Trying To Spot Crisis' Bottom In Jobs Report

美国股市可能不会因周五将公布的糟糕就业报告而下滑，但或许它应该下滑。经济学家估计，劳工部将公布1月份非农就业人数减少52•5万人，失业率从7.2%升至7.5%，是1992年9月以来的最高水平。自去年4月份以来的8个月，美国失业率已上升2.2个百分点，是1974-75年以来相同时间间隔最大幅度的上升。一些观察人士认为，失业率高速上升意味着就业市场即将触底。不过，虽然首次申请失业救济人数目前已升至1982年以来的最高水平，似乎并无触底的迹象。法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)策略师艾德华(Albert Edwards)周四在给客户的报告中说：如果全球经济循环正在触底的话，我就把自己和不管哪位客户的帽子吃下去。1月份的就业数据乍看上去或许还会不错。政府通常会根据假日季节的用工和退工现象对数据进行调整，1月份数据的季节性调整因素主要是零售商在1月份裁减临时工。但由于这个假日季节美国零售商并未大规模雇工，之后需要辞退的也不多。1月份的实际结果可能好于预期。不过，不管怎么样，股市或许会对坏消息习以为常。失业数据通常属于滞后经济指标，而股市通常更看重预期，因此，即使失业指标上升，股市往往已经开始上涨。过去三次公布就业数据的时候，不管数字有多糟糕，有两次股市当天仍是上涨的。但失业对企业利润的打击是实实在在的。据花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家Steven Wieting说，失业率的预期走势曲线与非金融机构2009年利润走势预期吻合。预期非金融机构今年利润将下降20%。这个幅度高于市场普遍预期，使现在的股价看起来并不算便宜。Mark Gongloff


Stocks mightn't fall on a bad jobs report Friday, but perhaps they should.Economists estimate the Labor Department will report that nonfarm payrolls shed 525,000 jobs in January and that the unemployment rate hopped to 7.5%, from 7.2%, the highest since September 1992.Unemployment has already soared 2.2 percentage points since last April, the worst eight-month stretch since 1974-75. The speed of the rise has some observers thinking employment's nadir is near -- though with new jobless claims at their highest since October 1982, there is no sign that is the case.'If the global economic cycle is hitting bottom,' Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards said in a Thursday note, 'I will eat my and any other hat clients produce.'January's payroll numbers might at first blush look OK. The government makes seasonal adjustments to account for holiday hiring and firing, adjustments that expect retailers to lay off temporary workers in January. As retailers didn't actually hire much for the holidays, they had fewer to let go. The net result could be better-than-expected January payrolls.The stock market might take bad news as old news in any event. Unemployment is typically a lagging economic indicator, while supposedly forward-looking stocks tend to start rising even as joblessness grows. The market has rallied on two of the past three jobs-report days, despite how dismal they have been.But unemployment hurts corporate profits in real time. The expected trajectory for unemployment is consistent with a 20% decline in 2009 in nonfinancial profits, according to Citigroup economist Steven Wieting.That is a steeper decline than the consensus expects and makes stocks look a little less cheap.Mark Gongloff