Road Not Taken Beckons Rio Tinto
如果当前力拓(Rio Tinto)董事会面临同2月份困难时期一样的改善资产负债状况的选择，有理由认为，它会采取不同的做法。它可能会倾向于配股，而不是与中国国有控股公司中铝公司(Chinalco)签署价值195亿美元的复杂协议。自当初作出决定以来，大宗商品价格大幅上扬，提高了矿山的估值，颠覆了当初达成交易的许多理由。尽管如此，可能也不足以说服力拓放弃交易。力拓的流动性头寸已大为改善。假设从今年4月份以来铁矿石价格一次性下调30%；铝价和铜价维持目前的水平；以及力拓完成此前宣布的100亿美元的配股。经纪公司Canaccord Adams称，力拓将有能力偿还2010年之前189亿美元的贷款，而且还有一些余地。债券市场已经解冻，这从力拓近期发行了35亿美元的债券可以看出，因此力拓会有一些灵活性。但是，力拓面临的问题并不仅是流动性，还有杠杆比率过高的问题。中铝交易的吸引力在于，其中包含资产出售的内容，这使力拓能够对债务进行再融资，从而降低此前居高不下的杠杆比率，而不必受到金属价格变幻莫测的影响。这仍然是一个重要的考量因素，特别是鉴于全球经济前景的不确定性。力拓不能承担拒绝中铝后才发现金属价格再度暴跌，公司需要以跳楼价出售资产的痛苦。这意味着，力拓可能需要有其它公司诚意竞购其部分资产，这样它才能心里有底，才可能会考虑放弃中铝公司。银行业人士说，并不缺乏对力拓资产的兴趣。但目前尚不清楚是否真正会有足够高的报价，让力拓有理由支付中铝公司1.95亿美元违约费，和冒险得罪其最大的客户：中国。中铝公司设立了很高的门槛，尤其是它为力拓在智力的Escondida铜矿所付的价格。可能会有具有吸引力的竞标出现。毕竟，力拓的竞争对手，尤其是长期追求力拓的必和必拓(BHP Billiton)出于战略利益需要也要阻止力拓与中国过于亲密。这些举措将令力拓的董事会左右为难。放弃中铝几乎肯定会造成力拓首席执行长艾博年(Tom Albanese)下台，公司董事会也会因180度的大转弯而感到尴尬。不过，它至少会避免这些交易受到自己的股东或澳大利亚政府否决的窘迫。Matthew Curtin相关阅读中国在大宗商品进口问题上面临两难 2009-04-27大宗商品开出“香蕉球” 2009-04-24肖亚庆跻身政界不利中铝联姻力拓 2009-04-16三大铁矿石巨头退出中国行业大会 2009-04-14力拓兴衰系于中国 2009-04-08 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日11:31', '601600.SH'));中国铝业股份有限公司（简称：中国铝业）英文名称：Aluminum Co. of China Ltd.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：601600document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日11:31', '2600.HK'));中国铝业股份有限公司英文名称：Aluminum Co. of China Ltd.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：2600document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日11:31', 'RTP'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RTPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日11:31', 'ACH'));中国铝业股份有限公司英文名称：Aluminum Co. of China Ltd. (ADS)总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：ACHdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日11:31', 'BBL'));Bhp Billiton Plc (ads)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BBLdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日11:31', 'BHP'));BHP Billiton Ltd. (ADS)总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BHPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日11:31', 'RIO.AU'));Rio Tinto Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日11:31', 'BHP.AU'));Bhp Billiton Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：BHPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日11:31', 'RIO.LN'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日11:31', 'BLT.LN'));BHP Billiton PLC总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：BLT
If the Rio Tinto board faced the same choice on fixing its balance sheet today as it did in the dark days of February, it is a fair bet it would take a different course. It would likely opt for a rights issue rather than its complex $19.5 billion deal with Chinalco, a Chinese state-controlled company.Since its original decision, commodity prices have soared, boosting mining valuations and undermining much of the rationale for the deal. Even so, that is unlikely to be enough on its own to persuade Rio to walk away.Rio's liquidity position has improved considerably. Assume a one-off cut to iron-ore prices of 30% from April this year; that aluminium and copper prices stay around today's levels; and Rio completes the $10 billion rights issue it previously considered.It would meet its $18.9 billion of loan repayments through 2010 with some room to spare, according to broker Canaccord Adams. With the bond markets open, as demonstrated by Rio's recent $3.5 billion issue, Rio should have some flexibility.But Rio's lingering problem isn't just liquidity but excessive leverage. The attraction of the Chinalco deal is that it includes asset sales, enabling Rio to refinance debts and reduce leverage upfront, without being exposed to the vagaries of metal prices. That is still an