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Daffodils are a messenger of spring. 水仙花是报春的使者- 译者
All around the world, the economy is picking up
世界各国经济重拾升势
“If winter comes,” the poet Shelley asked, “can Spring be far behind?” For the best part of a decade the answer as far as the world economy has been concerned has been an increasingly weary “Yes it can”. Now, though, after testing the faith of the most patient souls with glimmers that came to nothing, things seem to be warming up. It looks likely that this year, for the first time since 2010, rich-world and developing economies will put on synchronised growth spurts.
“如果冬天来了，”诗人雪莱问道，“春天还会远吗？”过去十年的大部分时间里，就世界经济而言，答案越来越让人厌倦，“是的，还远着呢”。星星之火燃了又熄，哪怕最沉得住气的人的信心也倍受煎熬。不过现在情况似乎正在好起来。看起来今年很可能是2010年以来发达国家和发展中经济体首次实现同步增长的一年。
珀西·比希·雪莱(Percy·Bysshe·Shelley，1792年8月4日~1822年7月8日)，简称雪莱，英国著名浪漫主义诗人，被认为是历史上最出色的英语诗人之一。英国浪漫主义民主诗人、第一位社会主义诗人、小说家、哲学家、散文随笔和政论作家、改革家、柏拉图主义者和理想主义者，受空想社会主义思想影响颇深。
雪莱名言名句还有：浅水是喧哗的，深水是沉默的。/饥饿和爱情统治着世界。/过去属于死神，未来属于你自己.。/读书越多，越感到腹中空虚。-360百科
There are still plenty of reasons to fret:China’s debt mountain; the flaws in the foundations of the euro; Donald Trump’s protectionist tendencies; and so on. But amid these anxieties are real green shoots.For six months or so there has been growing evidence of increased activity. It has been clearest in the export-oriented economies of Asia. But it is visible in Europe, in America and even, just, in hard-hit emerging markets like Russia and Brazil.
还有很多理由值得担心：中国堆积如山的债务; 欧元基础的固有缺陷; 唐纳德·特朗普的保护主义倾向等等。但在这种种焦虑之中生长着复苏的真正萌芽。越来越多的证据显示经济活动正在增加，而且已经持续了六个月左右。这在亚洲出口导向型经济中最为明显。但在欧洲，美国甚至那些受到严重打击的新兴市场如俄罗斯和巴西等国内也清晰可见。
The signals are strongest from the more cyclical parts of the global economy, notably manufacturing. Surveys of purchasing managers in America, the euro zone and Asia show factories getting a lot busier. Global trading hubs such as Taiwan and South Korea are bustling.Taiwan’s National Development Council publishes a composite indicator that tracks the economy’s strength: blue is sluggish, green is stable and red is overheating.The overall economy has been flashing green lights for seven months and is pushing up towards the red zone.
在全球经济中更具周期性特点的经济部门里，这些信号是最强的，特别是制造业。在美国，欧元区和亚洲针对采购经理的调查显示工厂越来越繁忙。全球贸易中心如台湾和韩国都是一片繁华景象。台湾发展局发布了一个跟踪经济活力的综合指标：蓝色表示萧条，绿色表示稳定，红色表示过热。整体经济已经停留在绿色区域达七个月，而且正在向红色区域推进。
This reflects, among other things, demand for semiconductors around the world; This February exports from Taiwan were up by 28% compared with 2016. Although that is the most striking example,exports are up elsewhere in the region, too. South Korea’s rose by 20% in February compared with a year earlier. In yuan terms, China’s were 11% higher in the first two months of 2017 than in 2016.
这反映了全球对半导体的需求;今年2月台湾出口量较2016年增长了28％。这是最引人注目的例子，但该地区其他地方的出口也在增长。韩国二月份与去年同期相比增长了20％。以人民币计，中国在2017年前两个月比2016年同期增长了11％。
This apparent vigour is in part just a reflection of how bad things looked 12 months ago; suppliers who overdid the gloom in early 2016 are restocking. Asia’s taut supply chains also owe something to the two-to-three-year life-cycle of consumer gadgetry. On March 10th LG Electronics launched its new G6 smartphone. Its larger rival, Samsung, is due to unveil its Galaxy S8 phone by the end of the month; a new iPhone will be out later this year.
