(二）人们的想法不会因为事实而改变 2019-05-17

The mind doesn’t follow the facts. Facts, as John Adams put it, are stubborn things, but our minds are even more stubborn. Doubt isn’t always resolved in the face of facts for even the most enlightened among us, however credible and convincing those facts might be.我们的想法不遵循事实。正如约翰·亚当斯(John Adams)所说，事实是顽固的东西，但我们的思想甚至更为顽固。即使对我们当中最开明的人来说，无论这些事实多么可信和令人信服，在面对事实时，怀疑并不总是能够得到解决。

As a result of the well-documented confirmation bias, we tend to undervalue evidence that contradicts our beliefs and overvalue evidence that confirms them. We filter out inconvenient truths and arguments on theopposing side. As a result, our opinions solidify, and it becomes increasingly harder to disrupt established patterns of thinking.由于证据充分的确认偏见，我们倾向于低估与我们信念相矛盾的证据，而高估与我们信念一致的证据。我们忽略掉那些不愿面对的事实和论点。结果，我们的观点固化了，打破既有的思维模式变得越来越难。 

We believe in alternative facts if they support our pre-existing beliefs. Aggressively mediocre corporate executives remain in office because we interpret the evidence to confirm the accuracy of our initial hiring decision. Doctors continue to preach the ills of dietary fat despite emerging research to the contrary.如果其他事实支持我们原有的信念，我们就会相信它。碌碌无为的公司高管仍然在职，因为我们分析了证据，确认我们最初招聘决策的准确性。尽管已经出现相反的研究，医生们仍在鼓吹饮食脂肪的弊端。

If you have any doubts about the power of the confirmation bias, think back to the last time you Googled a question. Did you meticulously read each link to get a broad objective picture? Or did you simply skim through the links looking for the page that confirms what you already believed was true? And let’s face it, you’ll always find that page, especially if you’re willing to click through to Page 12 on the Google search results.如果你对确认偏见的力量有任何的怀疑，回想一下你上次在谷歌搜索问题的时候。你是否仔细阅读了每一个链接，以获得一个广泛的客观图片？或者你只是简单地浏览了一下链接，寻找确认你已经认定的答案的页面。让我们面对现实吧，你总会找到那一页，尤其是你愿意点击到谷歌搜索的第12页。

“Facts, as John Adams put it, are stubborn things, but our minds are even more stubborn.”“正如JohnAdams说的，事实是顽固的东西，但我们的思想甚至更为顽固。”

If facts don’t work, how do you change a mind–whether it’s your own or your neighbor’s?如果事实不起作用，你如何改变想法 – 无论是你自己的还是你邻居的？