ICM-2016 E题

PROBLEM E: Are we heading towards a thirsty planet?

原题下载：MCM-2016-D

Will the world run out of clean water? According to the United Nations, 1.6 billion people (one quarter of the world's population) experience water scarcity. Water use has been growing at twice the rate of population over the last century. Humans require water resources for industrial, agricultural, and residential purposes. There are two primary causes for water scarcity: physical scarcity and economic scarcity. Physical scarcity is where there is inadequate water in a region to meet demand. Economic scarcity is where water exists but poor management and lack of infrastructure limits the availability of clean water. Many scientists see this water scarcity problem becoming exacerbated with climate change and population increase. The fact that water use is increasing at twice the rate of population suggests that there is another cause of scarcity – is it increasing rates of personal consumption, or increasing rates of industrial consumption, or increasing pollution which depletes the supply of fresh water, or what? **

Is it possible to provide clean fresh water to all? The supply of water must take into account the physical availability of water (e.g., natural water source, technological advances such as desalination plants or rainwater harvesting techniques). Understanding water availability is an inherently interdisciplinary problem. One must not only understand the environmental constraints on water supply, but also how social factors influence availability and distribution of clean water. For example, lack of adequate sanitation can cause a decrease in water quality. Human population increase also places increased burden on the water supply within a region. When analyzing issues of water scarcity, the following types of questions must be considered. How have humans historically exacerbated or alleviated water scarcity? What are the geological, topographical, and ecological reasons for water scarcity, and how can we accurately predict future water availability? What is the potential for new or alternate sources of water (for example, desalinization plants, water harvesting techniques or undiscovered aquifers)? What are the demographic and health related problems tied to water scarcity?

Problem Statement

The International Clean water Movement (ICM) wants your team to help them solve the world’s water problems. Can you help improve access to clean, fresh water?

Task 1: Develop a model that provides a measure of the ability of a region to provide clean water to meet the needs of its population. You may need to consider the dynamic nature of the factors that affect both supply and demand in your modeling process.

Task 2: Using the UN water scarcity map (http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/jpg/0222-waterstress-overuse-EN.jpg) pick one country or region where water is either heavily or moderately overloaded. Explain why and how water is scarce in that region. Make sure to explain both the social and environmental drivers by addressing physical and/or economic scarcity.

Task 3: In your chosen region from Task 2, use your model from Task 1 to show what the water situation will be in 15 years. How does this situation impact the lives of citizens of this region? Be sure to incorporate the environmental drivers’ effects on the model components.

Task 4: For your chosen region, design an intervention plan taking all the drivers of water scarcity into account. Any intervention plan will inevitably impact the surrounding areas, as well

as the entire water ecosystem. Discuss this impact and the overall strengths and weaknesses of the plan in this larger context. How does your plan mitigate water scarcity?

Task 5: Use the intervention you designed in Task 4 and your model to project water availability into the future. Can your chosen region become less susceptible to water scarcity? Will water become a critical issue in the future? If so, when will this scarcity occur?

Task 6: Write a 20-page report (the one-page summary sheet does not count in the 20 pages) that explains your model, water scarcity in your region with no intervention, your intervention, and the effect of your intervention on your region’s and the surrounding area’s water availability. Be sure to detail the strengths and weaknesses of your model. The ICM will use your report to help with its mission to produce plans to provide access to clean water for all citizens of the world. Good luck in your modeling work!

Possible Resources

An Overview of the State of the World’s Fresh and Marine Waters. 2nd Edition, 2008. (http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/index.html).

The World’s Water: Information on the World’s Freshwater Resources. (http://worldwater.org).

AQUASTAT. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAO Water Resources. (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water_res/index.stm).

The State of the World's Land and Water Resources for food and agriculture. 2011. (http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/i1688e/i1688e00.htm).

GrowingBlue: Water. Economics. Life. (http://growingblue.com).

World Resources Institute. www.wri.org.

**Note that the 2013 Mathematical Competition in Modeling (Problem B) and the 2009 High School Modeling Competition in Modeling (Problem A) were related to modeling different aspects of water scarcity.

