《范式转变》- 内容摘要

A classic one of those is an unsustainable rate of debt growth that supports the buying of investment assets; it drives asset prices up, which leads people to believe that borrowing and buying those investment assets is a good thing to do.

其中一个典型的是不可持续的债务增长率，支持购买投资资产;它推动资产价格上涨，这使人们相信借贷和购买这些投资资产是一件好事。

Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops.
确定你所处的范式，检查它是否以及如何不可持续，并想象当不可持续的范围停止时，范式转变将如何发生。

I have found that the consensus view is typically more heavily influenced by what has happened relatively recently (i.e., over the past few years) than it is by what is most likely.It tends to assume that the paradigms that have existed will persist and it fails to anticipate the paradigm shifts, which is why we have such big market and economic shifts.These shifts, more often than not, lead to markets and economies behaving more opposite than similar to how they behaved in the prior paradigm.

我发现，共识观点通常更多地受到相对近期(即过去几年)发生的事情的影响，而不是最有可能发生的事情。 它倾向于假设已经存在的范式将会持续下去，它没有预见到范式的转变，这就是为什么我们有如此大的市场和经济的转变。 这些转变往往导致市场和经济的行为与之前的模式相反，而不是相似。

with debt-financed purchases of stocks and other assets at high prices
债务融资高价购买股票和其它资产

This debt crisis and plunge in economic activity led to economic depression, which led to aggressive easing by the Fed that consisted of breaking the link to gold, interest rates hitting 0%, the printing of a lot of money, and the devaluing of the dollar, which was accompanied by rises in gold prices, stock prices, and commodity prices from 1932 to 1937.

这场债务危机和经济活动的暴跌导致了经济萧条，这导致了美联储积极的宽松政策，包括切断与黄金的联系，利率达到0% ，大量印刷货币，以及伴随着1932年至1937年黄金价格、股票价格和大宗商品价格上涨的美元贬值。

人民币对美元的汇率

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That form of easing is approaching its limits because interest rates can’t be lowered much more and quantitative easing is having diminishing effects on the economy and the markets as the money that is being pumped in is increasingly being stuck in the hands of investors who buy other investments with it

这种形式的宽松正在接近其极限，因为利率不能再大幅下调，而量化宽松对经济和市场的影响正在减弱，因为注入的资金越来越多地被用它购买其他投资的投资者所持有

中国央行贷款基准利率（1988~2019）

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As these forms of easing (i.e., interest rate cuts and QE) cease to work well and the problem of there being too much debt and non-debt liabilities (e.g., pension and healthcare liabilities) remains, the other forms of easing (most obviously, currency depreciations and fiscal deficits that are monetized) will become increasingly likely.

随着这些形式的宽松(例如，降息和量化宽松)不再有效，而且债务和非债务负债(例如，养老金和医疗保健负债)过多的问题依然存在，其他形式的宽松(最明显的是货币贬值和货币化的财政赤字)将变得越来越可能。

asking yourself who the central bank needs to help most, and figuring out what they are most likely to do given the tools they have at their disposal, you can get at the most likely monetary policy shifts, which are the main drivers of paradigm shifts.

通过观察谁拥有什么样的资产和负债，问问自己谁是央行最需要帮助的人，并弄清楚他们在可支配的工具下最有可能做什么，你可以得到最有可能的货币政策转变，这是范式转变的主要驱动力。

I think these are unlikely to be good real returning investments and that those that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant.

我认为这些不太可能是真正的实际回报投资，那些最有可能做得最好的将是那些在货币价值贬值且国内和国际冲突显着时表现良好的投资。