Inflation Fears Are Overstated
不久以前，我们曾接到有关恶性通货紧缩前景的警告。如今，我们又听到了同样可怕的可能爆发通货膨胀的警告。这就如同正为一场史无前例的干旱做着准备，却突然被告知：不用担心！准备应付堪比圣经中大洪水规模的涝灾吧。不要过分担心通货膨胀最近，可能爆发通货膨胀的警告再次传来。《华尔街日报》经济栏目的编辑David Wessel认为警告夸大其词了，并解释了通货膨胀不可能在美国立即爆发的原因。就在3月中旬，有关美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)讨论的会议纪要还显示，几位美联储官员认为通货膨胀率可能继续保持在令人满意的水平之下。但到了4月底，他们松了一口气，认为由于政府的大规模支出减税，以及央行积极放贷，长期通货紧缩的风险已经降低。现在，人们指控美联储为避免通货紧缩和经济衰退而采取了过多的措施，以至通货膨胀几乎无法避免，对此，美联储官员开始为自己进行辩解。通货膨胀不可能立即爆发。工业化国家的消费者价格在过去一年里的升幅（0.6%）比经合组织(OECD) 1971年开始记录这一数据以来的任何12个月都要低。在美国，失业率高达8.9%，分析师预计将在2011年升至9%以上。美国企业的开工率比美联储1948年开始记录以来的任何时期都要低。很难看到企业轻松涨价，或是工人赢得加薪。通货膨胀的标准要素──过多的资金追逐过少的商品──并未出现。更重要的问题是未来的状况如何。市场对此感到焦虑。债券市场推高了美国国债的收益率。金价再度逼近每盎司1,000美元大关。大宗商品价格出现上涨。我们不难发现负债累累的政府把通胀作为减轻偿债负担，或央行矫枉过正的先例。但要出现什么情况，才会让通货膨胀率飞速突破大多数美联储官员心目中2%的理想目标？计算错误。美联储和奥巴马总统的经济学家可能担忧过头了，他们太想避免1937-38年做得过多（当时过早采取的紧缩措施让美国经济再度陷入了衰退）和2004年时做得不够（当时美联储可能将短期利率保持在低位太长时间了）的情况。或是正如美联储部分内部人士所认为的那样，经济的疲弱程度不像表面看起来那么严重。或者是2010年选举日时失业率升至10%的前景可能促使民主党采取另一轮经济刺激措施，或另一轮企业救助计划，而这新一轮刺激措施被证明是没有必要的，并未刺激美联储提高利率。只有在美联储没有发现和没有做出反应的情况下，计算错误才能引发严重的通货膨胀。意愿不够坚决。美联储的一些内部人士担忧，它可能缺乏加息和抽干信贷的狠心。他们抱怨说，美联储没有制定退出策略。问题出在人和政治方面。为避免发生通货膨胀，美联储在民众和政治家们希望它采取行动前就必须出手。虽然美联储主席贝南克发誓说，在该出手时绝不会迟疑，但他在收紧货币政策方面的能力还未受到过考验，而他的美联储主席任期将于2010年1月份到期。他或他的继任者可能发现，美联储与财政部的各种救助措施已缠绕得如此紧密，美联储可能会缺少必要的灵活性和独立性。或许贝南克有可能发现，在国会正考虑修改美联储的监管职能和权责之际，要收紧货币政策是很困难的。抑或美国的预算赤字届时可能变得如此庞大，以致于美联储不愿意缩减债券购买规模并大幅加息以降低预算赤字。虽然美联储有权有势，但它的领导者毕竟是人，他们也会犯丧失勇气和智慧的错误。成为周边环境的受害者。随着世界各地的贷款机构抽资离去，许多负债累累的新兴市场国家都出现了本币暴跌。本币汇率下跌会推高进口产品价格，并会在失业率依然居高不下的时候引发通货膨胀。美国依然是世界上最受欢迎货币的发行国，它虽然不是阿根廷，但对于向海外举债的沉溺已经使美国比以往任何时候都更像一个新兴市场国家。美元暴跌有可能推高油价(油价会随着美元汇率的下跌而上扬)和其他进口产品的价格。即使这没有引发通货膨胀，也有可能导致利率的上扬。要降低这一风险，就要尽早采取措施抑制长期预算赤字，以降低债权人落荒而逃的可能性。一种被自己弄假成真的恐惧。未来在失业率依然居高不下美联储对通货膨胀并未放松警惕的情况下，如果消费者工人企业以及投资者都预计通货膨胀率将会上扬，他们就有可能狂热地推高物价并要求增加工资，公然藐视经济学家和美联储官员有关没有理由担心通货膨胀的断言，从而将他们所害怕的东西变为现实。通货膨胀预期并不总是与客观的经济现实相一致的。贝南克之所以不断发誓要维持物价稳定，就是要避免人们的通货膨胀预期失控。上世纪70年代末，由于各国央行印了如此多钞票，世界出现了严重的通货膨胀，最终导致了80年代初的严重经济衰退。这件事给所有人一个谁都不想再次经历的教训。在这次经济大恐慌期间，美联储和其他国家的央行曾尽一切努力来避免经济萧条和通货紧缩。现在的问题是，各国央行及我们大家能否汲取上世纪70年代末的教训，尽可能避免通货膨胀。或许现在的问题是每一代地球人是否都必须汲取一个新的历史教训。David Wessel相关阅读格林斯潘：Fed官员已清楚认识到未来的通货膨胀风险 2009-06-04黄金价格有望重回每盎司1,000美元 2009-06-03另类基金：去年押对股灾，今年专赌通胀 2009-06-02韩国5月份通货膨胀率降至2.7%，创20个月新低 2009-06-01欧洲央行Constancio：今明两年通货膨胀率将远低于2% 2009-05-27
Not so long ago, we were warned about the prospect of devastating deflation, a widespread decline in wages and prices. Today, we hear equally dire warnings of an outbreak of inflation. It's like preparing for an epochal drought and suddenly being told, 'Never mind! Get ready for a flood of Biblical proportions.'As recently as mid-March, minutes of Federal Reserve deliberations show, several Fed officials thought 'inflation was likely to persist below desirable levels.' But at the end of April, they concluded, with a sigh of relief, that 'the risk of a protracted period of deflation had diminished,' thanks to massive government spending and tax cuts and aggressive central-bank lending. Now Fed officials find themselves on the defensive, accused of doing so much to avert deflation and depression that inflation is nearly inevitable.An immediate outbreak of inflation is improbable. Consumer prices in industrialized countries have risen less in the past year (0.6%) than in any 12 months since the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development began keeping records in 1971. In the U.S., unemployment is at 8.9%, and forecasters see it hovering above 9% into 2011. American industry is operating further from full capacity than at any time since the Fed began keeping track in 1948. It's hard to see companies easily raising prices or workers winning raises. The standard ingredients of inflation -- too much money chasing too few goods -- aren't in evidence.The bigger question is what's ahead. Markets are anxious. The bond market has pushed up yields on Treasury debt. Gold is nearing $1,000 an ounce again. Commodity prices are rising. It's easy to cite historical precedents for heavily indebted governments accepting inflation as a way to lighten the burden of repayment or for central banks overdoing whatever they're doing.But what would have to happen for inflation to soar above the 2% target that most Fed officials set for their favorite gauge?A miscalculation. The Fed and President Barack Obama's economists could be worrying too much about avoiding 1937-38 (when premature tightening plunged the