电商新战场 逐鹿竞天竺（上）
外文翻译《The great race》上篇
The great race
电商新战场 逐鹿竞天竺
本文导读：印度将是下一个崛起的互联网市场，其互联网电商行业会成为美国和中国之后全球第三大。对于曾经错失中国市场的亚马逊，现在正加大其印度的布局，不再重复之前的失误。而印度有着非常优质的互联网人口结构，年轻人占比远超美国和中国。随着过去几年移动终端的迅速渗透，这将是下一个巨大的互联网市场。本文非常详细的分析了印度电商市场的现状和未来
Mumbai
In the next 15 years, India will see more people come onlinethan any other country. E-commerce firms are in a frenzied battle for theircustom
孟买
未来十五年内，印度电商将飞速发展，一场疯狂的客户争夺战即将拉开帷幕。
It is a quiet morning on the outskirts of Mumbai, the air stillmild. Dusty streets are dappled with sunlight, a stray dog rummages throughsome rubbish, the shutters are lifted on a few tiny shops. A man pushes a cartbearing a pyramid of oranges. And a delivery boy named Anil is already racingalong his route on a motor bike borrowed from his uncle, his delivery backpackas large as he is. He has been up for hours, planning his route and carefullyfilling his bag with the packages to be dropped off first stacked near the top.
孟买郊区的早晨宁静而安详。布满尘土的街道被清晨的阳光点饰得斑斑驳驳，街边的流浪狗扒拉起了垃圾堆，而一些小店的百叶窗也早早随晨光卷起。一个商贩推着高高堆满橘子的货运车缓缓走过。而此时一位名叫艾尼尔的送货小弟已经急火火地跨上了从他叔叔那儿借来的小摩托，挎着比他身体还大得包裹，开始了一天的工作。他几个小时前就已经醒了，规划完送货路线，又小心翼翼地按照送货顺序从下往上一点点摞好了他巨大的包裹。
Anil enters a block of flats, squeezes his backpack into anarrow lift and delivers a shirt to a 21-year-old taxi driver. In aneighbouring tower he hands a smartphone case to a 16-year-old who uses severalapps to do the shopping for his family. A short ride away, a 78-year-oldgrandmother is a particularly pleased customer—with help from her grandson, shehas bought some clay pickling jars that she couldn’t findelsewhere and some high-quality saris at a knock-down price. For Anil, it isgruelling work. But he is betting that e-commerce in India has nowhere to gobut up, and he wants to ride up with it.
艾尼尔驶入了一片住宅区，费力地带着背包挤进了狭窄的电梯，把一件t恤快递给了一位21岁的计程车司机。紧接着他又上到相邻的塔楼，把智能手机壳送到一个16岁的男孩手中——全家的购物都离不开男孩的手机里的一堆网购APP。而不远处，还有一位78岁高龄的老太太万分期待地等着接收快件——她得小孙子帮她在购物网上订购了别处买不到的陶土腌菜罐和超低折扣的美丽纱丽。快递员的工作总让艾尼尔精疲力尽，但他却从没怀疑过印度电子商务强大的潜力引擎，而且坚信如果搭上了这架直升机，他也能跟着直上青云。
In the next 15 years India will see more people come online thanany other country. Last year e-commerce sales were about $16 billion; by 2020,according to Morgan Stanley, a bank, the online retail market could be morethan seven times larger. Such sales are expected to grow faster in India thanin any other market. This has attracted a flood of investment in e-commercefirms, the impact of which may go far beyond just displacing offline retail.
未来15年，印度的新入网人数将超过其他任何一个国家。去年全球电商销售额大约为160亿美元；而摩根斯坦利预估截至2020年，网络零售市场可再扩张七倍。然而，对于印度来说，电商销售额的膨胀可能更加飞速。一大波投资浪潮涌入电商公司，这很可能造成取代线下零售更为深远的影响。
India’s small businesseshave limited access to loans; most of its consumers do not have credit cards,or for that matter credit. The e-commerce companies are investing in logistics,helping merchants borrow and giving consumers new tools to pay for goods. AmitAgarwal, who runs Amazon.in, holds out the hope that “We could actually be acatalyst to transform India: how India buys, how India sells, and eventransform lives.”
