Pump up the Volume: We Know it’s August, But C’mon.
我们曾认为，周三中国股市的暴跌会引发美国股市的下挫。但我们错了。投资者没有理会上证综合指数4.3%的跌幅，而是将目光转向了美国经济出乎意料的好于预期的报告上，这是一个值得欢迎的迹象。但除了道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数的一波三折外，一些市场观察人士还在关注最近相当清淡的成交量数据。不错，现在是8月，许多华尔街的交易员都逃离闷热的曼哈顿，前往长岛汉伯顿享受阳光和沙滩了。因此交投清淡一些也在意料之中。结合以往的情况，需要指出的是，今年8月的交投并不像去年那么低迷。2008年8月的日均成交量比当年的日均成交量大概低15%。（当然，在去年8月之后金融危机进入最严峻的时期时，成交量开始大幅增加。）而根据道琼斯的统计，今年8月以来，纽约证交所平均日成交量平均为58.8亿股，仅比今年以来的日均成交量低了0.3%。不过，应该注意的是，8月初美国国际集团(AIG)房利美(Fannie Mae)房地美(Freddie Mac)和花旗集团(Citigroup)等股票的成交量曾出现有些神秘的大幅增加。此后市场逐渐平静下来，最近已变得更为平静了。周三的总成交量为44.1亿股，比65天平均水平低了16.2%。市场人士表示，他们正在密切关注成交量的下降，当与其它市场指标相互验证时，可能就是看跌的信号。Asbury Research的研究主管科萨尔(John Kosar)说，股价上涨时成交量下降，这对我来说是个预警信号。他马上又表示，不见得在见到成交量清淡后就要立刻卖出手中的股票，转而持有现金。他说，这只是近期存在不利影响的一种迹象。那么，这么低的成交量是每年这个时间股市都会经历的正常反映，还是将会发生什么事情？很难说。RBC Wealth Management的股票策略主管菲尔•道(Phil Dow)说，除了正常的季节性下降之外，市场也普遍预期股市将出现调整，这令投资者不愿购买。与此同时，人们看到他们手中持有的股票脱离了3月初的低点，所以他们不愿意出售。结果呢？就是一种股票瘫痪症。他说，我的看法就是，目前人们投资股市的欲望不强。Banyan Partners首席市场策略师帕弗里克(Robert Pavlik)在谈到成交量走软时说，这说明信心正在减弱。人们没有参与到市场中。这不是一个非常积极的信号。我会非常谨慎地看到价升量减。Matt Phillips（“市场脉动”深入华尔街内部，寻找影响市场的新闻，分析引起关注的走势和数据，由Matt Phillips主笔。）相关阅读摩根大通：中美股市关联度增加 2009-08-20美国股市与信贷市场为何脱钩？ 2009-08-18新牛市来临？道氏理论也莫衷一是 2009-08-06美国股市短期会因何回调？ 2009-08-05美国股市上涨还有多少后劲？ 2009-08-05
We figured Wednesday’s steep stock drop in Shanghai would have to result in a down day stateside. But we figured wrong. Investors shrugged off the 4.3% fall off in the Shanghai Composite Index, opting to focus on a surprising U.S. report showing the economy gulping more fuel than expected - a welcome sign of life.But besides the meanderings of the Dow and S&P some market watchers have been eyeing volume numbers which have been pretty piddling lately. True, it is August, when plenty of Wall Street players skulk away from muggy Manhattan for their share of sun and sand in the Hamptons. So a bit of sluggishness is to be expected.For a bit of context, it’s worth pointing out that this August isn’t quite as slow as last year. In 2008, the average daily volume in August was roughly 15% lower than the average daily volume for the year. (Granted, volumes really started to skyrocket last year after August when the worst of the financial crisis hit.) So far this August, the average daily composite NYSE volume is hovering around 5.88 billion shares, that’s only 0.3% less than the daily average for the year-to-date, according to Dow Jones stat crunchers.It’s important to note, however, August volume was goosed early on by a somewhat mysterious surge in interest in stocks such as AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Citigroup. That has since calmed down and the markets have gotten even quieter lately. Wednesday saw total composite volume hit 4.41 billion, down 16.2% from the 65-day average.Market seers say they’re keeping a close eye on evaporating volume, which ─ when triangulated with other market metrics ─ can be a bearish signal. “Low volume when prices have been generally going higher, to me that’s a red flag,” said John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research. He’s quick to stress that you shouldn’t necessarily see low volume as the time to sell out of your positions and stuff cash into your couch cushions. “It’s just a near term indication that has negative implications.”So does the low volume we’re seeing reflect the normal stock market lull experienced during this time of year? Or is there something else going on? Tough to say. Phil Dow, director of equity strategy for RBC Wealth Management, says that beyond the normal seasonal decline there’s also a widespread market expectation of a coming correction, making investors reluctant to buy. At the same time, people have seen shares they already own rise from the early March lows, so they’re loathe to sell. The result? A sort of equity paralysis. “There’s not much of a proclivity to invest right now, is how I see it,” he said.“It’s telling me there’s a lack of conviction. People just are not participating in this,” said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners, of the soft volume figures. “It’s not a very positive signal. I would be very leery of an up day on light volume.”Matt Phillips
We figured Wednesday’s steep stock drop in Shanghai would have to result in a down day stateside. But we figured wrong. Investors shrugged off the 4.3% fall off in the Shanghai Composite Index, opting to focus on a surprising U.S. report showing the economy gulping more fuel than expected - a welcome sign of life.But besides the meanderings of the Dow and S&P some market watchers have been eyeing volume numbers which have been pretty piddling lately. True, it is August, when plenty of Wall Street players skulk away from muggy Manhattan for their share of sun and sand in the Hamptons. So a bit of sluggishness is to be expected.For a bit of context, it’s worth pointing out that this August isn’t quite as slow as last year. In 2008, the average daily volume in August was roughly 15% lower than the average daily volume for the year. (Granted, volumes really started to skyrocket last year after August when the worst of the financial crisis hit.) So far this August, the average daily composite NYSE volume is hovering around 5.88 billion shares, that’s only 0.3% less than the daily average for the year-to-date, according to Dow Jones stat crunchers.It’s important to note, however, August volume was goosed early on by a somewhat mysterious surge in interest in stocks such as AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Citigroup. That has since calmed down and the markets have gotten even quieter lately. Wednesday saw total composite volume hit 4.41 billion, down 16.2% from the 65-day average.Market seers say they’re keeping a close eye on evaporating volume, which ─ when triangulated with other market metrics ─ can be a bearish signal. “Low volume when prices have been generally going higher, to me that’s a red flag,” said John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research. He’s quick to stress that you shouldn’t necessarily see low volume as the time to sell out of your positions and stuff cash into your couch cushions. “It’s just a near term indication that has negative implications.”So does the low volume we’re seeing reflect the normal stock market lull experienced during this time of year? Or is there something else going on? Tough to say. Phil Dow, director of equity strategy for RBC Wealth Management, says that beyond the normal seasonal decline there’s also a widespread market expectation of a coming correction, making investors reluctant to buy. At the same time, people have seen shares they already own rise from the early March lows, so they’re loathe to sell. The result? A sort of equity paralysis. “There’s not much of a proclivity to invest right now, is how I see it,” he said.“It’s telling me there’s a lack of conviction. People just are not participating in this,” said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners, of the soft volume figures. “It’s not a very positive signal. I would be very leery of an up day on light volume.”Matt Phillips