China's Loan Dilemma

中国银行业在政府的敦促下一直积极放贷。但这可能不会像一些投资者希望的那样推动企业利润增长。中国银行业今年第一季度新增贷款约合6,400亿美元，几乎相当于2008年全年的新增贷款额，较上年同期增长25%。即使考虑到中国银行业第一季度新增信贷往往会占到全年新增贷款额多数以上这一事实，一季度新增贷款额的飙升幅度也是十分可观的。这令投资者对中国企业的增长和盈利前景充满了期许。中国股市今年迄今为止已上涨了41%。银行业大举放贷是否能使中国企业的利润重振雄风目前还不清楚。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)提供的数据显示，今年第一季度中国上市公司的净利润较上年同期下降了26%。中国已经存在产能过剩问题，因此，在产品的真实需求(无论来自国内还是海外)出现回升之前，企业通过举债来增加产能的做法有可能使自己的利润不断受到挤压。以中国的钢铁业为例。由于产量大幅增长(中国3月份的钢产量较2月份增长了12%)，钢铁供应已经过剩。中国钢铁行业收入今年第一季度下降了22%，盈利前景也不光明。那些没有被用于业务扩张的贷款也另有让人担心之处。有迹象显示，银行放出的这类贷款往往被存进高息储蓄帐户吃利息去了，更有甚者，还有一部分这类贷款被投入了股市。这两种资金使用方法都无助于推动企业利润真正实现增长，事实上后一种做法还会威胁企业利润的真实增长。新增贷款的这种大幅飙升无论如何是不能长期持续的。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)说，如果2009年全年的新增贷款增幅都维持第一季度的水平，那么到今年12月31日时，中国的贷款余额将相当于国内生产总值的150%。一些决策人士已经担心，中国金融体系的坏帐比率将会上升。但这些鹰派人士不大可能通过相关政策把自己的这种担心全部化解掉。因为许多人认为，中国去年过于从紧的货币政策加速了中国经济增长放缓的进程。因此，中国银行业的放贷之门有可能还要多洞开一段时间。不过别指望这一定能给中国企业带来投资者所希望的那种前景。Andrew Peaple相关阅读中国央行胆子应小一点 2009-04-23中国监管机构调查信贷流向 2009-04-16大举放贷为中国银行业埋下隐患 2009-03-26中国银行业放贷量一枝独秀 2009-03-09 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年05月06日09:14', 'F.MI'));菲亚特公司英文名称：Fiat S.p.A.总部地点：意大利(Italy)上市地点：米兰股票代码：FIAdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年05月06日09:14', 'FIATY'));Fiat S.p.a. (ads)总部地点：意大利(Italy)上市地点：美国场外交易粉单市场(Pink Sheet)股票代码：FIATY


Urged by the government to lend, China's banks have dutifully complied. This may not prove the boon to corporate earnings that some investors are hoping for.The banks made about $640 billion of new loans in the first quarter, almost as much as in all of 2008 and around a 25% year-to-year growth rate.Leaving aside Chinese banks' tendency to make most of their new loans early in the year, this is a remarkable surge. It has investors excited about the prospects for corporate growth and earnings; Chinese stocks are up 41% so far this year.Whether the lending will actually revive corporate profits isn't clear. In the first quarter, net profit at Chinese listed firms fell 26% from a year before, J.P. Morgan says.China already has an overcapacity problem, so loans that finance increased production could keep bottom lines depressed until real demand for its goods returns, whether from within or outside the country.Consider the country's steel sector. Having ramped up output -- production increased 12% in March from February -- the steel mills have created a glut. Revenue for the industry fell 22% in the first quarter, and the earnings outlook is grim.Loans that don't fund business expansion raise worries of a different kind. There are signs that this borrowing is being parked in high-interest-bearing accounts or, worse, invested in stocks. Neither is going to drive meaningful earnings growth; indeed, the latter threatens to undermine it.In any case, the pace of new lending can't continue for much longer. If the first quarter's rate of loan growth persisted throughout 2009, outstanding loans would be around 150% of gross domestic product on Dec. 31, Morgan Stanley says.Some policy makers already are raising concerns that a high number of bad loans will clog up the financial system. These hawks aren't likely to have it all their way; too-tight monetary policy this time last year is blamed by many for the speed with which China's growth slowed.So the taps could remain open a while longer. Not that this will necessarily translate into the kind of outlook for Chinese companies that investors are expecting.Andrew Peaple