The Battle Around Dow 8000

股市从表面看来正在走好，但也仅此而已了。看来战线仍在道琼斯指数8000点附近。自从3月初的低点反弹以来，我们已经两次突破了8000点，最早在周三股市就有望第三次突破这个点位了。但8000点之上的下一步动向却是至为关键的，尤其是对于技术派分析师而言。技术派人士希望的是，即使出现回调，道指也能首先突破8083点。这样就将是连续第三次创出更高点。不断地创出新高，技术派人士就将开始认为市场下方的支撑水平在不断抬高，3月份的低点也就是安全的底部了。不过，如果道琼斯指数下一个高于8000点的收盘点位低于8083点，那么在技术派人士看来，这就是未来走势不容乐观的头肩顶形态了。这种形态是由高点更高点和不高于第二个高点的另一个高点组成。（我知道，说了太多的“高点”。）这种形态因在图表上看着酷似头和肩部而得名。技术分析师有时像是神秘的占卜师，不过有相当多的人分析图标，所以值得关注一下。鉴于道琼斯指数以外的其它市场的表现，创出较低的近期高点的可能性正在增加。受英特尔(Intel)和微软(Microsoft)走低的拖累，纳斯达克指数出现了下跌。科技股走软不是一个好兆头。同样至关重要的金融类股表现各异。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)走高，花旗(Citigroup)和美国银行(Bank of America)下跌。看来8000点，更具体的说是8083点是未来几天应该关注的主要点位。Dave Kansas（“市场脉动”深入华尔街内部，寻找影响市场的新闻，分析引起关注的走势和数据，由David Gaffen主笔。）相关阅读切莫太过看重美股反弹之势 2009-04-15美股反攻之路还能走多远？ 2009-04-13 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月16日13:48', 'BAC'));美国银行英文名称：Bank of America Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BACdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月16日13:48', 'JPM'));摩根大通公司英文名称：JPMorgan Chase & Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：JPMdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月16日13:48', 'GS'));高盛集团英文名称：Goldman Sachs Group Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：GSdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月16日13:48', 'INTC'));英特尔英文名称：Intel Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：INTCdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月16日13:48', 'MSFT'));Microsoft Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT


The stock market is moving toward a nice headline, but little else. It seems that the battle lines remain right around Dow 8000. We've made two trips above 8000 since bouncing from the early March lows, and it looks like trip number three could come as early as today.But the decisiveness of the next move above 8000 will be key, especially to chartists, or technical analysts. Chartists will be happy if the Dow climbs above 8083 before perhaps trending lower once again. That would be the third successive 'higher' high. Keep punching higher, and the chart watchers will start to think that new levels of support are building beneath the market and the March lows are safely in the past.If the Dow's next close above 8000 falls shy of 8083, however, the chartists might espy a 'head and shoulders' pattern which can foretell difficulty ahead. Such a pattern is formed by a high, a higher high and then a high not so high as the second high. (Lots of highs, I know.) This formation on a chart looks like a head and shoulders, thus the name. Chartists, or technical analysts, are sometimes an oracular lot. But enough people read those charts that it bears some watching.Prospects for a 'lower' near-term high are ripe, given how the market away from the Dow is performing. The Nasdaq is down, dragged lower by Intel and Microsoft. Weak tech is not a good sign. Financial stocks, still very key, are a mixed lot. J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs are higher, Citigroup and Bank of America are lower.It looks like 8000, and more specifically 8083, are key levels to watch in the coming days.Dave Kansas