Obama's Dow 5000
尊敬的奥巴马总统： 不幸的是，美国股市真的不喜欢你。 你上任仅仅一个月，投资者就缴械投降了。要是道指再跌上30%，那咱们就只能5000点见了。 股指跌到那步田地可就不是损害你总统威望的问题了。随之而来的储蓄及养老金体系崩塌有可能让你总统的位子坐不稳。Dennis K. Berman现在，有一些顾问可能会建议你别去担心股市，说它会自己复原的。这话不对，尤其是在眼下这段日子。究其核心，市场不外乎是一个衡量信心度的标尺──投资者相信通过收购一部分美国的资产能给自己带来收益。 道指的大跌表明，他们不那么相信美国了，或者说，不那么相信总统你了。 你需要改变这种局面，而且行动要快。以下是我的一些建议： 1. 效法里根(Ronald Reagan)，别学卡特(Jimmy Carter)每个人都知道经济情况很糟。每个人都知道你的做事方式是少做承诺多见实效。 但是，如果美国经济在一年后还没缓过劲儿来，那么你就会被认为要对此负责。 你是美国希望和梦想的头号推销员。别再表示哀悼了，走出门去，将乐观情绪传递给人们吧。2. 阶级冲突够多了别再被假象所蒙蔽。华盛顿所有口若悬河的反华尔街民粹人士都害怕投资者当真将枪口对准他们。 白宫新闻秘书攻击CNBC电视频道主持人里克·桑塔利(Rick Santelli)能带来什么好处呢。这会让人觉得白宫看起来很脆弱，而且和市场离得很远。 或许你正是这样。不然的话你怎么会给参议员多德(Christopher Dodd)提出的高管限薪法案签字放行？且不说这份补充法案是个怎么草率拟成的报复性公众政策，除了那些提出该议案的政客们，它根本无益于任何人的利益。告诉参议院多数党领袖哈里·瑞德(Harry Reid)众议院议长南茜·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)以及你自己的幕僚，别再扯着嗓门儿说什么“人们的愤怒”了，大选早就结束了。3. 彻底排除银行被国有化的可能──就算你自己在这件事上还拿不准，你也要这么做。 让你的财长立刻发表声明，说根本没打算将花旗(Citi)和美国银行(Bank of America)收归国有。考虑到这些银行的股价已经非常之低，而且政府已经对它们采取了支撑措施，这种话很大程度上只是个说辞而已。 如果你必须在几个月后将全面国有化重新提上议事日程，那又怎么样呢？ 到时候盖特纳(Geithner)可以说是情况有变。而且届时局面肯定会变化。局势每天都在发生变化。 4. 和华尔街讲和 去纽约和金融业人士握个手吧；只要你大驾光临，就能为市场带来一些信心。 和两周前遭众议院金融服务委员会主席弗兰克(Barney Frank)痛骂的八位银行CEO们见个面吧。你可以在镜头前痛斥他们，然后宣称健康的美国需要健康的华尔街。你可以在纽约交易所交易大厅宣布美国证券交易委员会(SEC)正在恢复加价规则，以此保护散户投资者的利益。华尔街会给你英雄般的欢迎。 5. 搁置自由派和民主党人钟爱的议案为什么你的民主党同仁们那么热衷于威吓美国的工业企业？ 如今美国公司被吓得还不够吗？告诉我们你希望美国企业能够东山再起。对于那个魏克斯曼(Henry Waxman)，你要明确说“不”。此人主张最高法院取消对起诉医疗设备厂家设置的限制。此外，虽然你正在着手处理《雇员自主选择法》(Employee Free Choice Act)，但你应该呼吁给它来个无限期推迟。这种带有反商界色彩的法案可是股市大忌。6. 让两党之争靠边站当参议员格雷格(Judd Gregg)拒绝接受商务部部长提名而且你的经济刺激方案只从共和党捞到三票时，投资者的心都揪起来了。让这种党派之争成为过去吧。 和共和党人联起手来，让通用汽车(GM)破产。反正它也是走投无路了。倒不如用它来示好共和党人，让自己在政治上吃得开些。当然，这些措施中没有一条能保证股市将稳步上扬。当然，你很多民主党同志都会将你斥为叛徒。但是你真的需要拿出一些紧急措施来鼓舞市场人气了。道指跌到5000点对谁都没好处。对你来说更是如此。 Evan Newmark
Dear Mr. President, Unfortunately, it's true. The stock market doesn't like you. Only one month in and investors are giving up. Another 30% haircut would put the Dow at 5000. And that level wouldn't just put a crimp into your presidency. The ensuing collapse in savings and the U.S. pension system would destroy it. Now, some advisers may tell you not to worry about the stock market. That it will take care of itself. But that's wrong. Especially today. At its core, the market is a measure of belief - the belief that investors can make money by buying a slice of America. And a plummeting Dow means they really don't believe in the country. Or in you. You need to turn this around and fast. Here's some advice: 1. Channel Ronald Reagan, not Jimmy Carter Everybody knows the economy is lousy. Everybody gets your 'underpromise, overdeliver' routine. But if the economy doesn't come around in a year, you're still 'wearing it' as they say on Wall Street. You're the number one salesman of America's hopes and dreams. Quit moaning and go out and sell some optimism. 2. Enough already with class warfare Make no mistake. All that populist anti-Wall Street rhetoric in Washington scares the heck out of investors. What good comes from your Press Secretary attacking CNBC's Rick Santelli? It makes the White House look weak and out of touch with the markets. Maybe you are. How else could you have signed Senator Christopher Dodd's executive pay amendment into law? Forget that the amendment is poorly drafted, vindictive public policy. It serves nobody's interests but the politicians who sponsored it. Tell Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and your own staff to turn down the volume on the 'outrage of the people.' The election is long over. 3. Rule out bank nationalization - even if you haven't completely ruled it out. Tell your Treasury Secretary to immediately announce that the nationalization of Citi and Bank of America is off the table. With their shares worth so little and the government already backstopping them, this is largely a matter of semantics. If you have to revisit 'full nationalization' over the next couple of months, so what? Secretary Geithner can say the situation has changed. And it will have. The situation changes every day. 4. Make peace with Wall Street Go to New York, press the flesh and put some confidence into the markets simply by showing up. Meet with the same eight bank CEOs that were bashed two weeks ago by Rep. Barney Frank and his House Committee. Scold them for the cameras and then declare that a healthy America needs a healthy Wall Street. Announce on the NYSE floor that the SEC is reinstating the 'uptick rule' as a way to protect small 'Main Street' investors. Wall Street will give you a hero's welcome. 