IMF Is Given Tough Tasks
今年4月初，当国际货币基金组织(IMF)的官员们听说，二十国集团峰会支持将该组织的资金规模增加3倍达到1万亿美元的时候，他们简直兴奋极了。IMF总裁卡恩(Dominique Strauss-Kahn)在一次媒体吹风会上说了6次“IMF回来了”。但在刚刚过去的这个周末召开的IMF春季年会上，该机构却必须面对一个现实。在获得注资的同时，IMF在应对本轮全球衰退防范衰退再次发生方面也被赋予了艰巨任务。要完成这项工作，IMF既需表现出政治灵活性，也要有对抗IMF实力强大成员国的意愿，而IMF过去是很少表现出这种意愿的。Getty ImagesIMF总裁卡恩美国智囊机构彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的副所长波森(Adam Posen)说，IMF的资源和受到的关注大为增加，但IMF监督其成员国的权威性却没有丝毫提升。新注入的资金中，大约5,000亿美元被指定用于IMF的主要工作──救助受困成员国。IMF已推出一项信贷安排，不再要求借款国进行削减开支减少补贴等痛苦的经济改革。IMF以往要求实施的这类改革曾使它在许多拉美和亚洲国家眼中成了政治毒药。墨西哥波兰哥伦比亚都已申请了这项信贷安排。这项新的信贷安排赢得了一些发展中国家的赞扬，但IMF仍将不得不给出苛刻的政治要求。只有那些获得IMF高度认可的国家才有资格获得信贷额度。IMF经常迫使借款方削减开支或提高利率，即使这样做会加剧经济低迷，不过，该组织已采取措施保护一些针对穷国的救助项目。这种区别对待在土耳其巴基斯坦东欧和其他一些IMF表现出偏向性的地区引发了不满，且可能导致人们向IMF施压，要求其放松标准。世界银行(World Bank)已尝试向那些原本可能被放弃的基础设施项目提供融资，以降低举债国削减预算的不利影响。IMF在上述信贷安排一年期满必须决定是否展期的时候，其承受的压力将会加大。如果它说“不”，将削弱一个国家的经济声誉；如果它说“是”，而这个国家的现行政策其实又不够格，则将削弱IMF的可信度。印度计划委员会副主席前IMF官员Montek Singh Ahluwalia说，获得了这些信贷额度的国家最好还是不要使用它们。这样，这些国家既可以宣称IMF的信贷额度给了他们额外资源，又不会变得太过依赖IMF的资金。IMF还将承担一项政治上充满难度的新任务：就那些可能引发另一场危机的问题发出早期预警。IMF经济学家将评估哪些经济指标预示着资产泡沫正在形成；并将评估世界某一领域的政治或经济决策可能会给其他领域带来怎样的问题。IMF现在正在对这套体系进行它所称的“演习”，并计划在10月份的IMF伊斯坦布尔年会之前将这一体系投入运行。一些国家担心，IMF将对可能发生的问题作出错误诊断，迫使这些国家在忽略警告和接受IMF建议的政策之间作出选择，而后一种选择有可能抑制经济增长。联合国前秘书长加利(Boutros-Ghali)曾说，如果你警告说狼来了，但狼并没有出现，这会让人们耗费很多钱财。IMF将如何让其成员国重视其警告呢？卡恩上周五在国际问题研究机构School of Advanced International Studies口气严厉地谈到了这个问题。他说，早期预警必须强有力坦率可信并且公平。但卡恩没有承诺会公开发出早期警告，而IMF的工作人员说他们也怀疑IMF将会这么做。相反，IMF的经济学家计划向成员国的财经官员传递预警消息，作为民间咨询的一部分，而这种做法过去曾导致IMF的建议被忽视。去年春天，美国财政部将IMF的一项有关重组银行业资本结构的计划束之高阁，没能给予太大重视。今年早些时候，IMF提出让陷入困境的东欧国家将本币贬值接受欧元的建议也被欧盟扔在了一边。在这两个案例中，IMF的建议提出很久后才被泄露给了媒体。这些建议如果能及时充分地公诸于众，本来有可能收到一定效果。要引起决策者和市场的重视，此类警告或许需要公开披露，特别是对那些不依赖IMF贷款的富有国家更是如此。巴西财政部长曼特加(Guido Mantega)说，考虑到眼下这波经济衰退的严重性，旧的行为模式或许正被打破。本轮经济衰退起于美国，蔓延到欧洲，随后又让发展中国家受到重创。他说，富有国家认识到，他们过去犯了许多错误，他们对IMF的建议将作出更积极的响应，即使建议是以非公开方式给出的。他说，即使是发达国家也将服从这些（国际性金融）机构的监督。比如，美国已表示它将要求IMF对美国金融体系作一个全面评估，之前多年美国一直规避这类评估。如果说这预示了一种新态度，那么，二十国集团对IMF的支持给全球经济体系带来的改变或许将超出它的预期。Bob Davis相关阅读IMF首次债券发行计划进入最后阶段 2009-04-25索罗斯：应让中国在IMF中扮演更积极的角色 2009-04-25IMF总裁：经济危机远未结束 2009-04-24IMF称欧美银行需要大幅募股增资 2009-04-22
International Monetary Fund officials were nearly giddy in early April when they learned that leaders at the G-20 summit backed a fourfold increase in fund resources to $1 trillion. During a press briefing, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn used the phrase 'the IMF is back' six times.But at the IMF's annual spring meeting this past weekend, reality set in. In exchange for the money, the IMF has been handed tough assignments in fighting the global recession and staving off another one. The work will require a political dexterity and willingness to stand up to powerful IMF members that the fund has rarely shown in the past.'There's been a huge expansion of IMF resources and huge attention to the IMF, but nothing has been done to make members fear IMF surveillance' or oversight, says Adam Posen, deputy director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank.About $500 billion of the new funds are earmarked for the IMF's main job of bailing out troubled countries. The IMF has introduced a credit line that doesn't require borrowers to make the kinds of painful economic changes -- cutting spending, slashing subsidies -- that have turned the IMF into political poison in much of Latin America and Asia. Mexico, Poland and Colombia have signed up for the credit line.The new facility has won plaudits from some developing countries, but the IMF will still have to make tough political calls. Only nations ranked highly by the IMF can qualify for credit line. The IMF often forces other borrowers to cut spending or raise interest rates even if that deepens a downturn, though the IMF has taken steps to protect some programs for the poor.The disparate treatment has prompted complaints in Turkey, Pakistan, Eastern Europe and elsewhere that the IMF is playing favorites, and it may lead to pressure on the fund to ease its standards. The World Bank has tried to reduce the effect of the budget cuts by financing infrastructure projects that otherwise might be jettisoned.Pressure on the IMF will ramp up when it must decide whether to renew the credit lines after their one-year terms. Saying 'no' would