印度小型企业能获得的贷款资源十分有限；而他们的大部分客户都没有信用卡，甚至连“信用”概念都无从谈起。而电商填补了这些空隙——他们投资物流产业，帮助生产商贷款融资，并且为消费者提供新型支付方式。亚马逊印度的管理人，阿密特阿加瓦尔表达了他对电商的期望：“也许我们将成为改变印度的催化剂：改变印度的购买方式，销售方式，甚至改变——我们的生活。
请输入标题Amazon wants to make India its second-biggest market, afterAmerica. For the time being, though, with just 12% of the market, it lagsbehind the home-grown successes, Flipkart (45%) and Snapdeal (26%). All three,as well as some smaller competitors, are spending at a blistering rate. Asglobal markets dip and Silicon Valley unicorns stumble, the internationalfunding that makes this possible may dry up. Doubts about the sustainability ofthe companies’ present plans were underlined when, onFebruary 26th, one of Morgan Stanley’s mutual funds markeddown the value of its stake in Flipkart by 27%. If the prospect of changingIndia a billion deliveries at a time is a beguiling one, it is not for the faint-hearted.
在这里亚马逊希望将印度孕育成继美国之后的全球第二大市场。不过目前，亚马逊在印度仅占有12%的市场份额，居于本土成功电商Flipkart（45%）和Snapdeal（26%）之后。这三大电商和其他一些规模较小的公司都在印度飞速扩张着。然而，由于全球市场不景气，硅谷独角兽们的发展也踯躅不前，这些电商平台的国际筹资源泉很有可能面临枯竭的境况。2月26日，摩根斯坦利其中一只共同基金将Flipkart的股权价值下调了27%，此举无疑使得这些电商平台的发展可持续性受到了又一波质疑。如果将印度电商飞速跃进式的发展前景比作醉人的琼浆玉液，那也足以让不能海饮的小酌之客望而却步。
India’s visionaries keeptheir spirits up by remembering the example of China. Chinese e-commerce grewby nearly 600% between 2010 and 2014, making the country the biggest e-commercemarket in the world today. It managed this largely through the growth ofindigenous companies: mighty Amazon merely nips at the heels of home-growngiants Alibaba and JD.com; eBay has all but left the stage. And in the processChina’s top e-commerce firms came to offer anastonishing range of services.
中国电商的成功先例给了印度企业家们相当大的鼓舞。2010至2014年间，中国电商壮大了整整六倍，而如今中国也成为世界上最大的电子商务市场。中国能取得今日成就，很大程度上得益于本土电商产业的惊人发展：和本土电商巨头阿里巴巴及京东集团相比，亚马逊不过是佛手指尖一粒灰，eBay更是无处立足早早退出了中国舞台。而现如今中国地电商巨头们争相拓展服务领域，范畴之广令人咋舌。
Alibaba, founded by Jack Ma in 1999 and now valued at $184billion, provides the best illustration. To calm anxieties about buying onlineAlibaba created Alipay, which holds a shopper’s paymentin escrow until he receives his order. The tool has evolved into afinancial-services company, Ant Financial, which last year serviced more than400m Alipay accounts and made over 2m loans to small businesses andentrepreneurs. To provide Chinese consumers with access to foreign goods thefirm’s services include not just online listingsbut marketing, shipping and help with customs.
阿里巴巴大概是最好的例证。1999年由马云创立的阿里巴巴集团如今估值已高达1840亿美元。当初为了缓解阿里淘宝网购的狂潮，集团推出了支付宝业务，将买主的货款汇集至第三方平台，收到货后再从第三方支付给卖家。现在，支付宝已经演化成了一家名为蚂蚁金服的金融公司，仅去年就为超过4亿支付宝账户提供了网上金融服务，并为小型企业和企业家们提供了超过两百万美元的贷款。为了满足广大中国客户全球淘货的需求，阿里的服务不仅囊括网络购物，还网罗了营销、物流以及客服。
然而，从很多方面来说，印度的电商之路都会比中国要艰难很多。不过即使印度电商发展平台基于较为贫困的人口和薄弱的基础建设，其前景依旧看好。2014年电商行业人均收入1570美元，到2025年预期可翻倍。印度人口三分之二均不到35岁，而年轻人普遍使用的智能手机为他们提供了大量互联网资源。据高盛统计，2014年12月智能手机已占印度手机的五分之一；而仅仅在6个月之后，该比例就提升至四分之一（详见表一）。摩根斯坦利预期，印度互联网入网率将从2015年的32%跃升至2020年的59%。到2030年，印度有望成为坐拥十亿入网人口的电子大国。
The prospect of a second market growing to a near-Chinese sizeattracts those who made a packet the first time round. Bob van Dijk, the chiefexecutive of Naspers, a South African firm that backed JD.com and Tencent,China’s largest social-media company, says he looksfor countries with big populations, rising smartphone use and few retailchains. India, where malls, supermarkets and branded chains, or what analystscall “organised retail”, account for just 10% or so of the total market, fitsthe bill perfectly.