5. Shelve liberal, Democrat pet bills Why are your fellow Democrats so keen to frighten US industry? Are US companies not terrified enough nowadays? Show that you want American business to win. Put the kibosh on Henry Waxman's efforts to undo the Supreme Courts' limitations on suing medical device makers. And while you're at it, call for an indefinite postponement of the Employee Free Choice Act, the anti-business union card check bill. That one's a real stock market no-no. 6. Get the bipartisanship thing going It made investors nervous that Senator Judd Gregg ditched you and that you could only come up with 3 Republican votes on the stimulus. Let's get that bipartisan thing going. Join with the Republicans and put GM into bankruptcy. That's the endgame anyway. Might as well co-opt the Republicans and give yourself some political cover. Of course, none of these measures is a guarantee that the stock market will go up. And certainly, many in your party will cry Judas. But you urgently need to do something to shift investor sentiment. Dow 5000 is in nobody's interest. Especially not yours. Evan Newmark
Dear Mr. President, Unfortunately, it's true. The stock market doesn't like you. Only one month in and investors are giving up. Another 30% haircut would put the Dow at 5000. And that level wouldn't just put a crimp into your presidency. The ensuing collapse in savings and the U.S. pension system would destroy it. Now, some advisers may tell you not to worry about the stock market. That it will take care of itself. But that's wrong. Especially today. At its core, the market is a measure of belief - the belief that investors can make money by buying a slice of America. And a plummeting Dow means they really don't believe in the country. Or in you. You need to turn this around and fast. Here's some advice: 1. Channel Ronald Reagan, not Jimmy Carter Everybody knows the economy is lousy. Everybody gets your 'underpromise, overdeliver' routine. But if the economy doesn't come around in a year, you're still 'wearing it' as they say on Wall Street. You're the number one salesman of America's hopes and dreams. Quit moaning and go out and sell some optimism. 2. Enough already with class warfare Make no mistake. All that populist anti-Wall Street rhetoric in Washington scares the heck out of investors. What good comes from your Press Secretary attacking CNBC's Rick Santelli? It makes the White House look weak and out of touch with the markets. Maybe you are. How else could you have signed Senator Christopher Dodd's executive pay amendment into law? Forget that the amendment is poorly drafted, vindictive public policy. It serves nobody's interests but the politicians who sponsored it. Tell Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and your own staff to turn down the volume on the 'outrage of the people.' The election is long over. 3. Rule out bank nationalization - even if you haven't completely ruled it out. Tell your Treasury Secretary to immediately announce that the nationalization of Citi and Bank of America is off the table. With their shares worth so little and the government already backstopping them, this is largely a matter of semantics. If you have to revisit 'full nationalization' over the next couple of months, so what? Secretary Geithner can say the situation has changed. And it will have. The situation changes every day. 4. Make peace with Wall Street Go to New York, press the flesh and put some confidence into the markets simply by showing up. Meet with the same eight bank CEOs that were bashed two weeks ago by Rep. Barney Frank and his House Committee. Scold them for the cameras and then declare that a healthy America needs a healthy Wall Street. Announce on the NYSE floor that the SEC is reinstating the 'uptick rule' as a way to protect small 'Main Street' investors. Wall Street will give you a hero's welcome. 5. Shelve liberal, Democrat pet bills Why are your fellow Democrats so keen to frighten US industry? Are US companies not terrified enough nowadays? Show that you want American business to win. Put the kibosh on Henry Waxman's efforts to undo the Supreme Courts' limitations on suing medical device makers. And while you're at it, call for an indefinite postponement of the Employee Free Choice Act, the anti-business union card check bill. That one's a real stock market no-no. 6. Get the bipartisanship thing going It made investors nervous that Senator Judd Gregg ditched you and that you could only come up with 3 Republican votes on the stimulus. Let's get that bipartisan thing going. Join with the Republicans and put GM into bankruptcy. That's the endgame anyway. Might as well co-opt the Republicans and give yourself some political cover. Of course, none of these measures is a guarantee that the stock market will go up. And certainly, many in your party will cry Judas. But you urgently need to do something to shift investor sentiment. Dow 5000 is in nobody's interest. Especially not yours. Evan Newmark