undermine a country's economic standing; saying 'yes,' if the country's policies don't warrant it, would undermine IMF credibility.'Countries that have these facilities would be well advised not to use them,' said Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India's planning commission and a former IMF official. That way countries can boast that IMF credit lines give them extra resources, but they wouldn't become too dependent on fund money.The IMF is also taking on a politically fraught new assignment: providing early warnings of problems that could explode into another crisis. IMF economists are examining which economic indicators signal asset bubbles are forming, and they are assessing how political or economic decisions in one part of the world could produce problems elsewhere.The fund is now conducting what it calls a 'dry run' of the system, which it plans to have working by the IMF's annual meeting in Istanbul in October.Some nations worry that the IMF will mistakenly diagnose potential problems, forcing countries to choose between ignoring the warning or adopting policies the IMF suggests, which could choke off economic growth. 'If you cry wolf once and the wolf doesn't show up, it will cost people a lot of money,' Mr. Boutros-Ghali said.How will the IMF get its members to take its warnings seriously? Friday at the School of Advanced International Studies, Mr. Strauss-Kahn talked tough. 'Early warnings must be strong, candid, credible and even-handed,' he said. But Mr. Strauss-Kahn didn't commit to making the early-warning exercises public, and staffers say they doubt the IMF will. Instead, the IMF economists plan to deliver the news to financial officials as part of private consultations -- the same formula that has led to IMF recommendations being ignored in the past.Last spring, the U.S. Treasury shelved an IMF plan to recapitalize banks without paying it much attention. Earlier this year, the European Union blew off an IMF proposal to have struggling Eastern European countries devalue their currencies and adopt the euro. In both cases news of the IMF proposals leaked to the media well after they could have made a difference if they had been well publicized. It may take public disclosure of the warnings to get the attention of policy makers and markets, especially in wealthy nations that don't rely on the IMF for loans.Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega says the old patterns may be breaking down because of the severity of the current global downturn, which started in the U.S., spread to Europe and then tanked developing countries. The rich countries realize they made many errors, he says, and will be more amenable to IMF advice even if it's made privately. 'Even advanced countries will submit to oversight from these [international financial] institutions,' he said.The U.S., for instance, has said it would ask the IMF to do a broad review of the U.S. financial system -- after years of avoiding such a review. If that's a precursor of a new attitude, the G-20 embrace of the IMF will have changed the global economic system perhaps even more than it expected to do.Bob Davis
International Monetary Fund officials were nearly giddy in early April when they learned that leaders at the G-20 summit backed a fourfold increase in fund resources to $1 trillion. During a press briefing, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn used the phrase 'the IMF is back' six times.But at the IMF's annual spring meeting this past weekend, reality set in. In exchange for the money, the IMF has been handed tough assignments in fighting the global recession and staving off another one. The work will require a political dexterity and willingness to stand up to powerful IMF members that the fund has rarely shown in the past.'There's been a huge expansion of IMF resources and huge attention to the IMF, but nothing has been done to make members fear IMF surveillance' or oversight, says Adam Posen, deputy director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank.About $500 billion of the new funds are earmarked for the IMF's main job of bailing out troubled countries. The IMF has introduced a credit line that doesn't require borrowers