important consideration, particularly given the uncertainty over the global economic outlook. Rio can't afford to walk away from Chinalco only to find metal prices slump again and it needs to sell assets at fire-sale prices.That means Rio would likely want the comfort of firm bids for some assets before it would consider abandoning Chinalco. Bankers say there is no shortage of interest. But it isn't clear whether there are real offers at high enough prices to justify Rio paying Chinalco a $195 million breakup fee and risk offending its biggest customer: China.Chinalco has set the bar high, particularly with the price it is paying for a stake in Rio's Escondida copper mine in Chile.Attractive bids may yet materialize. After all, rival mining companies, among them Rio's erstwhile suitor BHP Billiton, have a strategic interest in preventing Rio getting too cozy with China.Such moves would put Rio's board in a bind. Walking away from Chinalco would almost certainly cost Rio boss Tom Albanese his job and would be an embarrassing U-turn for the board as a whole.Still, at least it would avoid the possible humiliation of having a deal turned down by either its own shareholders or the Australian government.Matthew Curtin
If the Rio Tinto board faced the same choice on fixing its balance sheet today as it did in the dark days of February, it is a fair bet it would take a different course. It would likely opt for a rights issue rather than its complex $19.5 billion deal with Chinalco, a Chinese state-controlled company.Since its original decision, commodity prices have soared, boosting mining valuations and undermining much of the rationale for the deal. Even so, that is unlikely to be enough on its own to persuade Rio to walk away.Rio's liquidity position has improved considerably. Assume a one-off cut to iron-ore prices of 30% from April this year; that aluminium and copper prices stay around today's levels; and Rio completes the $10 billion rights issue it previously considered.It would meet its $18.9 billion of loan repayments through 2010 with some room to spare, according to broker Canaccord Adams. With the bond markets open, as demonstrated by Rio's recent $3.5 billion issue, Rio should have some flexibility.But Rio's lingering problem isn't just liquidity but excessive leverage. The attraction of the Chinalco deal is that it includes asset sales, enabling Rio to refinance debts and reduce leverage upfront, without being exposed to the vagaries of metal prices. That is still an important consideration, particularly given the uncertainty over the global economic outlook. Rio can't afford to walk away from Chinalco only to find metal prices slump again and it needs to sell assets at fire-sale prices.That means Rio would likely want the comfort of firm bids for some assets before it would consider abandoning Chinalco. Bankers say there is no shortage of interest. But it isn't clear whether there are real offers at high enough prices to justify Rio paying Chinalco a $195 million breakup fee and risk offending its biggest customer: China.Chinalco has set the bar high, particularly with the price it is paying for a stake in Rio's Escondida copper mine in Chile.Attractive bids may yet materialize. After all, rival mining companies, among them Rio's erstwhile suitor BHP Billiton, have a strategic interest in preventing Rio getting too cozy with China.Such moves would put Rio's board in a bind. Walking away from Chinalco would almost certainly cost Rio boss Tom Albanese his job and would be an embarrassing U-turn for the board as a whole.Still, at least it would avoid the possible humiliation of having a deal turned down by either its own shareholders or the Australian government.Matthew Curtin