Earnings Test Awaits Rally In Tech Stocks
在美国股市本轮回升中，领涨的是10年前的股市宠儿──科技股。领涨科技股的企业本周将面临考验──一系列知名科技企业将陆续公布收益，其中包括周一的国际商业机器公司(IBM)和德州仪器公司(Texas Instruments Inc.)，周二的雅虎(Yahoo)，周三的苹果公司(Apple)，周四的亚马逊(Amazon.com)和微软(Microsoft)。除微软外，上述公司的股票今年以来都至少涨了16%。同期，反映科技股行情的纳斯达克综合指数以6%的涨幅令其他股指黯然失色，击败了下跌7%的道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数。科技股大涨对股市大盘来说可能是个好兆头，因为这显示出投资者对高风险资产有了更大兴趣。据美银证券-美林(Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch)上周公布的一份调查显示，科技股是全球基金经理们最青睐的类股，有27%的经理表示将增持科技股。不过，基金经理们也在对冲持有科技股的风险。调查显示，第二大受青睐的类股是通常抗跌的医药类股。在基金经理们的“购物单”中垫底的仍是银行股，银行业是金融危机的罪魁祸首。美银证券-美林策略师哈特奈特(Michael Hartnett)表示，投资者想冒风险，不过也就想冒这么多的风险而已，科技企业已经把他们的这点儿风险需求占满了。科技企业通常资产负债状况良好，这意味着投资者不必因为担心有毒资产而彻夜难眠。调查显示，科技股与能源和材料类股的关系也不大，后两者去年都曾备受青睐，但却在全球衰退的重压下崩溃了，现在的价格仍被认为太高。显示人们在投资科技股的同时仍然心存谨慎的另一个迹象是，最大型科技股的表现超过了其他科技股。纳斯达克100指数今年以来上涨了约12%，领涨的是科技巨头谷歌(Google)和苹果公司，两者分别上涨了28%和45%。若不是微软跌了1%，该指数还会涨得更多。纳斯达克100指数追踪在纳斯达克上市的100家市值最大的公司。微软股票下跌的原因是1月份发布的收益不及预期，而该公司又拒绝透露对今年剩余时间的收益预测。上周，分析师下调了对微软第三财季（截至3月份）的预期；此前研究公司Gartner和IDC公布报告说，一季度全球个人电脑发货量较上年同期下降6.5%-7%。尽管有这样的报告，分析师却上调了对苹果公司季度收益的预期，原因主要是该公司的数据没有预期那么糟。与谷歌一样，苹果公司有着以令人震惊的良好收益击败预期的记录。谷歌上周完成了自己的使命，市场需要苹果也不负众望。在负债财富缩水和失业率不断上升的重压下，消费者很可能会在支出上出现新的犹豫趋势，科技股仍然有受到打击的危险。状况好与状况坏的企业可能差距越来越大，谷歌和苹果这样的公司会继续顺风顺水，而中小科技企业却会遭遇浩劫。Mark Gongloff相关阅读谷歌第一财季净利润增加8.9% 2009-04-17美股迎来收益季 涨势何去何从？ 2009-04-06 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月20日11:45', 'IBM'));International Business Machines Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：IBMdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月20日11:45', 'TXN'));德州仪器公司英文名称：Texas Instruments Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：TXNdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月20日11:45', 'AAPL'));苹果公司英文名称：Apple Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：AAPLdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月20日11:45', 'AMZN'));亚马逊公司英文名称：Amazon.com Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：AMZNdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月20日11:45', 'YHOO'));雅虎公司英文名称：Yahoo! Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：YHOOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月20日11:45', 'MSFT'));Microsoft Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT
This U.S. market rally has been led by the darlings of a decade ago: technology stocks.Their leadership will be tested this week, with a burst of big-name tech earnings, including International Business Machines and Texas Instruments on Monday, Yahoo on Tuesday, Apple on Wednesday, and Amazon.com and Microsoft on Thursday.Except for Microsoft, each of these stocks is up at least 16% on the year. During the same period, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has outpaced other market barometers, with its 6% rise trouncing the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down 7%. The tech rally could be a good omen for the broader market, suggesting investors are getting hungrier for riskier assets.According to a Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch survey released last week, technology is the most-loved sector among global fund managers, with 27% professing to be 'overweight' tech stocks -- jargon for backing up the truck for a heaping helping.Nevertheless, fund managers are hedging their tech bets. The survey showed that the second-favorite sector is pharmaceuticals, traditionally a defensive play. Still at the bottom of fund managers' shopping lists: banking, the rotten root of the financial crisis.Investors want risk, but only so much, suggests BAS-ML strategist Michael Hartnett, and tech companies have filled that niche. They typically have clean balance sheets, meaning investors don't have to lie awake nights worrying about toxic assets.Technology also has little connection to energy and materials, which were last year's darlings but collapsed under the weight of global recession and are still seen as expensive, according to the survey.In another sign of defensiveness, the biggest tech names have outshined the rest. The Nasdaq 100 index of its biggest stocks by market capitalization is up about 12% this year, tugged higher by goliaths Google and