A Crucial Summer For Japan's Carmakers

不用在意美国之外的最新汽车销售数据；在美国市场，日本汽车生产商正开始获得领先于美国同行的一些重大优势。拿打折来说。美国5月份销售数据表明，通用汽车(General Motors)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler)进行的大甩卖帮助它们从日本的三大竞争对手手中夺取了市场份额。福特(Ford)当月收获最丰，这要得益于另外两家美国汽车巨头都面临困境。通用汽车和克莱斯勒均在不久前申请破产保护，随着这两家公司清理存货大幅削减经销商数量，这股打折销售的潮流可能还将持续几个月。然而考虑到本田(Honda Motor)丰田(Toyota Motor)和日产(Nissan Motor)三家日资汽车公司的资产负债表状况更为强劲，不难看出哪一方能够推出更大的打折力度并能持续更长时间。对汽车进行促销令美国和日本生产厂商都耗费了不菲的现金。购车网站Edmunds.com的数据显示，仅5月份包括返还现金在内的促销措施总额达26亿美元，而日本公司的促销措施力度很大，占总额的四分之一以上。然而按每辆车的成本计算，本田和日产的促销开支仍远远低于美国竞争对手。本田传统上对促销十分谨慎，5月份该公司在每辆车上的促销开支为1,626美元，较上年同期增加42%；日产为2,790美元。相比之下，克莱斯勒5月份每辆车促销成本为4,159美元，较上年同期增加15%。日本汽车厂商在中小型汽车市场也占有较高的份额，这一点具有重大意义，因为奥巴马政府正在推行更严格的能效标准，油价也再度悄然攀升。日本汽车三巨头所生产的汽车有一半以上为中小型车，而这三家公司加起来占美国市场三分之一以上的份额。据市场调查公司Autodata的数据，通用汽车的中小型车比例为36%，克莱斯勒为23%。里昂证券（亚洲)(CLSA)的里克特(Chris Richter)说，本田丰田和日产到2011年3月将合计增加7.2%的美国市场份额，令它们在美国市场的总份额达到42%，而通用汽车和克莱斯勒的市场份额将会下滑。这主要是因为这两家美国公司的经销商和车型将会减少。当然，风险也会存在。受通用汽车和其他美国厂商的困境冲击，美国汽车部件供应商可能崩溃，从而中断为日本公司进行的生产。日本公司也从这些供应商处购买部件。但日本汽车厂商说它们拥有或正在研究应急预案，包括寻找多个供应商。今年夏天可能会展示出日本汽车厂商的准备有多充分。James Simms相关阅读丰田普锐斯汽车5月日本销量增一倍，首次居单月销量排行榜榜首 2009-06-04通用汽车破产料将对日本汽车生产商有利 2009-06-03美国主要汽车厂商5月创年内最佳销量 2009-06-03日本5月份国内汽车销量较上年同期下降19.4% 2009-06-01日本4月份汽车出口下降64.7% 2009-05-29


Never mind the latest car sales numbers out of the U.S.; Japanese car makers are beginning to gain some serious advantages over their U.S. counterparts in the American market.Take discounts. U.S. figures for May showed that fire sales at General Motors and Chrysler helped them to grab market share from the Big Three Japanese competitors. Ford made the largest gains that month benefiting from the troubles of its U.S. rivals.This discounting trend could hold for a few months as GM and Chrysler, which filed for bankruptcy protection recently, clear inventories and slash the number of dealerships.And given the stronger balance sheets of Honda Motor, Toyota Motor and Nissan Motor, it's not difficult to see who can discount more - and for longer.Incentives on car sales cost both domestic and Japanese makers some serious cash. In all in the U.S., such incentives, including rebates, totaled $2.6 billion in May alone, says Edmunds.com, with Japanese firms accounting for over a quarter thanks to aggressive measures.Still, in per-car terms, Honda and Nissan are spending far less than their U.S. rivals. Honda, which is traditionally wary of incentives, spent $1,626 per car in May, up 42% on year; Nissan, $2,790. By comparison, Chrysler's incentive per car rose 15% on year to $4,159 in May.Japanese car makers also have a higher proportion of small and medium-size cars, crucial as the Obama administration pushes for tougher fuel-economy standards and gasoline prices creep up again.Over half the cars made by Japan's Big Three, which together have over a third of the U.S. market, are in those two segments. At GM, that figure is 36%; at Chrysler, 23%, according to Autodata.Honda, Toyota and Nissan may pick up a combined 7.2 percentage points in U.S. market share, taking it to 42% through March 2011, at the expense of GM and Chrysler, says CLSA's Chris Richter. That's mainly because the U.S. companies will have fewer dealers and models.For sure, there are risks. U.S. car parts suppliers, hit by the troubles at GM and others, could collapse, disrupting production for the Japanese firms, who buy from the same suppliers. But Japan's auto makers say they have, or are hammering out, contingency plans, including having multiple suppliers.This summer may show just how well prepared they are.James Simms