Asking the Right Questions - Chapter 11

Are the Statistics Deceptive?

Summary

Statistics are evidence expressed as numbers. Numbers appears to be scientific and precise, which make evidence illustrated by statistics quite impressive. But statistics can and often lie.Their erroneous reasoning requires readers’ careful detection.

The first strategy of determining whether the statistics are deceptive is to trace its source, which is helpful if we want to rule out some unknowable and biased statistics. Secondly, try to confirm the range and distribution of the statistics when encountering averages, which vary on different occasions.

Communicators can deceive their audience as well, when they use statistics that prove one thing but then claim to have proved something quite different or when they omit information intentionally.

If used appropriately, statistics are a valuable tool. They help us to make better understandings of trends and patterns, predict the future and help us to strengthen our arguments. To make careful arguments with statistics, we may have to take some time away from our argument to explain how the statistics were produced, the implications of the statistics, and the limitations of them, so as to improve our credibility with our readers.

Thought

统计数据在作文写作中是一大利器，但一定要慎用。文章也很明确讲到了几点：首先，统计数据的来源决定了它的权威性和准确信。阅读到或使用统计数据时一定要追本溯源，查清源头，即使对结论负责，也是自己负责，更是为今后潜在的读者和听众负责。其二，平均数也一样带有欺骗性。使用不同的计算方法会得到不同结果的平均数，数据的范围和分布不同也会影响平均数的高低，这就需要我们多加权衡。其三，数据虽然科学性强，但使用者的使用方法决定了它的作用，相同的数据可以得出不同的观点，有些甚至有所扭曲；不同的数据如果有意省略掉一些重要内容，得出的结论也全然不同。所以，下一次我们再遇到统计数据时，无论是接受还是拒绝作者的观点，都要格外小心。