GSOE9820 Project Management WEEK9

1. Managing Risk

Risk: Is the potential of losing something of value, weighed against the potential to gain something of value.

Risk的构成：Cause + Event + Effect

项目管理的精髓就是risk management，包括risk event, consequences, anticipation和contigency plans

risk management process:
-Risk planning and context
-Risk identification
-Risk Assessment
-Risk Response Development
-Risk Response Control

1.1.Risk planning and context

plan includes: objectives, methodology, roles and responsibilities, budgeting, timing, risk categories, scoring interpretation, tolerance thresholds, reporting formats, tracking
context要考虑外在的环境（政策、社会、法律和地理等方面），内在的情况（公司文化，运营状况，公司战略等），以及项目情况。

1.2.Risk identification

识别出所有可能的risk，可以根据个人经验、头脑风暴、Risk breakdown structure等。

1.3.Risk Assessment

通常从三个方面评估风险：
-Probability/Likelihood
-Impact/Severity
-Ease/Difficulty of Detection

1.4.Risk Response Development

识别潜在风险后，应对策略通常有四种：
-Mitigating risk，通过技术或者其他手段降低风险，比如在工地穿安全鞋戴安全帽；
-Avoiding risk，通过改变project plan来避免某些不必要的风险；
-Transferring risk，通过第三方等方式来分摊风险，比如保险；
-Accepting risk，如果必须面对，就妥善做好应对策略。

Types of risks：
-Technical，通常很难应对
-Schedule，做好time padding，有充足的slack
-Cost，做好contigency funding
-Funding

要尽可能将风险转化为一种机会：
to exploit, share, enhance and accept

1.5.Risk Response Control

执行应对策略；监管引发事件；按要求准备应急方案；小心新的风险。