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TURKEY matters not just for its size, but also as a bellwether of the political forces shaping the world. For centuries it was the seat of a great empire.Today, as a frontier state, it must cope with the violence spewing out of war-ravaged Syria; it is a test case of whether democracy can be reconciled with political Islam; and it must navigate between Western liberalism and the authoritarian nationalism epitomised by Russia. In recent years under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has gone backwards.This weekend it can begin to put that right.
土耳其之所以重要不仅源于它的国土面积，还因为它是塑造世界政治力量的领导者。长达几个世纪，那里曾是一个伟大帝国的所在。今天，作为一个前线国家，它必须应对战争蹂躏的叙利亚喷涌而出的暴力; 民主是否可以与政治伊斯兰教和谐共处正在那里接受检验；它还必须游走于西方自由主义和俄罗斯代表的专制民族主义之间。近年来，在雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安（Recep Tayyip Erdogan）的领导下，土耳其有所倒退。这个周末，它可以开始回到正轨。
On April 16th Turks will vote in a referendum over whether to abandon their parliamentary system for an executive presidency.A Yes is likely, but far from certain. There is nothing wrong with a strong president, but Turkey’s new constitution goes too far. The country would end up with a 21st-century sultan minimally curbed by parliament. A Yes would condemn Turkey to the elected dictatorship of President Erdogan. A No might just let Turks constrain him.
4月16日，土耳其将进行全民公投，决定是否为实权总统放弃议会制。公投可能会通过，但还不那么确定。强势总统没有错，但土耳其新宪法也过于离经叛道。结果是，这个国家会出现一位21世纪的苏丹, 议会只能最低限度地给他以约束。 如果选“是”，土耳其将面对埃尔多安总统当选为独裁者的困境。如果选“否”，可以让土耳其人对总统有所约束。
Authority figure 权威人物
After Mr Erdogan came to power in 2003, he and his AK party did a lot that was good. Encouraged by the IMF, he tamed inflation and ushered in economic growth. Encouraged by the EU,he tackled the cabal of military officers and bureaucrats in the “deep state”, strengthened civil liberties and talked peace with the Kurds. He also spoke up for working-class religious conservatives,who had been locked out of power for decades.
2003年，埃尔多安上台后，他和他的正义发展党干出了很多实绩。在国际货币基金组织的鼓励下，他制服了通货膨胀，迎来了经济增长。在欧盟的帮助下，他解决了“国中之国”军官和官僚机构的惊天阴谋，加强了公民自由，并与库尔德人展开和平对话。他也为工薪阶层的宗教保守派发声。几十年来这些人一直被拒之于权力大门之外。
But today Turkey is beset by problems. In the shadow of the Syrian civil war, jihadists and Kurdish militants are waging campaigns against the state. Last summer the army attempted a coup—probably organised by supporters of an American based cleric, Fethullah Gulen, who had penetrated the bureaucracy,judiciary and army in their tens of thousands. The economy, once a strength, is growing slowly, plagued by cronyism, poor management and a collapse in tourism.
但是今天土耳其备受各种麻烦困扰。在叙利亚内战的阴影下，圣战者和库尔德武装分子正在开展针对国家的战争。去年夏天，军队尝试军事政变。这可能是美国牧师法修拉‧葛伦（Fethullah Gulen）的支持者们组织的。数万人渗透到了官僚机构，司法部门和军队中。受困于任人唯亲，管理不善和旅游业的崩溃，一度强劲的经济增长开始放缓。
Mr Erdogan argues that, to put this right, Turkey needs a new constitution that will generate political stability. He says that only a strong president can galvanise the state and see off its enemies. Naturally, he is talking about himself.
埃尔多安辩称，为了走上正轨，土耳其需要一部新宪法来开创政治稳定的局面。他说，只有强势总统才能激励国家，战胜强敌。当然，他是在谈论自己。
The new constitution embodies the “illiberal democracy”of nationalists such as Viktor Orban of Hungary and Vladimir Putin of Russia, to whom Mr Erdogan is increasingly compared. On this view, election winners take all, constraints are obstacles to strong government and the ruling party has a right to subvert institutions, such as the judiciary and the press.
新宪法体现了匈牙利总理维克托·奥班（Viktor Orban）和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）等民族主义者倡导的“非自由的民主”。埃尔多安越来越多地被拿来和他们相提并论。在这种观点来看，胜选者赢得一切。约束是强势政府的障碍。执政党有权颠覆公共机构，比如司法机构和新闻界。
Yet this kind of stability is hollow. The most successful democracies make a point of separating powers and slowing governments down. The guiding idea of the American constitution is to stop presidents from acting as if they were monarchs, by building in checks and balances. Even the British prime minister, untrammelled by a written constitution, has to submit herself to the courts, a merciless press and a weeklygrilling in Parliament, broadcast live.
然而这种稳定是虚伪的。最成功的民主国家强调分权和约束政府。美国宪法的指导思想是通过建立检查和平衡机制，阻止总统像君王一样行事。即使是没有成文宪法约束的英国首相也必须接受法庭和无情媒体的管辖以及每周一次的议会质询，而且是现场直播。
Turkey is especially ill-suited to winner-takes-all government. It is divided between secular, religious and nationalist citizens, as well as Turks, Kurds, Alevis and a few remaining Greeks, Armenians and Jews. If the religious-conservative near-majority try to shut out everyone else, just as they were once shut out, Turkey will never be stable.