这种明显的活力在一定程度上反映了12个月前的糟糕状态; 2016年初过分悲观的供应商如今正在补充库存。亚洲紧绷的供应链也不能完全满足只有两三年生命周期的消费电子产品的需求。 3月10日LG电子推出了新G6智能手机。其更大的竞争对手三星，将是在月底揭开Galaxy S8手机的面纱;新iPhone将在今年晚些时候推出。
But the signs of life run deeper than just those specifics would allow. Business spending on machinery and equipment is picking up. A proxy measure based on shipments of capital goods constructed by economists at JP Morgan Chase, a bank, suggests that worldwide equipment spending grew at an annualised rate of 5.25% in the last quarter of 2016.
生发的迹象比那些小细节更深刻，机械和设备的业务支出正在上升。摩根大通银行经济学家构造的基于资本品运输量的间接测量指标表明，2016年第四季度，全球设备支出以5.25％的年率增长。
The good news goes beyond manufacturing, too. American employers, excluding farms, added 235,000 workers to their payrolls in February, well above the recent average. The European Commission’s economic-sentiment index, based on surveys of service industries, manufacturers,builders and consumers, is as high as it has been since 2011. After a strong fourth quarter,the Bank of Japan revised up its forecast for growth in the current fiscal year from 1% to 1.4%. Such optimism raises two big questions: what is behind this nascent recovery and will it take hold?
好消息超出了制造业的范围。2月份，美国雇主（不包括农场）的雇佣工人增加了23.5万，远高于近期平均水平。对服务行业，制造商，建筑商和消费者的调查显示，欧洲委员会的经济景气指数与2011年以来最高水平相当。第四季度强劲的表现令日本央行修订了这一财年的增长预测，从1％提升至1.4％。这种乐观主义引出两大问题：这次刚刚起步的复苏背后的原因是什么？我们能够牢牢把握得住吗？
Lilacs from the dead land
来自死地的丁香
April is the cruellest month,breeding Lilacs out of the dead land
The revival’s roots can be traced to the early months of last year, when a possible calamity was averted. At the end of 2015 stock markets tumbled in response to renewed anxiety about China’s economy.Prices at the factory gate, which had been falling steadily for several years, had started to plunge. There were fears that China would be forced to devalue its currency sharply: a cheaper yuan might spur China’s oversupplied industries to export more, fatten profits and service their growing debts.
复苏的源头可以追溯到去年的最初几个月，当时一场可能的灾难刚刚被避免。 2015年底，股市因为对中国经济的担忧再起而暴跌。过去几年只是稳定下滑的出厂价格开始暴跌。大家担心中国将被迫大幅贬值货币：更便宜的人民币可能刺激中国的过剩产业输出更多，获利更丰并为其日益增长的债务买单。
Such a desperate measure would, in effect,have exported its manufacturing deflation to the rest of the world, forcing rivals to cut prices or to devalue in turn. The expectation that China’s economy was weakening pushed raw-material prices to their lowest level since 2009. The oil price briefly sunk below $30 a barrel. That worsened the plight of Brazil and Russia, already mired in deep recessions. It also intensified the pressure to cut investment in America’s shale-oil industry.
这种令人绝望的措施实际上会把中国的制造业通缩输出到世界其他国家，迫使竞争对手降低价格或随之贬值。中国经济疲软的预期将原材料价格推至2009年以来的最低水平。油价短暂下跌至每桶30美元以下。这使已深陷衰退泥沼中的巴西和俄罗斯雪上加霜。这也加剧了美国页岩油产业削减投资的压力。
To stabilise the yuan in the face of rapid outflows of capital, China spent $300bn of its foreign-currency reserves between November 2015 and January 2016. Capital controls were tightened to stop money leaking abroad. Banks juiced up the economy with faster credit growth. With capital now boxed in, much of it flowed into local property: house prices soared, first in the big cities and then beyond. Sales taxes on small cars were reduced by half. Between them,these controls and stimuli did the trick.
