ai人工智能
Accountants and auditors get a bad reputation. For many, this view is based on the few introductory accounting classes they took in high school or college. While learning debits and credits isn't fun, the actual career is a little more complicated than that. Like many jobs, a career in accounting requires a combination of repetitive and creative tasks. Accountants follow routine checklists and procedures but also apply judgement to navigate different options, persuade clients to take a course of action, and build relationships stakeholders. In reality, senior-level auditors and accountants, including controllers and CFOs, actually work more like lawyers.
会计师和审计师的声誉不好。 对于许多人来说，这种观点是基于他们在高中或大学学习的入门级会计课程。 虽然学习借方和贷方并不是一件有趣的事，但实际的职业却比这复杂得多。 像许多工作一样，会计职业需要重复性和创造性的工作相结合。 会计师遵循常规的清单和程序，但也会运用判断力来导航不同的选项，说服客户采取行动，并建立关系干系人。 实际上，包括审计师和首席财务官在内的高级审计师和会计师实际上更像律师。
There is considerable uncertainty about how the accounting industry will be impacted by advancement in AI. Those who have a dystopian view of AI argue that most tasks can be automated, and accountants will become obsolete. In fact, in 2018, Forbes predicted that accounting tasks, including tax, payroll, audits, banking, etc., would be fully automated by 2020. The reality is that even now, years later, we are still nowhere near automation. In fact, there are several reasons why we may never be.
人工智能的发展将对会计行业产生怎样的影响存在很大的不确定性。 那些对人工智能有反乌托邦观点的人认为，大多数任务可以自动化， 会计也将过时 。 实际上，福布斯(Forbes)在2018年预测 ，到2020年，包括税收，工资，审计，银行业务等会计任务将实现完全自动化。现实是，即使是几年后的现在，我们仍然远远没有达到自动化。 实际上，有几个原因可能导致我们永远不会成为现实。
I argue that, in the short term, AI automation will enable accountants to be more efficient rather than replace them. AI will improve efficiencies of accountants at the employee, firm, and macro levels. In the long run, AI will not replace accountants due to powerful forces such as entrenched professional jurisdictions, cost/benefit tradeoffs of automation, and nature of the work itself. In this article, I will analyze the impact of AI on the accounting industry which will also serve as a framework for many other industries as well.
我认为，从短期来看，人工智能自动化将使会计师更加高效，而不是 更换它们。 人工智能将提高员工，公司和宏观层面的会计师效率。 从长远来看，由于强大的力量，如根深蒂固的专业管辖区，自动化的成本/收益权衡以及工作本身的性质，人工智能将不会取代会计师。 在本文中，我将分析AI对会计行业的影响，该行业还将成为许多其他行业的框架。
How AI will impact accountants at the employee level
人工智能将如何影响员工层面的会计师
All AI advancement to date has really been classified as Narrow AI — AI that can only solve specific tasks. In the near term, AI will automate certain repetitive tasks for accountants. Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is already automating several tasks such as exporting data, performing reconciliations, and identifying outliers for investigation, while tools such as Tableau, Power BI, and Beautiful.ai help accountants visualize and communicate information quicker and more clearly. Previously, these tasks cost companies thousands of labor hours to complete while simultaneously being unenjoyable for workers. In this domain, AI tools present a clear win-win for both parties involved.
迄今为止，所有AI的进步实际上都被归类为Narrow AI ，即只能解决特定任务的AI。 在短期内，人工智能将为会计师自动化某些重复性任务。 机器人流程自动化(RPA)已经使一些任务自动化，例如导出数据，执行对帐和识别异常以进行调查，而Tableau，Power BI和Beautiful.ai等工具可帮助会计师更快，更清晰地可视化和传达信息。 以前，这些任务使公司花费了数千个工时才能完成，而同时却使工人感到不愉快。 在这一领域，人工智能工具为相关各方带来了明显的双赢。
Powerful analytics tools will allow accountants to focus their attention to higher risk and complex transactions, ensuring that their efforts are placed where it is most needed. For example, consider an AI tool that can monitor sales transactions for a retailer and identify changes in patterns of customer returns. The system can develop expectations based on historical results and industry data and flag outliers to accountants, causing them to revisit how they account for allowance for customer returns (an important input in calculating revenues in retail companies).
