Bond Markets, The Fed and A 3% Solution

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)的政策制定者周三将结束为期两天的会议。乍看下来，这次会议会平淡无奇：联邦基金目标利率自去年12月份之后已经接近于零，没有多少继续下调的空间了。预计他们也不会像3月18日那样宣布新的重大政策举措，当时他们提出了购买高达3,000亿美元国债的计划，以降低其它利率。但这一决定可能造成的局面是，让美联储看似温和的行动引发激烈的市场反应。总的来说，债券市场中的许多人都认为美联储希望将10年期美国国债的收益率保持在3%下方。美联储3月18日的决定进一步证实了这个想法，就在此前一天，10年期美国国债的收益率刚超过了3%。收益率一度跌至2.5%左右，但此后又开始攀升，再度达到了3%。但美联储从未宣布过3%的红线，美国国债收益率上升的原因之一在于对经济的希望正在增加。美联储可能并不准备为特定美国国债设定具体的收益率水平。美银证券-美林(Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch)经济学家马图斯(Drew Matus)在研究报告中称，美联储与市场在这点上的不同看法表明，如果突破这一水平，而美联储没有做出反应，那么利率可能出现剧烈波动。美联储周三的决定与财政部宣布借款需求的时间碰到了一起，后者也压低了美国国债的价格，带来了收益率的上升。这可能会给美联储采取行动带来更大的压力。美联储或许并不想做出反应，但市场却可能迫使它必须这样做。Mark Gongloff相关阅读经济前景恶化促使美联储回购1万亿美元资产 2009-04-09美国消费者能否补上国债窟窿？ 2009-03-23贝南克：可能有必要修改资本和会计准则 2009-03-21美联储收购债券对你意味着什么？ 2009-03-20温家宝：担心美国国债安全 2009-03-13 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:30', 'V'));VISA Inc. (Cl A)总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：Vdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:30', 'MA'));Mastercard Inc. (cl A)总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：MA


Federal Reserve policy makers end a two-day meeting Wednesday that at first glance seems a nonevent. There's little left to cut on their fed-funds-rate target, at near zero since last December.They aren't expected to announce major new policy steps, as they did on March 18, when they presented plans to buy as muich as $300 billion in Treasury bonds to keep other interest rates low. But that decision helped create a situation that could make even seemingly bland Fed actions spark violent market reactions.Mainly, many in bond markets have the idea that central bankers want to keep the 10-year Treasury note's yield under 3%. That belief gained traction with the Fed's March 18 announcement, which came one day after the 10-year note yield topped 3%. The yield plunged to about 2.5%, but has climbed ever since and, as luck would have it, is once again at 3%.But the Fed has never declared 3% magical, and Treasury yields are rising partly because economic hopes are rising. The Fed mightn't be ready to set a particular yield level for particular Treasury notes.'This disconnect between the Fed and the market on this point suggests that the potential exists for sharp rate movements if this level is breached without a reaction from the Fed,' Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch economist Drew Matus suggested in a note.Wednesday's Fed decision will coincide with a Treasury Department announcement about its borrowing needs, which also are pushing Treasury prices lower and yields -- which move in the opposite direction -- higher. That could put more pressure on the Fed to make a move.The Fed mightn't want to react, but the market may yet force its hand.Mark Gongloff