面对资本的快速流出，为稳定人民币，中国从2015年11月至2016年1月间花费了3000亿美元外汇储备。资本控制被收紧以阻止资金流向国外。银行用更快的信贷增长来刺激经济增长。随着被控制在国内，资本大部分流入了房地产市场：房价飙升，首先在大城市，然后扩散到其他城市。小型汽车的消费税减少了一半。在它们之间，这些控制和刺激解决了问题。
Soon stocks of raw materials that had been hurriedly run down started to look skimpy. Iron-ore prices jumped by 19% in just one day last March. Curbs on Chinese coal production underpinned a mini-revival in global prices. Steel prices rose sharply, helped by the closure of a few high-cost mills as well as more construction spending. Oil climbed back above $50 a barrel(though it has slipped back a bit recently).
不久，匆匆压缩下来的原材料库存开始好像不够用了。铁矿石价格在去年三月仅一天内就上涨了19％。对中国煤炭生产的遏制支撑了全球价格的小幅复苏。钢铁价格也大幅上涨，原因是几家高成本钢厂的关闭以及更多的建筑支出。原油价格爬升到每桶50美元以上（虽然最近已经下滑了一些）。
By the end of the year producer-price inflation in China—and across Asia—was positive again. And China’s nominal GDP, which had slowed more than real GDP, sped up again. Central bankers, who had been employing various measures to forestall global deflation, were mightily relieved. On March 9th Mario Draghi, boss of the European Central Bank(ECB), proudly declared that the risk of deflation had “largely disappeared”.
到去年年底，中国和亚洲的生产者价格指数（PPI）由负转正。中国的名义GDP（比真实GDP增长慢一些）加速了。采取了各种措施防止全球通缩的中央银行家如释重负。 3月9日，欧洲中央银行（ECB）波士马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）自豪地宣布，通缩风险“基本消失了”。
His relief was a recognition that, though a surge in inflation will flood the economy’s engine, a gentle dose can serve as a helpful lubricant. At a global level, a bit more factory-gate inflation lifts profits, since a lot of manufacturers’ production costs are largely fixed. Fatter profits notionly make corporate debt less burdensome, they also free cash for capital spending, which creates further demand for businesses in a virtuous circle.
他放下心来是认识到，虽然大水漫灌的通胀将使经济发动机熄火，温和的剂量可以作为有用的润滑剂。在全球层面，更高的出厂价格提高了利润，因为很多制造商的生产成本在很大程度上是固定的。更多的利润意味着企业债务负担减轻，他们有更多的自由现金进行资本支出，在一个良性循环中进一步创造商业需求。
Since worries about China and deflation receded, spending on things that show some faith in future income has indeed begun to stir. A revival in producer prices and thus profits is leading to business investment around the world. In the last quarter of 2016 business spending in Japan rose at an annualised rate of 8%, according to official GDP figures. Gartner, a tech consultancy, predicted in December that consumers and companies would increase their spending on IT by 2.7% in 2017, up from 0.5% in 2016. John Lovelock, a research analystat Gartner, says the biggest jump in spending is forecast for the Asia-Pacific region.
由于对中国和通缩的担忧消退，消费支出确实已经开始蠢蠢欲动，这显示了大家对未来收入的信心。生产者价格和利润的复苏促进了全球的商业投资。根据官方GDP数据，2016年第四季度日本企业支出按年率增长了8％。12月份，技术咨询公司Gartner预计，2017年消费者和公司的IT支出将增加2.7％，高于2016年的0.5％。Gartner的分析师约翰·洛夫洛夫（John Lovelock）表示，亚太是预测中上升幅度最大的地区。
Continuous as the stars that shine?
如繁星灿烂，连绵不绝？
In America imports of both consumer goods and capital goods are up. There has been speculation that the “animal spirits”of business folk have been lifted by Mr Trump’s election in November, and that cuts in tax and regulations, and a subsequent return of the estimated $1trn of untaxed cash held abroad by companies based in America, will fuel a big boom in business investment.
美国的消费品和资本品的进口都增加了。有人猜测，特朗普总统在11月的当选，解放了商业伙伴的“动物精神”； 减税，放松监管，以及随后美国公司在国外的1万亿美元未税现金的回流，将推动商业投资的大幅增长。