在电商领域将印度打造成第二个与中国相近体量的市场深深吸引着那些在第一轮投资中赚得一钵金的投资者们。南非报业（Naspers）曾投资过京东集团，并且是中国最大的社交媒体公司腾讯的大股东。而作为南非报业CEO，鲍勃范迪克先生表示，他所寻找投资市场的标准是庞大的人口基数、上升的智能手机使用率以及零售产业链缺口。在印度，商场、超市、品牌连锁店，或者是分析师们所谓的“有组织零售”仅占到市场的10%——印度完美地契合了这些市场要求。
Naspers owns a 17% stake in Flipkart; other JD.com investors,including Tiger Global Management, in New York, and DST Global, a Russian fund,have also backed the company. Japan’s SoftBank, a biginvestor in Alibaba, has backed Snapdeal since 2013, and Alibaba itselffollowed suit last August. Meanwhile Alibaba’s AntFinancial owns a 20% stake in India’s Paytm, which beganas a mobile-wallet company and now competes with Snapdeal and Flipkart as anonline marketplace. The three firms have a combined valuation of almost $25billion.
南非报业拥有Flipkart17%的股权；而京东集团的其他股东们，包括来自纽约的老虎基金和俄罗斯的DST投资集团也同时持有Flipkart的股份。而阿里巴巴的大股东日本软件银行集团2013年入股Snapdeal，同年8月阿里巴巴集团也跟随软银入股。与此同时，阿里集团旗下的蚂蚁金服持有印度Paytm公司20%的股份。同样作为一家手机钱包支付平台公司，Paytm、Snapdeal和Flipkart三家公司的联合估值约为250亿美元。（Paytm，曾经的手机支付平台，现如今已经和Snapdeal、Flipkart三足鼎立，并且三家有着250亿美元的联合估值）
In contrast to those investors trying to recapitulate theirChinese success, Amazon is seeking to make up for its failure. Reduced lastyear to the ignominy of having to open a shop on Alibaba’s Tmallsite, Jeff Bezos is determined that this time, with more experience and in amore open market, things will be different.
与兴致勃勃地尝试复制中国电商神话的投资者们不同，亚马逊蓄势待发意图收复失地。尽管去年亚马逊不得不屈尊在阿里的天猫商城网内开设网店，杰夫贝佐斯依然相信，积累了更多经验后在这个更为开放的市场中，今年的行情会有所不同。
When Flipkart was founded, in 2007, Amazon was obviously itsmodel. The company began as a bookseller; the two engineers who started it,Sachin Bansal and Binny Bansal (not related), had worked for Amazon. Mr Bezos,though, is of the opinion that if anyone if going to be the Amazon of India, itshould be Amazon. In 2014, shortly after Flipkart announced a $1 billion roundof funding, Mr Bezos donned Indian clothes in Bangalore, hopped aboard arainbow-coloured truck and handed Mr Agarwal a $2 billion cheque. A firm whichearned over $100 billion in 2015 and has shareholders content to see more orless nothing by way of profits can afford such largesse.
2007年Flipkart设立之初，把亚马逊作为发展的蓝本。亚马逊的两位前员工萨钦班塞尔和比尼班塞尔（二者无血缘关系）离职创业，最初是想将Flipkart打造成网络书城。然而，杰夫贝佐斯坚持认为唯一能获得“印度的亚马逊”美称的成功电商，只能是亚马逊本尊。于是2014年，Flipkart前脚刚宣布获得十亿美元的融资，杰夫贝佐斯便在班加罗尔紧随其后穿上了印度民族服装，纵身跳上一辆七彩货车，代表亚马逊递给阿加瓦尔一张二十亿美元的支票——尽管2015年年收入逾1000亿美元，亚马逊的股东们却并没见到什么收益，也难怪亚马逊出手阔绰，如此慷慨。
Neither Flipkart, Amazon, nor any of the other big competitorsare following the retail strategy that led to Amazon’s successin the West. Indian regulations bar foreign-backed e-commerce firms from owninginventory, and so acting as a straightforward retailer is not an option. As aresult India’s top e-commerce companies look muchmore like Alibaba. Flipkart has become a marketplace where sellers offereverything from mobile phones to washing machines to handbags. Snapdeal, Amazonand Paytm run marketplaces too. The firms compete feverishly on price, offeringdiscounts that chomp away their own margins. In the long term, they mustdifferentiate themselves by honing services for sellers and shoppers alike, andoffering a better, broader range of products to more Indians than would havethem otherwise.
