试译《今日简史》19

Obviously, most of this is just speculation. At the time of writing- early 2018 - automation has disrupted many industries but it has not resulted in massive unemployment. In fact, in many countries, such as the USA,unemployment is at a historical low. Nobody can know for sure what sort of impact machine learning and automation will have on different professions in the future, and it is extremely difficult to estimate the timetable of relevant developments, especially as they depend on political decisions and cultural traditions as much as on purely technological breakthroughs. Thus even after self-driving vehicles prove themselves safer and cheaper than human drivers,politicians and consumers might nevertheless block the change for years,perhaps decades.

显然，这其中大部分情况只是猜测。在撰写本书之际（2018年初），自动化已经扰乱了许多行业，但并未导致大规模失业。事实上，在许多国家，如美国，失业率处于历史最低水平。没有人能确切地知道机器学习和自动化在未来会对不同的职业产生怎样的影响，而且很难估计相应发展的时间表，尤其是因为机器学习和自动化不仅纯粹取决于技术突破，还取决于政治决策和文化传统。因此，即使自动驾驶汽车证明自己比人类司机更安全、更实惠，政治家和消费者仍可能在数年甚至数十年内阻止自动驾驶汽车的运行。

显然，以上大部分只是猜测。在本书写作的此时2018年年初；自动化已经对许多产业造成影响，但尚未导致大量失业。事实上，在荑国等许多国家，失业率已降至历史最低点。没人能够确定机器学习和6 动化究竟会对未来的各种行业产生怎样的影响，想预估相关时间表也绝非易事。特别是这一切不只要看科技上的突破，各种政治决策与文化传统的影响也至关重要。因此，就算已经证明自动驾驶汽车比人类司机更安全、更便宜，政客和消费者仍然可能会在几年甚至几十年间抗拒改变。【林俊宏】    

However, we cannot allow ourselves to be complacent. It is dangerous just to assume that enough new jobs will appear to compensate for any losses. The fact that this has happened during previous waves of automation is absolutely no guarantee that it will happen again under the very different conditions of the twenty-first century. The potential social and political disruptions are so alarming that even if the probability of systemic mass unemployment is low, we should take it very seriously.

但是，我们不能自满。认为将来会有足够的新工作机会来弥补任何损失，这种想法是危险的。这种情况在以前的自动化浪潮中发生过，但是在条件非常不同的21世纪，绝对不能保证这种情况会再次发生。潜在的社会和政治混乱令人担忧，即使是出现系统性大规模失业的可能性很低，我们也应该慎重对待。

但我们也不能过于乐观。一心认为会有足够的新工作来弥补被淘汰的工作，将会十分危险。在过去的自动化浪潮中曾发生的这一事实，并不能保证一定会在21世纪这个极为不同的情境下再次发生。一旦真的发生系统性大规模失业，潜在的社会和政治干扰将会极为严重，因此就算发生系统性大规模失业的可能性非常低，我们也必须严肃对待。【林俊宏】    

In the nineteenth century the Industrial Revolution created new conditions and problems that none of the existing social, economic and political models could cope with. Feudalism, monarchism and traditional religions were not adapted to managing industrial metropolises, millions of uprooted workers, or the constantly changing nature of the modern economy.Consequently, humankind had to develop completely new models - liberal democracies, communist dictatorships and fascist regimes - and it took more than a century of terrible wars and revolutions to experiment with these models, separate the wheat from the chaff, and implement the best solutions.Child labour in Dickensian coal mines, the First World War and the Great Ukrainian Famine of 1932-3 constituted just a small part of the tuition fees humankind paid.

19世纪，工业革命创造了新条件和新问题，当时的任何社会、经济和政治模式都无法应付。封建主义、君主主义和传统宗教不适合管理工业大都市、数百万背井离乡的工人，也不适应现代经济的不断变化。因此，人类必须发展出全新的模式——自由民主、共产主义独裁和法西斯政权——并且用了一个多世纪的可怕战争和革命来试验这些模式，去芜存菁，采取最佳解决方案。狄更斯笔下煤矿的童工、第一次世界大战和1932-1933年乌克兰大饥荒，只占人类所支付学费的一小部分。

19世纪工业革命兴起之后，当时的社会、经济和政治模式都无法应对相关的新情况和新问题。封建主义、君主制和传统宗教不适合管理工业大都市、几百万背井离乡的工人，并面对现代经济不断变化的本质。于是，人类必须开发全新的模式——自由民主国家、独裁政权、法西斯政权，再用超过一个世纪的惨痛战争和革命来测试这些模式，去芜存菁，以找出并实践最佳解决方案。狄更斯笔下的煤矿童工、第一次世界大战和1932-1933年的乌克兰大饥荒，都只是人类付出昂贵学费的一小部分。【林俊宏】

The challenge posed to humankind in the twenty-first century by infotech and biotech is arguably much bigger than the challenge posed in the previous era by steam engines, railroads and electricity. And given the immense destructive power of our civilisation, we just cannot afford more failed models, world wars and bloody revolutions. This time around, the failed models might result in nuclear wars, genetically engineered monstrosities, and a complete breakdown of the biosphere. Consequently, we have to do better than we did in confronting the Industrial Revolution.

信息技术和生物技术在二十一世纪对人类带来的挑战，可以说远远大于蒸汽机、铁路和电力在前一个时代带来的挑战。由于人类文明具备巨大破坏力，因此我们无法承受更多失败的模式、世界大战和血腥革命。这一次，失败的模型可能会导致核战争、基因工程怪兽和生物圈的彻底崩溃。因此，我们必须要比对抗工业革命时表现得更好。

信息技术和生物技术在21世纪给人类带来的挑战，会比蒸汽机、铁路和电力在上个时代带来的挑战大得多。由于现代文明的破坏力过于惊人，人类实在禁不起更多的测试失败、世界大战或血腥革命。现代如果测试失败，可能导致的就是核战争、基因工程怪物或生物圈的彻底崩溃。所以，我们只能比面对工业革命时做得更好才行。【林俊宏】