to make the kinds of painful economic changes -- cutting spending, slashing subsidies -- that have turned the IMF into political poison in much of Latin America and Asia. Mexico, Poland and Colombia have signed up for the credit line.The new facility has won plaudits from some developing countries, but the IMF will still have to make tough political calls. Only nations ranked highly by the IMF can qualify for credit line. The IMF often forces other borrowers to cut spending or raise interest rates even if that deepens a downturn, though the IMF has taken steps to protect some programs for the poor.The disparate treatment has prompted complaints in Turkey, Pakistan, Eastern Europe and elsewhere that the IMF is playing favorites, and it may lead to pressure on the fund to ease its standards. The World Bank has tried to reduce the effect of the budget cuts by financing infrastructure projects that otherwise might be jettisoned.Pressure on the IMF will ramp up when it must decide whether to renew the credit lines after their one-year terms. Saying 'no' would undermine a country's economic standing; saying 'yes,' if the country's policies don't warrant it, would undermine IMF credibility.'Countries that have these facilities would be well advised not to use them,' said Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India's planning commission and a former IMF official. That way countries can boast that IMF credit lines give them extra resources, but they wouldn't become too dependent on fund money.The IMF is also taking on a politically fraught new assignment: providing early warnings of problems that could explode into another crisis. IMF economists are examining which economic indicators signal asset bubbles are forming, and they are assessing how political or economic decisions in one part of the world could produce problems elsewhere.The fund is now conducting what it calls a 'dry run' of the system, which it plans to have working by the IMF's annual meeting in Istanbul in October.Some nations worry that the IMF will mistakenly diagnose potential problems, forcing countries to choose between ignoring the warning or adopting policies the IMF suggests, which could choke off economic growth. 'If you cry wolf once and the wolf doesn't show up, it will cost people a lot of money,' Mr. Boutros-Ghali said.How will the IMF get its members to take its warnings seriously? Friday at the School of Advanced International Studies, Mr. Strauss-Kahn talked tough. 'Early warnings must be strong, candid, credible and even-handed,' he said. But Mr. Strauss-Kahn didn't commit to making the early-warning exercises public, and staffers say they doubt the IMF will. Instead, the IMF economists plan to deliver the news to financial officials as part of private consultations -- the same formula that has led to IMF recommendations being ignored in the past.Last spring, the U.S. Treasury shelved an IMF plan to recapitalize banks without paying it much attention. Earlier this year, the European Union blew off an IMF proposal to have struggling Eastern European countries devalue their currencies and adopt the euro. In both cases news of the IMF proposals leaked to the media well after they could have made a difference if they had been well publicized. It may take public disclosure of the warnings to get the attention of policy makers and markets, especially in wealthy nations that don't rely on the IMF for loans.Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega says the old patterns may be breaking down because of the severity of the current global downturn, which started in the U.S., spread to Europe and then tanked developing countries. The rich countries realize they made many errors, he says, and will be more amenable to IMF advice even if it's made privately. 'Even advanced countries will submit to oversight from these [international financial] institutions,' he said.The U.S., for instance, has said it would ask the IMF to do a broad review of the U.S. financial system -- after years of avoiding such a review. If that's a precursor of a new attitude, the G-20 embrace of the IMF will have changed the global economic system perhaps even more than it expected to do.Bob Davis