编者按：苏格兰想要独立的悖论在于它试图脱离一个联盟以加入另一个联盟。本文详细分析了苏格兰脱英会带来的各种影响。在文章看来，脱欧本来就是一个错误，而脱英只会错上加错。苏格兰或许能赢得所谓的主权，但在弱肉强食的国际社会，它的独立并不见得对自己是好事。本文译自《经济学人》3月18日刊。
Brexit and Scotland
英国脱欧和苏格兰独立
Leave one union, lose another
脱离此联盟，失去彼联盟
Scots should read Brexit as an argument for remaining in Britain, not leaving it
苏格兰应该将英国脱欧看作留在不列颠的理由，而非脱离它的理由
1）THIS was meant to be the week when a proud, sovereign nation** served notice** that it wanted to leave the overbearing, unrepresentative union to which it had long been shackled. And so it was—but not in quite the way that Theresa May had imagined. Britain’s prime minister had planned to trigger Article 50 of the European Union treaty, beginning the two-year process of Britain’s exit from the EU. But she was forced to delay her plans when Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, upstaged her by announcing that she would seek a new referendum on Scottish independence.
1）这注定是那个（特殊的）星期，一个骄傲霸气的主权国家于本周正式通告，它想离开专横而不具代表性的且一直束缚着它的联盟时。而它确实是（一个特殊的星期）——但不是以特雷莎·梅想象的方式。英国首相计划启动《欧洲联盟（里斯本）条约》第50条，开启英国脱欧为期两年的程序。但她被迫延迟自己的计划，当苏格兰首席部长妮古拉·斯特金通过宣布为苏格兰独立争取一次新的公投而抢了她的风头。
2）The threat of a second constitutional earthquake in as many years is the latest reminder of Brexit’s unintended consequences. The English-led move to leave a 40-year-old union with Europe is pulling at the seams of its 300-year-old union with Scotland. Mrs May’s fundamentalist interpretation of the Brexit referendum—that it requires departure from the EU’s single market and an end to free movement to and from the continent—ignores the concerns of Scots, who voted to remain, and creates an intractable problem for Northern Ireland, which shares a land border with the EU. But the lesson for Scots from Brexit is more complex than Ms Sturgeon suggests. The arguments she puts forward for remaining in the EU highlight the weaknesses in their case for independence.
fundamentalist: a person who sticks very closely to a particular set of principles.
2）第二次宪法地震（苏格兰脱英）的威胁同样存在多年，是英国脱欧意想不到的后果的最新提醒。英格兰主导的与40年的欧盟脱离行动正在扯动它与苏格兰300多年的联盟的接缝。梅姨对于英国脱欧公投的原教旨主义者的解释是——它要求离开欧盟的单一市场，并终结向欧洲大陆及从欧洲大陆自由迁徙—忽略了那些投票支持留欧的苏格兰人的担忧，并给北爱尔兰带来棘手的问题，该地区与欧盟有边境接壤。但苏格兰从英国脱欧事件中得到的教训比斯特金女士所暗示的更复杂。她提出的留在欧盟的论点突出了苏独的弱点。
3）The Scottish independence referendum of 2014 was billed by nationalists as a “once-in-a-generation opportunity”. But they are right to demand another. Ms Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) won an election last year on the promise of a new referendum in the event of a “material change” in circumstances. Brexit is as material as it gets. Mrs May and Britain’s Parliament, the consent of which is needed for another plebiscite, must not deny the Scottish people a second vote.
bill as：to advertise or describe something in a particular way
e.g. The castle bills itself as the oldest in England.
Material：important and having a noticeable effect
3）2014年苏格兰独立公投被民族主义者描述为“一代人只会经历一次的机会”。但他们正在要求另一个机会。去年斯特金女士的苏格兰民族党（SNP）赢得了选举并承诺，一旦情况发生“质变”，就举行新的公民投票。英国脱欧就是她所说的“质变”。梅姨和英国议会（另一次公民投票需要他们的同意）一定不会拒绝苏格兰人民第二次投票。
If at first you don’t secede...
如果一开始你没有退出…
4）But Mrs May has the power to delay it—and on March 16th she said that there should be no referendum before Britain’s relations with the EU are clear. Ms Sturgeon wants the vote to take place at some point between autumn 2018 and spring 2019, when Brexit negotiations will be entering their final, fraught phase. She suggested this week that this would allow an independent Scotland speedily to rejoin the EU. That is mistaken. There is no prospect of Scotland completing “Scoxit” before Britain leaves the EU (at the time of the referendum in 2014, an exit period for Scotland of 18 months was pencilled in). European officials have made clear that there would be no “fast track” entry process for a country that was previously part of a member state.
fraught : If you say that a situation or action is fraught, you mean that it is worrying or difficult.
e.g. It has been a somewhat fraught day.
pencil in：If an event or appointment is pencilled in, it has been agreed that it should take place, but it will have to be confirmed later.
e.g. He told us that the tour was pencilled in for the following March.
