PETS5考试的一篇听力

[2009-06-13]PETS5考试的一篇听力

听力部分有些地方不是特别清楚，比如什么有同道今天参加过考试的吗？大家可以交流一下。

刚才找到了其中一篇听力的原文，是来自经济学人的。

How to forecast the forecasters
怎样预报预报员

IF YOU think the weather is unpredictable, consider the weathermen. They are constantly revising their forecasts, causing inconvenience not only to those pondering whether or not to take an umbrella, but also to commodity traders placing bets on how much gas and electricity will be needed for heating. When their predictions turn from cold snap to heat wave, say, it can play havoc with the forward price of gas.
如果你认为天气是无法预报的，考虑一下气象预报员吧。他们不断的修正他们的预报，不仅对那些正在犹豫是否要带伞的人带来不便，对那些正在供热所需能耗上下注的商品交易员来说也同样如此。当他们的预报从寒流变成暖流，可以说会使燃气期货价格陷入巨大的混乱之中。

WSI, a firm that owns the Weather Channel and sells forecasts of its own to airlines and other weather-dependent companies, has been grappling with this problem. Its solution is a new product called MarketFirst, a sort of forecast of the forecast. Every day, an hour before America's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration releases its updated forecast for the world's weather, WSI issues its own prediction of how the new bulletin will differ from the previous one. It does the same for the EU's official forecast. A year's subscription to MarketFirst, launched last November, costs $90,000, and WSI says it has already signed up a dozen customers.
WSI是一家拥有气象频道的公司，把其拥有的气象预报买给航空公司和其他依赖天气的公司，已经解决了这个问题。它的解决方案是一种名叫市场优先的新产品，就像预报的预报一样。每天在美国国家海洋与大气局发布其世界天气的最新预报前一小时，WSI公司会放出该公司自己的预报，关于这次的气象公报将和前一次有何不同。它同样发布欧盟官方预报的预报。市场优先预报从去年11月份开始发布，订阅一年期该预报需要花费90000美元，WSI公司表示它已经与一打客户签订了合约。

MarketFirst would be of little use if it was as unreliable about the forecasts as the forecasts are about the weather. But WSI claims it is right 70% of the time. The trick, says Ira Scharf, who is in charge of selling it, is to understand the algorithms that underpin the government's forecasts. WSI has been studying them for years to improve its own forecasts and has detected the subtle biases in both the American and European models. European weathermen, for example, underestimate temperatures for western America in spring and autumn. American ones are prone to predict chillier temperatures than they should for the period from 11 to 15 days from the time of the forecast.
如果市场优先预报像天气预报一样不可靠的话，它将毫无用处。但WSI公司宣称它有70%的正确率。负责该产品销售的Ira Scharf说，其诀窍在于了解支持政府发布预报的算法。WSI公司已经对其进行了多年的研究以改善他们自身预报，发现美国与欧洲预报上的细微偏差。举例来说，欧洲的天气预报员低估了美国西部春秋季的温度。而美国的预报员倾向于在天气预报发布后11到15天的时期把气温预报得更低。

The more widespread MarketFirst becomes, the less useful it will be to its subscribers, Mr Scharf concedes, since markets would begin to move in response to its release, rather than to the forecasts it anticipates. So WSI considered various methods of selling it, including releasing it earlier to certain customers for a higher fee. Another option would be to sell a forecast of the forecast of the forecast. So far, Mr Scharf says, traders do not see the need. But in the long run it is as inevitable as changes in the weather.
Scharf承认，市场优先预报变得越为普遍，对其订户的作用就越小，因为市场走向将根据该预报的发布而改变，而不是市场预期的预报。因此WSI公司考虑了很多该产品的销售方式，包括对某些客户更早发布预报以收取更高的费用。另一种选择是销售预报的预报的预报。Scharf表示到目前为止，交易者还没有这种需求。但长远来看，这种需求就像天气的变化一样，是不可避免的。

 

 

Steven Spielberg的原文找不到，不过那篇讲的应该是他05年的新片《世界大战》，所以第一道是选aliens are aggressive and hostile. 第二题选stories about aliens，因为他爸爸是科幻小说迷，这一点WIKI百科上都能查得到， 第三题我选的是 imagination，不知道对不对。

我发的这篇材料，听的时候虽然云里雾里，其实做起来并不难，有的选项不听内容，自己按照逻辑都能选对，比如看到energy trader。就知道应该选changes on oil price。个人感觉PETS5的考试材料不简单，但是题目设计却很简单。

 

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