U.S. economy back into recession) and not enough about 2004 (when the Fed may have kept short-term rates too low too long). Or there could be less slack in the economy than appears on the surface, a view held by some inside the Fed. Or the prospect of 10% unemployment on Election Day 2010 could prompt Democrats to push another round of fiscal stimulus -- or another set of corporate bailouts -- that proves unneeded and doesn't spur the Fed to raise interest rates. A miscalculation would produce big inflation only if the Fed failed to see and react to it.A failure of will. The Fed could lack the fortitude to raise rates and drain credit, a worry among some Fed insiders who complain, 'There is no exit strategy.' The problem is human and political. To avoid inflation, the Fed must move sooner than citizens and politicians will like. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke vows to be tough, but he hasn't been tested on this side of the monetary mountain -- and his term expires in January 2010. He or his successor may find Fed lending so intertwined with the Treasury's bailouts that the Fed lacks the flexibility and independence it needs. Or he may find tightening tough while Congress is contemplating changes to the Fed's governance and powers. Or the budget deficit may be so large that the Fed is unwilling to curtail its bond buying and raise rates sufficiently to offset it. The Fed is mighty, but its leaders human -- and prone to failures of courage as well as wisdom.A victim of circumstance. Plenty of indebted emerging-market countries have seen currencies collapse as global lenders flee. A falling exchange rate pushes up the prices of imports and can produce inflation even while unemployment remains high. The U.S., still the keeper of the world's most popular currency, is not Argentina. But its addiction to borrowing from abroad makes it more like an emerging market than ever. A collapse in the dollar could push up oil prices (which rise when the dollar falls) and other import prices. Even if that didn't spark inflation, it could prompt an untimely increase in interest rates. Reducing this risk means moving soon to restrain the long-term budget deficit so creditors are less likely to bolt.A self-fulfilling fear. Unemployment may be high and the Fed vigilant, but if consumers, workers, businesses and investors all expect inflation, they could realize their fears -- by pushing up prices and demanding higher wages in a mania that defies the assertions of economists and Fed officials that there's no reason for inflation. Inflation expectations are not always tethered to objective economic reality. Mr. Bernanke's repeated vows to maintain price stability are aimed at keeping those expectations under control.In late 1970s, central bankers printed so much money that we got the Great Inflation. That ended painfully in the deep recession of the early '80s and taught everyone a never-again lesson. During the Great Panic of our time, the Fed and its counterparts did whatever it took to prevent depression and deflation. The question now is whether central bankers and the rest of us will remember the lessons of the late '70s and do whatever it takes to avoid inflation. Or whether each generation has to learn the lesson anew.David Wessel
Not so long ago, we were warned about the prospect of devastating deflation, a widespread decline in wages and prices. Today, we hear equally dire warnings of an outbreak of inflation. It's like preparing for an epochal drought and suddenly being told, 'Never mind! Get ready for a flood of Biblical proportions.'As recently as mid-March, minutes of Federal Reserve deliberations show, several Fed officials thought 'inflation was likely to persist below desirable levels.' But at the end of April, they concluded, with a sigh of relief, that 'the risk of a protracted period of deflation had diminished,' thanks to massive government spending and tax cuts and aggressive central-bank lending. Now Fed officials find themselves on the defensive, accused of doing so much to avert deflation and depression that inflation is nearly inevitable.An immediate outbreak of inflation is improbable. Consumer prices in industrialized countries have risen less in the past year (0.6%) than in any 12 months since the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development