4）但是梅姨有权力推迟它——3月16日，她说，在英国与欧盟的关系厘清之前，不应该进行全民公决。斯特金女士想要在2018年秋季或2019年春季举行投票，那时英国脱欧谈判将进入最后的、困难的阶段。她于本周提出，这将让一个独立的苏格兰迅速重返欧盟。那是大错特错。英国脱欧之前苏格兰完成“苏格兰脱英”是没有可能的（2014年那次公投时，苏格兰脱英需为期18个月被暂时确定了）。欧洲官员已经明确表示，对于一个以前属于（欧盟）成员国的国家来说，不会有“快车道”加入欧盟程序。
5）What holding a referendum during Brexit negotiations would achieve, as Ms Sturgeon surely knows, is maximum pressure on the British government, which would be incapable of fighting on a second front in Scotland. And it would damage Scotland’s own interests: first by muddying the Brexit talks, in which Scotland has a stake, whether it ends up as part of Britain or not; and second by forcing Scots to vote before it is clear what sort of deal Britain is going to get with the EU.
5）在英国脱欧谈判期间举行全民公投，正如斯特金女士肯定知道的那样，会对英国政府造成最大的压力，它将无力在苏格兰这一第二战线上（同时）战斗。而这也会损害苏格兰自身的利益：首先这会使英国脱欧会谈变得复杂，苏格兰在其中也有自己的一份，无论它最终是否脱离英国；其次，这会迫使苏格兰人在英国将与欧盟达成什么样的协议明确之前进行投票。
6）Whenever the second referendum campaign begins, Brexit will make life trickier for the unionist side. Already Mrs May is finding that her position on the European Union makes it harder to defend the British union. Ms Sturgeon says she wants Scots “to be in control of events and not just at the mercy of them”. How can British ministers disagree, when so many of them urged Britons to “vote Leave, take control” last summer?
6）第二次公投活动无论何时开始，英国脱欧都会使联盟主义者过得更加艰难。梅姨已经发现，她在欧盟的地位使得捍卫英联邦变得更难。斯特金女士说，她希望苏格兰人“能够掌控事态，而不仅仅由他们（英格兰人）摆布”。英国的部长们怎么能不同意呢？去年夏天，有这么多人敦促英国人“投票脱欧，自己掌控”？
7）Yet Brexit creates problems for the nationalists, too. Just as it sounds unconvincing for Brexiteers now to argue for the union, it is difficult for Ms Sturgeon to beat the drum both for membership of the EU and for exit from Britain. As she has pointed out, it is a bad idea to leave the single market to which you send the lion’s share of your exports. For Scotland, that means Britain. She laments the hardening of Britain’s borders with Europe. Yet an independent Scotland might well mean a harder border with England, particularly if Scotland rejoined the EU. Pro-Europeans have noted that the sovereignty you regain by leaving a union is illusory when it also means losing the clout you get as a member of a more powerful group. So it would be if Scotland left Britain: it would indeed be more sovereign in a pure sense, but at the cost of its seat on the UN Security Council, nuclear weapons, G7 membership and much else that aids true self-determination in the world.
beat the drum: to proclaim as meritorious or significant ; publicize vigorously
7）然而，英国脱欧也为民族主义者造成了问题。对脱欧者来说，现在讨论联盟（即苏格兰和英格兰的联盟）听起来不令人信服；同样对斯特金女士来说，鼓吹加入欧盟同时脱离英国也很难（让人信服）。正如她所指出的，离开一个本国出口绝大部分销往的单一市场，这是一个糟糕的主意。对于苏格兰来说，这个单一市场意味着英国。她痛惜英国与欧洲日益僵化的边境。然而，独立的苏格兰很可能意味着与英国更加僵化的边境，尤其是如果苏格兰重返欧盟。亲欧洲的苏格兰人已注意到，苏格兰离开英联邦重获的主权是虚幻的，这也意味着失去作为一个更强大的群体成员的影响力。所以，如果苏格兰离开了英国：从纯粹意义上讲，它确实更具有主权，但要为此付出巨大代价：联合国安理会的席位、核武器、七国集团成员以及其他许多在国际上对真正的自决权有帮助的东西。
8）The Scots are in a wretched position. But they should be in no doubt: exit from Britain would compound the mistake Britain is making by leaving the EU. Though Brexit is the main motive for Ms Sturgeon’s renewed independence push, it is also a warning of the perils of going it alone.
8）苏格兰人处境不妙。但有一点他们应该是毫无疑问的：苏格兰退出英国将加重英国脱欧所犯下的错误。虽然英国脱欧是斯特金女士推动重新独立的主要动力，但它也是单打独斗的一个危险警告。
试着翻译以下句子：
1、但她被迫延迟自己的计划，当苏格兰首席部长妮古拉·斯特金通过宣布为苏格兰独立争取一次新的公投而抢了她的风头。
2、 2014年苏格兰独立公投被民族主义者描述为“一代人只会经历一次的机会”。
3、苏格兰离开英联邦重获的主权是虚幻的，这也意味着失去作为一个更强大的群体成员的影响力。
原文出处：经济学人杂志
翻译：追梦心；校对：七呵夫；编辑：七呵夫
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