN | S |
... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
886 | 887 | 0 | 2 | Montvila, Rev. Juozas | male | 27.0 | 0 | 0 | 211536 | 13.0000 | NaN | S |
887 | 888 | 1 | 1 | Graham, Miss. Margaret Edith | female | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 112053 | 30.0000 | B42 | S |
888 | 889 | 0 | 3 | Johnston, Miss. Catherine Helen "Carrie" | female | NaN | 1 | 2 | W./C. 6607 | 23.4500 | NaN | S |
889 | 890 | 1 | 1 | Behr, Mr. Karl Howell | male | 26.0 | 0 | 0 | 111369 | 30.0000 | C148 | C |
890 | 891 | 0 | 3 | Dooley, Mr. Patrick | male | 32.0 | 0 | 0 | 370376 | 7.7500 | NaN | Q |
891 rows × 12 columns
#写入代码
这里我的建模,并不是从零开始,自己一个人完成完成所有代码的编译。我们这里使用一个机器学习最常用的一个库(sklearn)来完成我们的模型的搭建
下面给出sklearn的算法选择路径,供大家参考
# sklearn模型算法选择路径图
Image('sklearn.png')
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【思考】数据集哪些差异会导致模型在拟合数据是发生变化
#思考回答
这里使用留出法划分数据集
【思考】
train_test_split
train_test_split?
后回车即可看到要从clear_data.csv和train.csv中提取train_test_split()所需的参数
#写入代码
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
X=clear_data
Y=train_data['Survived']
X.shape
(891, 11)
#写入代码 数据切割
X_train, X_test, Y_train, Y_test = train_test_split(X, Y, stratify=Y, test_size=0.1)
X_train.shape
(801, 11)
#写入代码
Y_train.shape
(801,)
#写入代码
【思考】
#思考回答
LinearRegression
混淆sklearn.linear_model
sklearn.ensemble
#写入代码
from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
#写入代码
# 默认参数逻辑回归模型
lr = LogisticRegression()
lr.fit(X_train, Y_train)
D:\Users\chenj\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\sklearn\linear_model\_logistic.py:763: ConvergenceWarning: lbfgs failed to converge (status=1):
STOP: TOTAL NO. of ITERATIONS REACHED LIMIT.
Increase the number of iterations (max_iter) or scale the data as shown in:
https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/preprocessing.html
Please also refer to the documentation for alternative solver options:
https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/linear_model.html#logistic-regression
n_iter_i = _check_optimize_result(
LogisticRegression()
#写入代码
# 查看训练集和测试集score值
print("Training set score: {:.2f}".format(lr.score(X_train, Y_train)))
print("Testing set score: {:.2f}".format(lr.score(X_test, Y_test)))
Training set score: 0.80
Testing set score: 0.83
#写入代码
# 调整参数后的逻辑回归模型
lr2 = LogisticRegression(C=100)
lr2.fit(X_train, Y_train)
D:\Users\chenj\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\sklearn\linear_model\_logistic.py:763: ConvergenceWarning: lbfgs failed to converge (status=1):
STOP: TOTAL NO. of ITERATIONS REACHED LIMIT.
Increase the number of iterations (max_iter) or scale the data as shown in:
https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/preprocessing.html
Please also refer to the documentation for alternative solver options:
https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/linear_model.html#logistic-regression
n_iter_i = _check_optimize_result(
LogisticRegression(C=100)
print("Training set score: {:.3f}".format(lr2.score(X_train, Y_train)))
print("Testing set score: {:.3f}".format(lr2.score(X_test, Y_test)))
Training set score: 0.795
Testing set score: 0.811
# 使用随机森林分类模型
rfc = RandomForestClassifier()
rfc.fit(X_train,Y_train)
RandomForestClassifier()
print("Train set score:{:.3f}".format(rfc.score(X_train, Y_train)))
print("Testing set score: {:.3f}".format(rfc.score(X_test, Y_test)))
Train set score:1.000
Testing set score: 0.856
【思考】
#思考回答
predict
能输出预测标签,predict_proba
则可以输出标签概率#写入代码
# 预测标签
pred = lr.predict(X_train)
pred
array([0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1,
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0,
1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,
0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0,
1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1,
1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1,
1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0,
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1,
1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1,
0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0,
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1,
1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1,
1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0], dtype=int64)
#写入代码
# 预测标签概率
pred_proba = lr.predict_proba(X_train)
pred_proba[:10]
array([[0.93486747, 0.06513253],
[0.01636953, 0.98363047],
[0.28030164, 0.71969836],
[0.91669926, 0.08330074],
[0.56464474, 0.43535526],
[0.08751208, 0.91248792],
[0.94008182, 0.05991818],
[0.84788332, 0.15211668],
[0.54144282, 0.45855718],
[0.02823594, 0.97176406]])
#写入代码
pred_proba1 = rfc.predict_proba(X_train)
pred_proba1[:10]
array([[0.98, 0.02],
[0. , 1. ],
[0.08, 0.92],
[0.32, 0.68],
[0.91, 0.09],
[0.69, 0.31],
[0.91, 0.09],
[0.79, 0.21],
[0.22, 0.78],
[0. , 1. ]])
#写入代码
【思考】
#思考回答