强大的分析工具将使会计师能够将注意力集中在高风险和复杂的交易上，从而确保将他们的精力放在最需要的地方。 例如，考虑一个AI工具，该工具可以监视零售商的销售交易并识别客户退货方式的变化。 该系统可以根据历史结果和行业数据得出期望值，并向会计人员标记异常值，使会计人员重新考虑如何计算客户退货的准备金(这是计算零售公司收入的重要输入)。
The above examples illustrate two important takeaways about the short term. First, accountants will have to remain involved in each of these technologies, but AI will make things faster. Second, AI bots are not the magic bullet to solve all issues. Instead, these technologies only solve specific aspect of the job because significant time and expense are required to perfect the application of AI for each of these use cases.
上面的示例说明了有关短期的两个重要结论。 首先，会计师将不得不继续参与其中的每一项技术，但是人工智能将使事情变得更快 。 其次，人工智能机器人并不是解决所有问题的灵丹妙药。 相反，这些技术只能解决工作的特定方面，因为需要花费大量的时间和金钱来完善每个用例的AI应用。
When we consider the long-term impacts of AI, I believe a similar trend will continue. Accountants will have an arsenal of AI tools to free themselves from many repetitive tasks, shifting their attention to complex tasks such as building the AI models themselves (software engineers cannot build these on their own), client relationship building, and analyzing new types transactions.
当我们考虑到AI的长期影响时，我相信类似的趋势还将继续。 会计师将拥有大量的AI工具，可以将自己从许多重复的任务中解放出来，将注意力转移到复杂的任务上，例如自己构建AI模型(软件工程师不能自己构建这些模型)，建立客户关系以及分析新型交易。
The skills required to become a successful accountant will drastically change. Accountants will need to develop omniscience: an understanding of many different competencies including data science, computers and networking, a deeper understanding of their clients, and most of all, a stronger foundation of ethics and transparency — all things a computer may never replicate. With increased automation, accountants will have to make tough decisions on how to train models, how to apply analytics, and how to protect the interests of stakeholders.
成为一名成功的会计师所需的技能将发生巨大变化 。 会计师将需要发展全方位的科学知识 ：对许多不同能力的理解，包括数据科学，计算机和网络，对客户的更深刻理解以及最重要的是，更强的道德和透明度基础-计算机永远不可能复制的所有事物。 随着自动化程度的提高，会计师将不得不就如何训练模型，如何应用分析以及如何保护利益相关者的利益做出艰难的决定。
How AI will impact accounting organizations
人工智能将如何影响会计组织
Implementation of AI technologies will impact organizations in several ways in the short run. First, it will greatly improve the efficiency of hiring accounting talent. Large accounting firms will use AI screening tools by LinkedIn and Ziprecruiter to screen resumes and evaluate candidates through video interviews.
人工智能技术的实施将在短期内以多种方式影响组织。 首先，它将大大提高会计人才的招聘效率。 大型会计师事务所将使用LinkedIn和Ziprecruiter的 AI筛选工具来筛选简历，并通过视频采访评估候选人。
Second, AI tools will also be valuable in scaling teams to meet client demands through tools like flash teams, which is particularly valuable in the accounting industry where the work is seasonal, extremely busy during the winter year-end period and lighter during the summer period.
其次，人工智能工具在通过Flash团队等工具扩展团队以满足客户需求方面也将是有价值的，这在会计行业中特别有价值，因为会计行业的工作是季节性的，在冬季年末期间非常忙碌而在夏季期间则较轻。
Third, firms will execute extensive corporate training programs to upskill workers with leading-edge technologies and AI-based risk assessment tools. Firms will continue to explore new avenues to improve the effectiveness of training programs through partnerships with MOOCs and other third-party upskilling programs. As an unfortunate result of this, workers who do not keep up may be let go if they cannot retrain appropriately.
