2月万事达财新BBD中国新经济指数
一、指数概览
2019年2月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得27.4，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为27.4%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月下降1.4个百分点（图1）。本月NEI的下降主要来自资本投入的下降。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产；其次，可持续的较快增长；第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2019年2月NEI的下降主要来自资本投入的下降。资本投入指数近一年来波动较大，本月指数录得26.1，环比下降5.3。科技投入指数从2018年7月开始波动回升，本月指数录得30.4，环比上升2.4。劳动力投入指数近半年来波动下降，本月指数录得26.7，环比下降0.4（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化百分比分别为-0.1，-1.9，和0.6个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2019年2月NEI变化的贡献值为-1.4%（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2019年2月为总指数贡献了10个百分点；本月排名上升最多的是节能与环保业，从上月的第四名上升到本月的第二名，为总指数贡献了4.7个百分点；本月排名下降最多的是高端装备制造业，从上月的第三名下降到本月的第六名，为总指数贡献了1.8个百分点（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2019年2月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平为每月10627元，较上月上升86元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2019年2月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例较上月下降1.3%，为26.4%，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重下降1.1%，这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平小幅上升。2019年2月新经济入职工资“溢价”为2.8%，高于上月的2.6%（图6）。本月新经济行业平均工资溢价止跌反弹。
四、从劳动力数据看经济走势
本月新经济指数继续下降，达到指数发布以来的最低值。但与此同时，多方面数据呈现出经济复苏的迹象。新经济指数的下降和经济复苏同时出现，主要是由于存量企业的复苏速度超过了新经济企业。但我们能确定的是，无论是新经济企业还是传统经济企业，在这个月的复苏都较为显著。
图7是中国所有规模以上制造业企业从2017年5月到2019年2月的招聘情况。制造业企业普工招聘数量自2018年5月开始下降，但在12月开始触底回升。从同比变化来看，制造业企业的招聘数量在2018年7月和8月达到了同比增长最快的时期，随后9月出现断崖式下跌，直至12月触底，同比下降55%，但2019年2月，同比下降幅度已经收窄至13%，按照这个增速，预计下个月就可以回到同比为正的阶段。
图8列出了不同行业制造业企业招聘的变化情况（基期为2018年1月）。这14类企业的招聘总量占全部制造业企业的95%以上，极具代表性。可以看到，不同行业的增长趋势差异较大。2019年2月，农副食品加工业、食品、纺织业、电气机械和器材、仪器仪表等行业已经出现了明显的同比回升，达到了2018年1月招聘总量的150%以上。而同期，家具业、橡胶和塑料业的招聘总量仍然低于2018年1月的50%。总体来看，这些行业大都在2018年12月或者2019年1月触底，预计下月将会继续回升。
我们持续观察三大类服务业的需求情况——餐饮、电商、外卖，发现其变动趋势与制造业相似，自2018年7月逐渐下降，在12月触底反弹后，已持续2个月上涨，同比降幅也相应收窄（图9）。其中，餐饮业传菜员的降幅在2018年9月之后一直维持在同比下降40%左右，本月降幅已经收窄至20%。
综上所述，无论是从制造业还是服务业的总需求看，供给侧数据均反映出经济的复苏，2019年1季度的走势可能会好于预期。
五、城市新经济排名
2019年2月新经济总量城市排名前20名如图10所示，北京、上海、深圳、广州和杭州排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2018年8月到2019年2月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、杭州、南京、苏州和上海。
更多咨询敬请联络:
万事达卡
大中华区公共关系副总裁 吴焕宇
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财新智库
财新智库高级经济学家 王喆
电话：+86-10-85905019
公关总监 马玲
电话：+86-10-8590-5204
BBD（数联铭品）
BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
电话：+86-28-65290823
版权声明
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
Overview
In February 2019, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 27.4, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 27.4% of overall economic input activities that month, down 1.4 ppts from January (Chart 1). The declining NEI was due to the decrease of capital input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light, 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index, respectively. The decline in the February NEI reading came from the decrease of capital input (Chart 2). Capital input fluctuated widely in the recent year, dropping to 26.1 this month, with 5.3 MoM decrease. Technology input index was on an uptrend since July 2018, coming in at 30.4 this month, with 2.4 MoM increase. Labor input index showed a stable trend in recent half year, decreasing slightly to 26.7 this month, with 0.4 MoM decrease.
Taking the weights into account, percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.1, -1.9, and 0.6 ppts, respectively. The net NEI change was -1.4 ppts in total (Chart 3).
As for sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 10.0 ppts to NEI. Energy Conservation & Environment Protection was the industry with fastest growth in February, contributing 4.7 ppts and ranking the second. Advanced Materials came sixth from third, the biggest drop in ranking, contributing 1.8 ppts in February(Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In February 2019, the average monthly entry-level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,627, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 10,541 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job openings.
Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 26.4% of the total in February, with 1.3% MoM decrease. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy decreased by 1.1%. Accordingly, the average entry salary level of New Economy increased slightly compared to the whole economy. The entry-level salary premium of the New Economy rebounded to 2.8% as compared to economy-wide counterparts (Chart 6).
Economic Trends Based on Employment Data
In February, the NEI continued to decline, hitting the lowest ever since the index was published. However, multiple data showed the sign of economic recovery at the same time. The recovery of economy with declining NEI was mainly due to the fact that the existed enterprises recovered much more quickly than the new-economy ones. As we know, both the old and new economy enterprises are on the pace of recovery.
We focused on the employment of all manufacturing enterprises above designated size in China from May 2017 to February 2019 (Chart 7). The employment of general workers declined since May 2018 and rebounded in December 2018. The year-on-year growth rate of employment dropped sharply since September and hit its lowest point (-55%) in December after reaching the peak in July and August 2018. But in February 2019, the year-on-year decline narrowed to 13%. On current trends, it is projected that the grow rate will return to positive next month.
Chart 8 showed the change in employment of manufacturing enterprises among different industries compared to January 2018. These 14 representative industries accounted for more than 95% of employment market. It can be seen that the growth trend varied wildly across industries. In February 2019, Agricultural & Sideline Food Processing, Food Manufacturing, Textile, Electrical Machinery & Equipment, Instrument & Meter and other industries showed an up-trend growth, with over 150% increase. In the meanwhile, the employments of Furniture and Rubber & Plastic Product declined by more than 50%. Overall, the employment of most industries rebounded in December 2018 or January 2019, and are expected to continue rising next month.
We kept tracking the change in employment of catering, e-commerce, and food take-outs industry, which showed the similar pattern. After continuously declining since July 2018, the employment rebounded in December and continued to rise for 2 months, with small YoY decrease (Chart 9). Meanwhile, the employment of waiters remained a sharp year-on-year decrease at around 40% since September 2018, but fell by only 20% in February 2019.
Growing demands for labor in manufacturing and catering industry reflect the recovery of economy, indicating to higher expectations of the first quarter of 2019.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past six months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between August 2018 and February 2019. The top five cities were Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou and Shanghai.
For further information please contact:
Mastercard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications
Tel：+86-10-8519-9304
Email：[email protected]
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
Tel：+86-10-85905019
Emails：[email protected]
Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8590-5204
Email：[email protected]
BBD
Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel：+86-28-65290823
Emails：[email protected]
The Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visitwww.caixin.com.
About Mastercard
Mastercard (NYSE: MA),www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. Mastercard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MastercardAP and @MastercardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visithttp://www.bbdservice.com/.