赢家通吃的政府尤其不适合土耳其。土耳其民众可以分为世俗的，宗教的和民族主义者；或者分为土耳其人，库尔德人，阿拉维人以及剩下为数不多的希腊人，亚美尼亚人和犹太人。如果宗教保守主义者多数派尝试将其他人拒之门外，就像他们自己曾经遭遇过的那样，土耳其将永无稳定可言。
But the most important argument against majoritarian politics is Mr Erdogan himself. Since the failed coup, he has been governing under a state of emergency that demonstrates how cruelly power can be abused.
但反对多数主义政治最重要的争议是埃尔多安本人。自未遂政变以来，国家一直处于紧急状态之下，他的统治表明滥用权力可以到何种残酷的程度。
The state is entitled to protect its citizens, especially in the face of political violence. But Mr Erdogan has gone far beyond what is reasonable. Roughly 50,000 people have been arrested;100,000 more have been sacked. Only a fraction of them were involved in the coup. Anyone Mr Erdogan sees as a threat is vulnerable: ordinary folk who went to a Gulenist school or saved with a Gulenist bank; academics, journalists and politicians who betray any sympathy for the Kurdish cause; anybody,including children, who mocks the president on social media. Whatever the result on April 16th, Mr Erdogan will remain in charge, free to use—and abuse—his emergency powers.
国家有权保护其公民，特别是面对政治暴力时。但埃尔多安的所作所为已经远超合理的范围。约有五万人被捕，十万人被撤职。其中只有一小部分人参与了政变。只要被埃尔多安视为威胁那人就要完蛋：比如那些去葛兰主义学校上学或在葛兰主义银行存钱的普通民众；那些对库尔德表示同情的学者，记者和政治家; 在社交媒体上嘲笑总统的任何人，包括儿童。无论4月16日公投结果如何，埃尔多安将继续执政，任意使用和滥用紧急状态赋予他的权力。
During the campaign he accused the Germans and Dutch of “Nazi practices” for stopping his ministers from pitching for expatriate votes. EU voices want to suspend accession talks—which, in any case, are moribund. Before long, the talk may even turn to sanctions. Some in the West will point to Turkey’s experience to claim that Islam and democracy cannot coexist.But to give up on that idea would be to give up on Turkey itself.
竞选期间，他指责德国和荷兰的“纳粹做法”，阻止他的部长们争取海外选票。欧盟有一些呼声要求停止入欧谈判。无论如何，这些谈判已濒临破裂。不久前，对话甚至可能转为制裁。西方有人指出土耳其的经验说明伊斯兰教和民主不能并存。但放弃这个想法就是放弃土耳其本身。
The fault is not so much with political Islam—many AK members and voters are uneasy with the new constitution. It is with Mr Erdogan and his inner circle. Although he is a religious man, he is better seen as an old-fashioned authoritarian than as a new-fangled Islamist. The distinction matters because AK, or an Islamist party like it, is bound to feature in Turkey’s democracy. Mr Erdogan, however, will one day leave the stage, taking his authoritarian instincts with him.
这个错误和政治伊斯兰教没多少关系。许多正义发展党成员和选民都对新宪法感到不安。对埃尔多安和他的核心集团也是如此。虽然他是宗教人士，但最好将他视为旧式独裁主义者，而不是新兴的伊斯兰教徒。这个区别很重要，因为正义发展党或类似的伊斯兰党注定是土耳其民主的特色。然而，埃尔多安总有一天会离开舞台，同时也带走他专制的本能。
Hold him close 紧握住他
Hence the outside world should not give up on Turkey, but be patient. Partly, this is self-interest. As a NATO member and a regional power, Turkey is too important to cut adrift. It will play a vital part in any peace in Syria. Driving it into Russia’s arms makes no sense. Turkey has also been a conduit for refugees into the EU as well as vital in controlling their inflow. The refugee situation is in flux: the EU will need to keep talking to Turkey about how to cope with the resulting instability.
所以外界不应该放弃土耳其，要有耐心。部分地，这是利己的考虑。作为北约成员和地区大国，土耳其太重要了以致不能让它放任自流。它将在叙利亚和平进程中发挥至关重要的作用。没有道理把它推向俄罗斯的怀抱。土耳其还是难民进入欧盟的通道，也是控制难民流入的枢纽。难民形势正在泛滥：欧盟需要继续与土耳其商讨如何应对由此引发的不稳定。
Engagement is also in Turkey’s interests. The EU is its biggest trading partner.Contact with it bolsters the Western-leaning Turks who are likely to be Mr Erdogan’s most potent opposition. NATO membership can moderate the next generation of officers in its armed forces. Although Turkey will not join the EU for many years, if ever, a looser EU, with several classes of member or associate country, might one day find room for it.
参与其中也符合土耳其的利益。欧盟是其最大的贸易伙伴。和欧盟保持接触将支撑那些亲西方的土耳其人，他们可能成为埃尔多安最有力的反对派。北约成员的资格可以节制土耳其下一代武装部队的军官。尽管土耳其很多年都无法加入欧盟，但如果有那么一天，一个更为宽松的欧盟，成员国或结盟国分等级的话，那时可能会为土耳其找到一席之地。
Turkey will remain pivotal after April 16th. If Mr Erdogan loses, Turkey will be a difficult ally with a difficult future. But if he wins, he will be able to govern as an elected dictator.
4月16日以后土耳其依然重要。如果埃尔多安失利，土耳其将是落难的盟友，未来磨难多多。但如果他赢了，他将能够作为当选独裁者来治理国家。