‘Mindware’ and ‘Superforecasting’
来源:https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/18/books/review/mindware-and-superforecasting.html
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[1]A little after midnight, while writing this review, I took a break to get some beer from my local supermarket. As I stood in line the lights suddenly dimmed/dɪm/throughout the store. I must have looked puzzled. “We do that because less people come in this late,” the clerk/dɪm/explained. “There are fewer customers, so we need less light?” I asked. “Correct,” he said. His non sequitur/'sɛkwɪtʊr/had me leaving the store fortified['fɔ:tifaid]with both a six-pack andthe reinforced conviction/kən'vɪkʃən/that books on how to think should be required reading in high schools across the country.“Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking,” by the psychologist Richard E. Nisbett, and “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” by the psychologist Philip E. Tetlock and the journalist Dan Gardner, are two such books.
sequitur/'sɛkwɪtʊr/n. 推断，结论
non sequitur:不合逻辑的推论
fortified['fɔ:tifaid]adj. 加强的
conviction/kən’vɪkʃən/深信
[2]The six sections of “Mindware” offer a variety of perspectives on how we think: the role of the unconscious in our judgments and decisions; the lessons of behavioral/bi'heivjərəl/economics; the principles of probability and statistics/stə'tɪstɪks/; recommendations for how to test your ideas; and two sections on reasoning and the nature of knowledge.
[3]Nisbett is famous for hisgroundbreakingwork in several areas of psychology;Malcolm Gladwell called him “the mostinfluentialthinker in my life.” And so a book from Nisbett on this important subjectis bound tobe met with high expectations.
groundbreakingadj. 开创性的
bound势必
[4]My verdict/'vɝdɪkt/is mixed. If you are looking for a survey of the topics covered in the book’s six sections, this is a good one. You’ll learn about ouroverzealousnessto see patterns, ourhindsight/'haɪndsaɪt/bias, our loss aversion/ə'vɝʒn/, the illusions/ɪ'luʒn/of randomness/'rændəmnis/and the importance of the scientific method, all in under 300 pages of text.But there isn’t much in “Mindware” that is new, and if you’ve read some of the many recent books on the unconscious, randomness, decision making and pop economics,then the material covered here will be familiar to you.
verdict/‘vɝdɪkt/n. 结论；裁定
overzealousness 过分热心的
hindsight/‘haɪndsaɪt/事后诸葛亮
aversion/ə’vɝʒn/n. 厌恶；讨厌的人
illusions/ɪ'luʒn/错觉
[5]Nisbett writes clearly, and he takes his time with difficult concepts ranging from multiple regression/rɪ'ɡrɛʃən/(which answers the question, Given many variables that contribute to some outcome, what is the effect of each?) to dialectical/ˌdaɪə'lɛktɪkl/reasoning (a method of argument for resolving opposing views in order to establish truth). But thedry toneof the book, along with Nisbett’s practice of telling us what he is going to say and reiterating/rɪ'ɪtəret/what he has just said, gives “Mindware” a textbook feel.
drytone 平淡的语气
dialectical/ˌdaɪə’lɛktɪkl/adj. 辩证的；辩证法的；方言的
reiterating/rɪ’ɪtəret/vt. 重申；反复地做
[6]Where “Mindware” addresses the issue ofmaking sense ofa complex world from many angles, “Superforecasting” focuses on one issue: how we form theories of what will happen in the future. “Superforecasting” is a sequel/'sikwəl/of sorts to Tetlock’s 2005 book “Expert Political Judgment,” in which he analyzed 82,361 predictions made by 284 experts in fields like political science, economics and journalism.He found that about 15 percent of events they claimed had little or no chance of happening did in fact happen, while about 27 percent of those labeled sure things didn’t.Tetlock concluded that the experts did little better than a “dart-throwing chimp.”
making sense of 搞清楚...
sequel/‘sikwəl/n. 续集；结局；继续；后果
[7]The primate/'praɪmet/metaphor resurfaces/ˌri'sɝfɪs/in this new book. The authorssingle outThomas Friedman of The New York Times for being an “exasperatingly evasive” forecaster, and they point to the inaccuracy/ɪn'ækjərəsi/of financialpundits/'pʌndɪt/at CNBC, whose performance prompted Jon Stewart to remark, “If I’d only followed CNBC’s advice, I’d have a million dollars today — provided I’d started with a hundred million dollars.”
