The Susan Boyle Stock Market

生活中，所有的事情都只是期望值高低的问题。如果你对此表示怀疑，我劝你还是看看YouTube上苏珊•波伊尔(Susan Boyle)颇有启发性的视频。这位苏格兰演唱奇才吸引了数百万互联网用户。周末晚上，我太太强迫我和孩子们看了她的演唱视频。我所看到的正是当极低的期望值遭遇一个出人意料的天才和远大梦想时所发生的一样。以波伊尔的情况为例，这种碰撞带来的是泪水振奋和抓人的集体性精神宣泄。这也是看待最近华尔街股市大幅上扬的一个好方法。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数较3月份的低点上涨了26%。纳斯达克更是飙升了31%。周一，看起来我们好像又要有一轮迟到的上涨，这种一浪高过一浪的上涨是近几周来股市交易的特点。为什么我们会有这样强劲的春季上涨？Andrew Milligan/Associated Press 苏姗·波伊尔没人能说出确切的原因。不过想想期望是如何改变我们的行为的吧。想想波伊尔首次登上舞台时观众的反应吧。观众们认为这个47岁的电视选秀节目选手是在恶作剧。她衣着寒酸动作笨拙头发一团糟。是在开玩笑，对吧？她很快就证明不是这样。这就和股市一样。3月初，投资者对经济和企业收益的预期都低得可怜。市场人气非常低迷，明智的投资者纷纷离场观望，或是忙着投资黄金。所以，很容易就可以向投资者表明，或许还有希望。只是说说一些银行一季度收益不错，就足以使投资者空头回补，推动金融类股3月初大幅上涨。到3月中旬前，联邦快递集团(FedEx Co.)暗示出经济正在触底的希望。到4月初前，一系列超出预期的季度收益报告陆续出炉，首当其冲的是Research In Motion。这种趋势仍在继续。绝大多数大企业的收益都好于预期，像富国银行(Wells Fargo)和高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)这样的公司可以说是远高于预期。看起来空头回补带来的上涨如今可能正开始被真正的投资者买进取而代之。如今我们已经彻底摆脱3月份的噩梦了吗？谁晓得呢？和预测波伊尔的演唱事业结果相比，我们对此轮上涨是否会持续到夏季的预测也强不到哪去。但我们确实知道的是波伊尔现在将一举成名。好莱坞和唱片公司都迫切希望帮她书写童话般的成名之路。在华尔街，看涨的投资者也在迫切希望自己的故事能继续下去。不过他们应该谨记波伊尔成功的真正秘诀：较低的期望值。Evan Newmark（编者按：本文作者Evan Newmark曾在华尔街工作了20余年，目前已远离各大投行自己在进行股票投资。本栏目文章选自他在Deal Journl上的博客Mean Street。栏目内容都与华尔街有关。）相关阅读美国股市依然在顽强上涨 2009-04-20科技股涨势将接受收益报告考验 2009-04-20美国股市是真反弹还是假动作？ 2009-04-17


In life, it's all a matter of expectations.If you doubt that, I urge you to check out the inspirational YouTube video of Susan Boyle, the Scottish singing phenomenon that's attracting millions of Internet viewers.Last night, my wife made me and the kids watch it.And what I saw is what happens when extremely low expectations meet an unexpected talent and ambitious dreams. In the case of Susan Boyle, it brought tears, elation and a gripping collective catharsis.That's a good way of thinking about the current rally on Wall Street. The Dow is up 26% from the March lows. Nasdaq is up a whopping 31%. And today, it looks like we're having another one of those come-from-behind rallies that have typified trading in the last few weeks.Why are we getting such a strong spring rally?Nobody can say for sure. But think about how expectations change our behavior. Think about the audience's reaction when Susan Boyle first stepped out onto the stage. The audience thought the 47-year-old was a put-on. She was frumpy and awkward. Her hair was a mess. A joke, right?She quickly proved otherwise.Just like the stock market. In early March, investor expectations for both the economy and company earnings were pitifully low. Sentiment was so dire that the 'smart money' was on the sidelines or busy piling into gold. So it didn't take much to show investors that perhaps all was not lost.Talk that some of the banks were having a decent first quarter was enough to get a short-covering rally in the financials going in early March. By mid-March, FedEx indicated hope that the economy was bottoming. And by early April, a trend of quarterly earnings beating expectations was kicked off by Research In Motion.That trend has continued. The vast majority of big companies have beat earning estimates — and some like Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs have crushed them.It appears that a short-covering rally may now be overtaken by real investor buying. Are we now free and clear of the horrors of March?Who knows? We can no better predict that this rally will continue into the summer than we can predict what will come of Susan Boyle's singing career.We do know however that Susan Boyle will now get a shot at stardom. Hollywood and the recording companies are eager to help her write her fairy-tale.On Wall Street, bullish investors are also eager to keep their tale going. But they should keep in mind the real secret of Susan Boyle's success: low expectations.Evan Newmark