Apple, up 28% and 45%, respectively. The index would be even higher if not for Microsoft's 1% decline.Microsoft has suffered because its January earnings report missed expectations and it declined to offer guidance for the rest of the year. Last week, analysts cut estimates for its fiscal third quarter, ended in March, after reports from Gartner and IDC that global personal-computer shipments fell 6.5% to 7% in the first quarter from a year earlier.Analysts raised their forecasts for Apple's quarter despite the same reports, mainly because Apple's numbers weren't as horrible as expected. Like Google, Apple has a record of blowing earnings expectations out of the water with eye-poppingly good reports. Google held up its end last week, and the market needs Apple to deliver, too.Tech is still vulnerable to what will likely be a new trend of hesitant spending by consumers still burdened with debt, lost wealth and increasing unemployment.The gap between haves and have-nots could keep growing, keeping the Googles and Apples of the world afloat, but wreaking havoc in tech's lower ranks.Mark Gongloff
This U.S. market rally has been led by the darlings of a decade ago: technology stocks.Their leadership will be tested this week, with a burst of big-name tech earnings, including International Business Machines and Texas Instruments on Monday, Yahoo on Tuesday, Apple on Wednesday, and Amazon.com and Microsoft on Thursday.Except for Microsoft, each of these stocks is up at least 16% on the year. During the same period, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has outpaced other market barometers, with its 6% rise trouncing the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down 7%. The tech rally could be a good omen for the broader market, suggesting investors are getting hungrier for riskier assets.According to a Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch survey released last week, technology is the most-loved sector among global fund managers, with 27% professing to be 'overweight' tech stocks -- jargon for backing up the truck for a heaping helping.Nevertheless, fund managers are hedging their tech bets. The survey showed that the second-favorite sector is pharmaceuticals, traditionally a defensive play. Still at the bottom of fund managers' shopping lists: banking, the rotten root of the financial crisis.Investors want risk, but only so much, suggests BAS-ML strategist Michael Hartnett, and tech companies have filled that niche. They typically have clean balance sheets, meaning investors don't have to lie awake nights worrying about toxic assets.Technology also has little connection to energy and materials, which were last year's darlings but collapsed under the weight of global recession and are still seen as expensive, according to the survey.In another sign of defensiveness, the biggest tech names have outshined the rest. The Nasdaq 100 index of its biggest stocks by market capitalization is up about 12% this year, tugged higher by goliaths Google and Apple, up 28% and 45%, respectively. The index would be even higher if not for Microsoft's 1% decline.Microsoft has suffered because its January earnings report missed expectations and it declined to offer guidance for the rest of the year. Last week, analysts cut estimates for its fiscal third quarter, ended in March, after reports from Gartner and IDC that global personal-computer shipments fell 6.5% to 7% in the first quarter from a year earlier.Analysts raised their forecasts for Apple's quarter despite the same reports, mainly because Apple's numbers weren't as horrible as expected. Like Google, Apple has a record of blowing earnings expectations out of the water with eye-poppingly good reports. Google held up its end last week, and the market needs Apple to deliver, too.Tech is still vulnerable to what will likely be a new trend of hesitant spending by consumers still burdened with debt, lost wealth and increasing unemployment.The gap between haves and have-nots could keep growing, keeping the Googles and Apples of the world afloat, but wreaking havoc in tech's lower ranks.Mark Gongloff