Your ICM submission should consist of a 1 page Summary Sheet and your solution cannot exceed 20 pages for a maximum of 21 pages. Note: The appendix and references do not count toward the 20 page limit.

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E题：我们朝向一个干旱的星球？

世界将用完干净的水？根据联合国，1.6十亿人的经验缺水（占世界人口的四分之一）。用水量在人口上个世纪两倍的速度在增长。人类需要工业，农业和住宅用途的水资源。有对缺水两个主要的原因：物理稀缺性和经济匮乏。物理稀缺性是有水的地方不足的区域，以满足需求。经济匮乏是在存在水，但管理不善和缺乏基础设施限制了清洁水的可用性。许多科学家看到这个缺水问题变得更加恶化与气候变化和人口增长。水的使用是在人口的两倍速度增长，这一事实表明，有稀缺性的另一个原因 - 它是增加个人消费率，或增加工业消费率，或增加污染，消耗的淡水，或者是什么电源？ **

是否有可能向所有人提供清洁的淡水？水的供应必须考虑到水的物理可用性（如天然水源，技术进步，如海水淡化厂和雨水收集技术）。了解水的供应是一个跨学科的本质问题。其中不仅要了解供水的环境约束，又是如何的社会因素影响的可用性和干净的水分布。例如，缺乏适当的卫生设施会造成水质下降。人口增长还使负担增加对区域内的供水。在分析水资源短缺的问题，以下类型的问题必须加以考虑。怎么会有人类历史上加剧或缓解缺水？什么是缺水的地质，地形和生态的原因，以及我们如何能够准确地预测未来水的供应？什么是水的新的或替代能源（例如，海水淡化工厂，集水技术或未被发现的含水层）的潜力？什么是绑缺水人口与健康有关的问题？

问题陈述

国际清洁水运动（ICM）希望你的团队，帮助他们解决世界水问题。你能帮助改善获得清洁，新鲜的水？

任务1：开发提供的一个地区提供清洁的水，以满足人民的需求能力的量度的典范。您可能需要考虑的影响在建模过程中供给和需求的因素的动态性。

任务2：使用联合国缺水地图（http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/jpg/0222-waterstress-overuse-EN.jpg）选择一个国家或地区的水要么是严重或中度超载。解释为何以及如何水是在该地区缺乏。确保通过解决物理和/或经济稀缺性来解释这两个社会和环境的驱动程序。

任务3：在从任务2您选择的地区，使用来自任务1模型显示什么缺水状况将在15年。请问这个情况影响该地区人民的生活水平？一定要包含在模型组件的环境司机的影响。

任务4：对于您所选择的区域，设计的干预计划以缺水的所有驱动程序在内。任何干预计划将不可避免地影响到周边地区，以及整个水生生态系统。讨论这个问题的影响，在这一大背景中计划的整体优势和弱点。请问你的计划，缓解水资源短缺？

任务5：使用在任务4设计的干预和你的模型来预测水供应到未来。您选择的地区可以成为缺水不敏感？将水成为未来的一个关键问题？如果是这样，当将这种稀缺发生的？

任务6：编写与不干预，您的干预解释模型，缺水在您所在地区长达20页的报告（单页汇总表不会在20页计数），以及您的干预对您所在地区的影响及周边地区的水供应。一定要详细模型的长处和短处。该ICM将使用您的报告，以帮助其使命，以生产计划提供获得清洁的水世界的所有公民。好运气在你的建模工作！

可能的资源：

An Overview of the State of the World’s Fresh and Marine Waters. 2nd Edition, 2008. (http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/index.html).

The World’s Water: Information on the World’s Freshwater Resources. (http://worldwater.org).

AQUASTAT. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAO Water Resources. (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water_res/index.stm).

The State of the World's Land and Water Resources for food and agriculture. 2011. (http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/i1688e/i1688e00.htm).

GrowingBlue: Water. Economics. Life. (http://growingblue.com).

World Resources Institute. www.wri.org.