第三，企业将执行广泛的企业培训计划，以利用领先的技术和基于AI的风险评估工具提高工人的技能。 通过与MOOC和其他第三方技能提升计划的合作，公司将继续探索新途径来提高培训计划的有效性。 因此，不幸的是，如果工人不能跟上工作进度，则他们将不能放任自流。
Each of the cases above illustrates meaningful changes to accounting organizations around the world. It is important to note however, these tools still require humans to remain in the loop and are still enabling technologies rather than replacing technologies in the short term.
上面的每种情况都说明了全球会计机构的有意义的变化。 但是，需要特别注意的是，这些工具仍然需要人员参与其中，并且仍在启用技术，而不是在短期内替代技术。
In the long run AI will radically change how accounting firms scale and grow teams. Flash teams may become even more of an integral part of the firm, blurring the boundaries of firms and third parties such as SMEs. For example, if working with a mining company, accountants may need detailed evaluations of prospective sites along with the associated projections in order to properly value the assets on the books. These reports are sometimes provided by third-party firms with deeper expertise in particular topics. Flash teams can help streamline this process and reduce the cost of hiring individuals as well.
从长远来看，人工智能将从根本上改变会计公司扩展和发展团队的方式。 Flash团队可能甚至成为公司不可或缺的一部分，从而模糊了公司和中小企业等第三方的界限。 例如，如果与矿业公司合作，会计人员可能需要对潜在地点进行详细评估以及相关的预测，以便正确地对账簿上的资产进行估值。 这些报告有时由第三方公司提供，它们在特定主题上具有更深的专业知识。 Flash团队可以帮助简化此过程并减少雇用人员的成本。
Additionally, in the long term, organizations will resemble adhocracies rather than bureaucracies. Accounting firms are currently structured with well-defined layers of employees and follow a strict bureaucratic protocol. Once workers are free from repetitive tasks, they will be expected to take on greater ownership of client relationships and opine on strategic issues for clients and firms at an earlier point in their career. Therefore, it is inevitable that accounting firms will have to steer away from the strict bureaucracies that currently exist and adopt an adhocracy approach. This will likely mean that the number of layers of advancement will be greatly reduced and the pathway to partnership at these firms may be quicker.
此外，从长远来看，组织将类似于专制而非官僚。 目前，会计师事务所的结构是由员工定义明确的，并遵循严格的官僚协议。 一旦工人摆脱了重复性的工作，他们将在其职业生涯的较早阶段承担起与客户关系的更多所有权，并为客户和公司解决战略问题。 因此，不可避免的是，会计师事务所将不得不摆脱目前存在的严格官僚机构，并采取专制的态度。 这很可能意味着晋升的层数将大大减少，并且这些公司建立伙伴关系的途径可能会更快。
How AI will impact the accounting industry at a macro level
人工智能将如何从宏观层面影响会计行业
At the macro level, AI is limited by several powerful forces that will prevent it from replacing workers. First, AI automation will be bounded due to the extensive power of accounting professional jurisdictions. In North America, the CPA association and its members have powerful lobbying bodies with close ties to regulatory agencies such as the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) and Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). In fact, many have observed the revolving door of regulators moving to accounting firms and vice versa, potentially reducing the independence between firms and regulators (a separate topic altogether). With respect to AI adoption, it is safe to say that even if AI could replace accountants, such developments will be met with tough regulatory scrutiny and backlash due to the power of these professional jurisdictions.