began keeping records in 1971. In the U.S., unemployment is at 8.9%, and forecasters see it hovering above 9% into 2011. American industry is operating further from full capacity than at any time since the Fed began keeping track in 1948. It's hard to see companies easily raising prices or workers winning raises. The standard ingredients of inflation -- too much money chasing too few goods -- aren't in evidence.The bigger question is what's ahead. Markets are anxious. The bond market has pushed up yields on Treasury debt. Gold is nearing $1,000 an ounce again. Commodity prices are rising. It's easy to cite historical precedents for heavily indebted governments accepting inflation as a way to lighten the burden of repayment or for central banks overdoing whatever they're doing.But what would have to happen for inflation to soar above the 2% target that most Fed officials set for their favorite gauge?A miscalculation. The Fed and President Barack Obama's economists could be worrying too much about avoiding 1937-38 (when premature tightening plunged the U.S. economy back into recession) and not enough about 2004 (when the Fed may have kept short-term rates too low too long). Or there could be less slack in the economy than appears on the surface, a view held by some inside the Fed. Or the prospect of 10% unemployment on Election Day 2010 could prompt Democrats to push another round of fiscal stimulus -- or another set of corporate bailouts -- that proves unneeded and doesn't spur the Fed to raise interest rates. A miscalculation would produce big inflation only if the Fed failed to see and react to it.A failure of will. The Fed could lack the fortitude to raise rates and drain credit, a worry among some Fed insiders who complain, 'There is no exit strategy.' The problem is human and political. To avoid inflation, the Fed must move sooner than citizens and politicians will like. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke vows to be tough, but he hasn't been tested on this side of the monetary mountain -- and his term expires in January 2010. He or his successor may find Fed lending so intertwined with the Treasury's bailouts that the Fed lacks the flexibility and independence it needs. Or he may find tightening tough while Congress is contemplating changes to the Fed's governance and powers. Or the budget deficit may be so large that the Fed is unwilling to curtail its bond buying and raise rates sufficiently to offset it. The Fed is mighty, but its leaders human -- and prone to failures of courage as well as wisdom.A victim of circumstance. Plenty of indebted emerging-market countries have seen currencies collapse as global lenders flee. A falling exchange rate pushes up the prices of imports and can produce inflation even while unemployment remains high. The U.S., still the keeper of the world's most popular currency, is not Argentina. But its addiction to borrowing from abroad makes it more like an emerging market than ever. A collapse in the dollar could push up oil prices (which rise when the dollar falls) and other import prices. Even if that didn't spark inflation, it could prompt an untimely increase in interest rates. Reducing this risk means moving soon to restrain the long-term budget deficit so creditors are less likely to bolt.A self-fulfilling fear. Unemployment may be high and the Fed vigilant, but if consumers, workers, businesses and investors all expect inflation, they could realize their fears -- by pushing up prices and demanding higher wages in a mania that defies the assertions of economists and Fed officials that there's no reason for inflation. Inflation expectations are not always tethered to objective economic reality. Mr. Bernanke's repeated vows to maintain price stability are aimed at keeping those expectations under control.In late 1970s, central bankers printed so much money that we got the Great Inflation. That ended painfully in the deep recession of the early '80s and taught everyone a never-again lesson. During the Great Panic of our time, the Fed and its counterparts did whatever it took to prevent depression and deflation. The question now is whether central bankers and the rest of us will remember the lessons of the late '70s and do whatever it takes to avoid inflation. Or whether each generation has to learn the lesson anew.David Wessel