然而，无论是Flipkart、亚马逊还是任何一家大电商都没有在印度市场沿用当初亚马逊横扫西方的经营战略。印度法律法规禁止外商投资的电商公司储有存货，所以在印度市场它们无法成为直接零售商。于是乎印度的头牌电商们似乎与阿里巴巴有更多相似之处。如今Flipkart已经成长为一座百货商场，从小家电到手提包应有尽有。SNAPDEAL、PAYTM和亚马逊的业务也一样广泛。这些公司在疯狂的竞争中争相压价，折扣纷飞，却也啮噬了自己的盈利。为了长远发展，吸引更多客户，电商们应该彼此有所侧重区分，琢磨细化为不同客户群体提供服务，并提供更多质量高、品类全的商品。
The first step to that goal is to boost the number of sellers onthe company’s platform—it is the sellers,after all, who pay commissions and shipping fees. So companies offer a range ofservices to lure businesses to their sites. Flipkart’sprogrammes range from teaching sellers how to manage peak sales during diwalito advising fashion brands on trends and production. In February Amazonannounced a travelling studio-on-wheels, offering training, photography andother services to help shop-owners come online.
鉴于佣金与运费一般由网络卖家自掏腰包，电商拓展业务的当务之急应在迅速壮大卖方用户的数量。因此，各大电商们都铆劲推广各项服务，以期牢牢吸引忠实客户。Flipkart不仅为卖家客户提供光明节期间销售高峰时的管理教学，还会就潮流和生产流程等为各品牌提出建议。今年二月时，亚马逊也宣布为卖家客户提供“旅行工作室”服务，包括培训、摄影教学和其他网络开店的实用技能。
But the most important help they offer is in easing access tocredit. Small businesses, given their scarce financial statements and limitedcredit history, have long had trouble obtaining loans from India’s banks. They often rely on expensive loans from neighbours orfamily. The e-commerce companies have strong incentives to make them betteroffers—and because they have access to online-sales data they are in aprivileged position from which to help lenders judge credit risk.
不过电商平台为网络卖家提供的最重要的服务应当是更为便捷的信贷途径。由于不能提供足够且完善的财务报告，也很少有授信记录，网络卖家一直很难获得银行贷款，只能依赖从亲友处获得的利率高昂的贷款。而电商公司能够直接获得各家网店的销售数据，也就能够更为准确地判断贷款风险，因此这些平台也更乐意为它们提供更为优惠的信用贷款。
Take Sumit Agarwal (no relation to Amazon’s MrAgarwal), a young entrepreneur who started an online shoe business in 2011. Inhis warehouse in New Delhi workers pack and scan shipments among towers of shoeboxes.The early days were uncertain; his family’s reactionwhen the firm started, he says, was “What the hell is this guy doing?” Now itis easier for such entrepreneurs to find the capital with which to grow. WhenMr Agarwal logs into his seller’s account on Amazon.inhis screen offers a column of short-term loans, their rates calculated usingdata from his transactions. Other e-commerce firms have similar schemes. InJanuary Snapdeal announced that the State Bank of India would approve loans ofup to $37,000 instantly if it liked the look of the data that Snapdeal providedon the borrower.
苏密特阿加瓦尔（与亚马逊的阿加瓦尔先生非亲属）作为一个在2011年创业的网络鞋商，就是电商信贷的受益人。在他新德里的制鞋仓库中，经常能看到忙碌的工人穿梭在鞋盒堆成的高塔间，为货物打包或是扫描着订单。在他创业初期，事业前景相当不明朗。用他自己的话说，他家人先前对此充满了不解——“天啊，这孩子到底在做什么？”现在，像他一样的创业者们有了更多机会获得初始运营资金。阿加瓦尔表示，登陆亚马逊账户后屏幕上会显示出一列不同的短期贷款选项，贷款利率都是基于他以往的销售转账记录。其他电商平台也都有类似的功能。今年一月Snapdeal甚至公告，印度国家银行可根据Snapdeal卖家用户所提供的数据，为网上店铺提供上限为37000美元的贷款。
Once a site has sellers, the second challenge is to helpconsumers buy their wares. Anil carries a clunky credit-card reader with him onhis rounds, but most people pay cash. The e-commerce sites want to change that.Paytm lets customers add money to a digital wallet that can then be used toshop online, top up a mobile phone, lend money to a friend, pay a bill or use aservice such as an Uber taxi. It has 120m digital-wallet accounts, nearly sixtimes India’s number of credit cards. Snapdealbought its own mobile payments company in April. Amazon purchased anonline-payments service in February.
一旦卖家数量到位，接下来的核心任务就是帮助买家们购物了。快递员艾尼尔送货时总会带上信用卡刷卡机，但大部分人还是更愿意付现金。各大电商平台希望改变这种局面。例如Paytm的工作原理就是让消费者先将货款打入第三方的电子钱包，再用电子钱包进行网购、充话费、亲友转账或者为Uber等APP付款。如今Paytm管理着超过一亿两千万账户，该数字是全印度信用卡数目的将近六倍。Snapdeal也在四月买下了自己的手机支付系统公司，亚马逊二月时也购入了专用的网上付款平台。
来源：微信公众号 东北偏北