The rapid scale-up of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine could virtually eliminate cervical cancer in a handful of rich countries within three decades, and in most other nations by century's end, researchers said Wednesday.
周三有研究人员表示，人类乳头瘤病毒（HPV）疫苗的迅速普及，有望让少数发达国家在 30 年内基本消灭宫颈癌，而对于大部分其他国家来说，这个时间点将落在本世纪结束前。
Without screening and HPV vaccination, more than 44 million women will likely be diagnosed with the disease over the next 50 years, they reported in The Lancet Oncology, a medical journal.
他们在医学期刊《柳叶刀肿瘤学》中发文指出，倘若不接受子宫颈检查和 HPV 疫苗接种，超过 4,400 万名女性很有可能会在今后 50 年中被诊断出患有这种疾病。
By contrast, the rapid deployment starting in 2020 of screening and vaccination could prevent more than 13 million cervical cancers by mid-century worldwide, and lower the number of cases to below four-per-100,000 women, the study found.
与之相比，这项研究发现，自 2020 年起快速扩大的检查和疫苗接种规模，到本世纪中叶或能在全球有效预防 1,300 多万起宫颈癌病例，并使其发病率降至每 10 万名女性中低于 4 例。
"This is a potential threshold for considering cervical cancer to be eliminated as a major public health problem," the authors said in a statement.
研究的作者们在一份声明中说：“十万分之四可能是一个临界点，当发病率低于这个数字时，我们就可以认为宫颈癌不再是一个重大的公共卫生问题了。”
"Despite the enormity of the problem, our findings suggest that global elimination is within reach," said lead author Karen Canfell, a professor at the Cancer Council New South Wales, in Sydney.
该研究的主要作者，来自悉尼新南威尔士癌症协会的凯伦·坎菲尔教授说：“尽管问题很严峻，但我们的研究结果显示，全球范围内消灭宫颈癌已然在望。”
Achieving that goal, however, depends on "both high coverage of HPV vaccination and cervical screening," she added.
但她也说，达成这项目标需要“高度普及的 HPV 疫苗接种和子宫颈检查双管齐下”。
Clinical trials have shown that HPV vaccines are safe and effective against the two HPV strains—types 16 and 18—responsible for 70 percent of cervical cancer cases.
临床试验表明，HPV 疫苗对于两种 HPV 病毒——16 型和 18 型——能起到安全有效的预防作用，而这两种病毒正是 70%的宫颈癌病例的元凶。
The study's projections presume the vaccination of 80 percent of girls 12 to 15 years old starting in 2020, and that at least 70 percent of women undergo screening twice in their lifetime.
该研究做出的预测假定从 2020 年开始，12 至 15 岁女孩的疫苗接种率将达到 80%，而至少 70%的女性将在一生中接受两次子宫颈检查。
This would push the prevalence of the disease below the bar of 4/100,000 women in countries such as the United States, Canada, Britain and France by 2059, and in mid-income countries such as Brazil and China by 2069, the authors calculate.
这样的话，据研究作者们估计，到 2059 年，在美国、加拿大、英国和法国等国家，宫颈癌的患病率将降低至每 10 万名女性中 4 例以下，而巴西、中国这些中等收入国家则会在 2069 年前达到这一标准。