在宏观层面上，人工智能受到多种强大力量的限制，这将阻止人工智能替代工人。 首先，由于会计专业管辖区的强大功能，人工智能自动化将受到限制。 在北美，CPA协会及其成员拥有强大的游说机构，与诸如公共公司会计监督委员会(PCAOB)和证券交易委员会(SEC)等监管机构紧密联系。 实际上，许多人已经观察到监管机构向会计公司转移的反动之门 ，反之亦然，这有可能降低公司与监管者之间的独立性(完全是一个单独的主题)。 关于AI的采用，可以肯定地说，即使AI可以取代会计师，由于这些专业辖区的力量，这种发展也将受到严格的监管审查和强烈反对。
Second, there is an absence of data about how accountants divide their time between repetitive tasks and creative tasks. From my personal experience, much of my job required obtaining client data, cleaning and processing it, and supporting transactions using evidence and analytics. While some aspects could be automated, most required me to exercise professional judgement and knowledge of my client’s business. These insights could not be gained through rote data analysis and required interfacing with several stakeholders to understand processes and biases in the flow of transactions throughout the organization.
其次，缺乏有关会计师如何在重复性任务和创造性任务之间分配时间的数据。 根据我的个人经验，我的大部分工作需要获取客户数据，对其进行清理和处理，并使用证据和分析来支持交易。 尽管某些方面可以实现自动化，但大多数方面都需要我对客户的业务进行专业判断和了解。 这些见解无法通过死记硬背的数据分析获得，需要与多个利益相关者进行交互以了解整个组织中交易流程和流程的偏差。
Third, with a starting salary of $45,000-$60,000 for entry-level roles, it could be the case that accounting labor is too cheap to automate for firms. Further, starting salaries for entry-level accounting roles in the Big 4 firms have experienced little growth over the past 10 years. As AI enables more and more of the tasks of accountants, I suspect that wages will remain flat or experience downward pressure in the future.
第三，入门级职位的起薪为$ 45,000- $ 60,000 ，这可能是会计工作成本太低而无法使公司实现自动化的情况。 此外，在过去10年中，四大公司入门级会计职位的起薪几乎没有增长。 随着人工智能实现越来越多的会计任务，我怀疑未来工资将保持不变或承受下行压力。
I believe these trends will continue to persist in the long term. It is unlikely that AI will achieve the ability to fully replace accountants, and instead will remain narrow and enable them to work more effectively.
我相信这些趋势将长期持续下去。 人工智能不太可能实现完全取代会计的能力，反而会保持狭窄并使其更有效地工作。
Conclusion
结论
In the short term, it is clear that AI has been and will continue to be an enabling technology rather than a replacing technology. Narrow AI will improve worker efficiency and free up time for creative tasks and client relationship building. At the organization level, firms will undertake massive upskilling programs and fundamentally change the way they hire talent.
从短期来看，很明显，人工智能已经并将继续成为一种使能技术，而不是替代技术。 狭窄的AI将提高工作人员的效率，并腾出时间进行创造性的任务和建立客户关系。 在组织层面，公司将进行大规模的技能提升计划，并从根本上改变他们雇用人才的方式。
In the long run, employees will have to significantly shift their mix of skills before entering the workforce. Omniscience and ethics will be a stronger requirement for jobs in this industry. Organizations will radically shift their hierarchies and resemble adhocracies where workers are empowered to take on greater stakes in strategic decisions. At the macro level, AI will fail to replace accountants due to powerful professional jurisdictions and important cost-benefit tradeoffs between developing AI and hiring people. Each of these presents important bounds to the limits of automation.
从长远来看，员工在进入劳动力市场之前将不得不大幅改变其技能组合。 Omniscience和道德将成为该行业对工作的更强要求。 组织将从根本上改变其层次结构，并类似于专制，在这种专职下，员工有权在战略决策中承担更大的责任。 在宏观层面上，由于强大的专业管辖区以及发展中的AI与雇用人员之间重要的成本收益权衡，AI将无法取代会计师。 这些中的每一个都代表了自动化限制的重要界限。
翻译自: https://towardsdatascience.com/ai-might-not-be-after-your-job-after-all-f126b80bdf39
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