Market on Jobless Figures: What, Me Worry?

除了就业市场仍处在30年来最差状况之外，美国经济真的不错。到目前为止，美国经济的这种局面足以令股市欣慰，经济触底反弹的种种迹象一直在推动股市明显上扬，只有数百万美国失业者的购买力不足偶尔会引发股市的短暂担忧。随着周四上午一系列经济数据的发布，有可能出现更多显示美国经济总体状况良好与高失业率并存的证据。美国劳工部(Labor Department)将率先发布每周首次申请失业救济人数数据。经济学家们认为，本周的首次申请失业救济人数将从上周的558,000人降至550,000人。这会大大低于3月底时创下26年高点的674,000人。从历史上看，如此大幅度的下降往往标志着经济衰退的结束。但MFR的首席美国经济学家夏皮罗(Joshua Shapiro)说，即使每周首次申请失业救济人数降至550,000人，也意味着失业人数每月会增加450,000人。投资者还将关注美国领取失业救济的人数。这一数字最近已经较创纪录的680多万人有所下降，一些经济学家估计，最新可能已经降至了620万人以下。但美国许多失业者正在耗尽从州政府领取的救济金。进一步从联邦政府领取救济金的人数也仍在增加，上一次统计时已达280万人。野村证券(Nomura Securities)的首席经济学家莱斯勒(David Resler)写道，鉴于有近930万人要么在领取常规失业救济，要么在领取其他的失业救济，疲弱的就业市场仍在对住房业和整体经济造成压力。周四晚些时候，市场有可能得到一些更加鼓舞人心的数据。费城联邦储备银行将公布最新的中大西洋区工厂活动指数，该指数有可能自2008年9月以来首次转为正值。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)将公布最新的领先经济指标指数。经济学家们预计，该指数将连续第四个月上涨，从而进一步证明美国经济正在触底反弹。在以往的经济衰退中，只有在制造业和总体经济复苏后，就业市场才会好转。部分基于这个原因，股市往往会在失业人数继续上升时开始反弹。但迄今却没有什么证据显示，仍处于疲弱状态的经济活动很快将足以抵消高失业率造成的不利影响。在出现这种证据前，股市买家们还是小心为妙。Mark Gongloff相关阅读美国股市与信贷市场为何脱钩？ 2009-08-18美国消费者债务压力阻碍股市复苏 2009-08-10乐观的就业报告推高美国股市 2009-08-10美国失业状况缓解，经济企稳促失业率下降 2009-08-07美国失业速度放缓 复苏仍面压力 2009-08-06多项就业指标显示经济复苏尚未来临 2009-07-09


Aside from the worst job market in a generation, the economy is doing just fine.So far, that has been good enough for the stock market, which has responded to signs of an economic bottom by rallying relentlessly, only occasionally and briefly worrying about the lack of spending power from millions of unemployed people.Fresh evidence of this split could come with a slew of data Thursday morning. First, the Labor Department releases its weekly tally of new claims for state unemployment benefits. Economists think claims slipped to 550,000 from 558,000 a week earlier.Claims are off sharply from their 26-year peak of 674,000 in late March. Such declines historically flag the end of recessions.But claims at this level are still consistent with payroll declines of roughly 450,000 a month, estimates Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR.Investors also will watch the number of people drawing benefits, which has recently ebbed from a record high of more than 6.8 million and may have fallen below 6.2 million in the latest week, some economists estimate.But many unemployed Americans are exhausting state benefits. The number drawing extended benefits from the federal government is still rising, hitting 2.8 million at last count.'With nearly 9.3 million workers estimated to be receiving either regular or extended benefits,' Nomura Securities chief economist David Resler wrote, 'strains on housing and the overall economy from the weak job market remain.'Later Thursday, the market might get more encouraging numbers. The Philadelphia Fed will release its latest index of mid-Atlantic region factory activity, which could turn positive for the first time since September 2008.And the Conference Board releases its latest index of leading economic indicators. Economists expect a fourth consecutive gain, further evidence of an economic bottom.In past recessions, the job market has only recovered after manufacturing and the broader economy turned around. Partly for that reason, stocks often recover even as unemployment rises.But there is yet little evidence that the still-anemic level of economic activity will soon be powerful enough to offset the effects of epic joblessness. Until it does, stock buyers should be wary.Mark Gongloff