single out挑出；挑选
primate/‘praɪmet/adj. 灵长目动物的；首要的
resurfaces/ˌri’sɝfɪs/vi. 重新露面；浮上水面
pundits/'pʌndɪt/n. 专家；博学者
[8]But unlike “Mindware,” most of the material in “Superforecasting” is new, and includes a compendium/kəm'pɛndɪəm/of best practices for prediction. The book describes the findings of the Good Judgment Project, an effort started by Tetlock and his collaborator/kə'læbə'retɚ/(and wife), Barbara Mellers, in 2011, which was funded by an arm of the American intelligence community.
compendium/kəm'pɛndɪəm/n. 纲要；概略
[9]National security agencies have an obvious interest in Tetlock’s project. By one estimate/'ɛstə,met/, the United States has 20,000 intelligence analysts/'ænəlist/working full time to assess issues like the probability of an Israeli sneak attack on Iran in the next month, or the departure of Greece from the eurozone by the end of the year. That is nearly four times the number of physics faculty at American research universities. And so money spent on improving results must have seemed like a good investment.
[10]It was. The Good Judgment Project used the Internet to recruit/rɪ'krut/2,800 volunteers, ordinary people with an interest in current affairs — a retired computer programmer, a social services worker, a homemaker. Over four years, the researchers asked them toemploy/ɪm'plɔɪ/public news and information sources to estimate the probability that various events would occur, posing nearly 500 questions of the sort intelligence analysts must answer every day. The volunteers were also asked to reaffirm/'riə'fɝm/or adjust those probabilities daily, until a question “expired” at a pre-announced closing date.
employ/ɪm'plɔɪ/vt. 使用，采用
reaffirm/'riə'fɝm/
vt. 再肯定，重申；再断言
[11]Some of the volunteers performed strikingly/'straɪkɪŋli/better than the pack. Tetlock and Mellers studied their strategies, and what they learned about the thinking and methodologyˌmɛθə'dɑlədʒi/of these “superforecasters” is the heart of what is presented in the book.
strikingly/'straɪkɪŋli/adv. 显著地；突出地，引人注目地
methodologyˌmɛθə'dɑlədʒi/n. 方法学，方法论
[12]The central lessons of “Superforecasting” can be distilled/dɪ'stɪld/into a handful of directives/daɪ'rɛktɪv/. Base predictions on data and logic, and try to eliminate personal bias. Keep track of records so that you know how accurate you (and others) are.Think in terms of probabilities and recognize that everything is uncertain.Unpack a question into its component parts, distinguishing between what is known and unknown, andscrutinizing/'skrutənaɪz/your assumptions.
distilled/dɪ’stɪld/adj. 由蒸馏得来的；净化的
directives/daɪ'rɛktɪv/n. 指示；指令
scrutinizing/'skrutənaɪz/vt. 详细检查；细看
[13]Those lessons are hardly surprising, though the accuracy that ordinary people regularly attained through their meticulous/mə'tɪkjələs/application did amaze me.Unfortunately, few of us seem to follow these principles in our daily lives.The prescriptions/prɪ'skrɪpʃən/in both “Superforecasting” and “Mindware” should offer us all an opportunity to understand and react more intelligently to the confusing world around us.
meticulous/mə'tɪkjələs/
adj. 一丝不苟的；小心翼翼的；拘泥小节的
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the reinforced conviction/kən'vɪkʃən/ that books on how to think should be required reading in high schools across the country.
Nisbett is famous for his groundbreaking work in several areas of psychology
But there isn’t much in “Mindware” that is new
then the material covered here will be familiar to you
He found that about 15 percent of events they claimed had little or no chance of happening did in fact happen, while about 27 percent of those labeled sure things didn’t. Tetlock concluded that the experts did little better than a “dart-throwing chimp
But unlike “Mindware,” most of the material in “Superforecasting” is new, and includes a compendium /kəm'pɛndɪəm/ of best practices for prediction
Some of the volunteers performed strikingly/'straɪkɪŋli/ better than the pack
Think in terms of probabilities and recognize that everything is uncertain. Unpack a question into its component parts, distinguishing between what is known and unknown, and scrutinizing/'skrutənaɪz/ your assumptions
Unfortunately, few of us seem to follow these principles in our daily lives. The prescriptions /prɪ'skrɪpʃən/ in both “Superforecasting” and “Mindware” should offer us all an opportunity to understand and react more intelligently to the confusing world around us