引子
也许印度应该从中国-东盟经济合作的发展历史中学习到：开放的区域合作是激发南亚区域一体化活力的关键。现在是时候放弃一切将“一带一路”倡议与地缘政治联系起来的陈词滥调了。若如此，印度一定会看到一个不一样的世界。
林民旺：地缘政治偏见阻碍印度从“一带一路”倡议中获益（英文版）
天地人和 经世致用
Harmony Knowledge Solutions
林民旺
盘古智库学术委员、印度研究中心主任
复旦大学国际问题研究院青年研究员
At this year's World Economic Forum inDavos, Chinese PresidentXi Jinpingannounced that the Belt and Road summit will be held in May in Beijing. The summit, the first of its kind, has since attracted wide attention from the international community.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi revealed at a press conference of the recently concluded fifth session of the 12th National People's Congress that more than 20 heads of state and government will attend the summit, together with more than 50 leaders from international organizations, over 100 ministerial officials and more than 1,200 guests from around the world.
The gathering is supported by most of China's peripheral countries, notably Russia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Pakistan. But for India, it may be an embarrassing occasion. Last month, Indian Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar hosted the first India-China strategic dialogue in Beijing, the first since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office. When asked whether India will attend the international conference, Jaishankar said his government was still studying the issue.
It seems that New Delhi has been contemplating the One Belt and One Road for quite some time. On the one hand, India hopes to deepen economic cooperation with China to promote its "Made in India" campaign, while on the other, it is concerned about China's expanding influence over South Asia. Considering the Belt and Road initiative from a geopolitical perspective inevitably complicates the issue.
At the first Raisina Dialogue in 2016, Jaishankar talked about India's view of regional connectivity. According to him, different strategic interests and initiatives on connectivity are emerging across the Asia-Pacific region, which probably referred to Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, China's Belt and Road initiative, Japan's plan in aid for Asian infrastructure projects and the US' NewSilk Roadinitiative.
More importantly, he claimed that "in the absence of an agreed security architecture and the continuation of significant territorial disputes, the Asian landscape has been more than a little uncertain … More dangers than convenience are perceived from connectivity," which would lead to unnecessary competition in Asia.
It seems that the mainstream opinion throughout India is that the connectivity brought about by the Belt and Road initiative is geopolitically significant. Therefore, India cannot allow the initiative to expand further into South Asia. This could also explain why the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor has seen no progress since its proposal by Chinese PremierLi Keqiangin 2013, and also why New Delhi has been keen on Japan's investment in the Iranian port of Chabahar.
India sees the Belt and Road initiative as a geopolitical competition. The official reason the Indian government rejected the offer to join the initiative is that it is designed to pass Kashmir, a disputed area between India and Pakistan. However, it is just an unfounded excuse as Beijing has been maintaining a consistent position on the Kashmir issue, which has never changed.
New Delhi may also feel embarrassed as Moscow has actively responded to the Belt and Road initiative and will build an economic corridor with China and Mongolia. Since the beginning of this year, there have been reports on Russia and Iran seeking to join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which will likely put India in a more awkward position.
Meanwhile, other smaller states in South Asia have shown interest toward the Belt and Road initiative. India is definitely reluctant to see itself being left out of all these economic cooperation projects between China and other South Asian nations. Whether to continue to boycott or join the Belt and Road remains a conundrum for New Delhi.
At present, India is the only one who can help itself. It should give up its biased view on the Belt and Road initiative.
Beijing has expressed, on various occasions, its anticipation to see New Delhi join the grand project and to make concerted effort with India in building economic corridors involving China, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.
Perhaps what India should learn from the development history of China-ASEANeconomic cooperation is that open regional cooperation is key to stimulating the vitality of South Asian regional integrity.It is high time to abandon the cliché mentality of associating everything with geopolitics. India will surely see a different world if it does.■
From Global Times, the original title is "Geopolitical bias hinders India in benefitting from Belt & Road initiative".
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林民旺
盘古智库学术委员、印度研究中心主任，复旦大学国际问题研究院研究员、南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心研究员。
主要研究领域为国际关系理论、国际安全与国际战略、中国外交与南亚问题等。曾在《世界经济与政治》《外交评论》《美国研究》《国际政治科学》《国际问题研究》《国际论坛》等期刊发表论文多篇。译有《战略经济学》《重获企业精神》《中国大战略与国际安全》《第二世界》等。
