Europe faces an enduring crisis of energy and geopolitics
This will weaken it and threaten its global position
欧洲面临着一场持久的能源和地缘政治危机
这将削弱它并威胁到它的全球地位
If you ask Europe’s friends around the world what
they think of the old continent’s prospects they often respond with two
emotions. One is admiration. In the struggle to help Ukraine and resist Russian
aggression, Europe has displayed unity, grit and a principled willingness to bear
enormous costs. But the second is alarm. A brutal economic squeeze will pose a test
of Europe’s resilience in 2023 and
beyond. There is a growing fear that the recasting of the global energy system, American
economic populism and geopolitical rifts threaten thelong-run competitiveness of the European Union and non-members, includingBritain. It is not just the continent’s prosperity that is at risk, the healthof the transatlantic alliance is, too.
如果你问欧洲在世界各地的朋友，他们如何看待这个古老大陆的前景，他们的回答通常有两种情绪。一个是钦佩。在帮助乌克兰和抵抗俄罗斯侵略的斗争中，欧洲表现出了团结、勇气和承担巨大代价的原则性意愿。但第二个是恐慌。残酷的经济紧缩将在2023年及以后考验欧洲的韧性。人们越来越担心，全球能源体系的重塑、美国的经济民粹主义和地缘政治分歧会威胁到欧盟和包括英国在内的非欧盟成员国的长期竞争力。不仅欧洲大陆的繁荣受到威胁，跨大西洋联盟的健康也受到威胁。
Don’t be fooled by the rush of good news from Europe in the past few
weeks. Energy prices are down from the summer and a run of good weather means that gas storage is
nearly full. But the energy crisis still poses dangers. Gas prices are six
times higher than their long-run average. On November 22nd Russia threatened tothrottle the lastoperational pipeline to Europe, even as missile attacks caused emergency powercuts across Ukraine. Europe’s gas storage will need to be refilled once againin 2023, this time without any piped Russian gas whatsoever.
不要被过去几周从欧洲传来的一连串好消息所迷惑。能源价格从夏季开始下降，而连续的好天气意味着天然气储备接近饱和。但能源危机仍然是个危险。天然气价格是长期平均价格的六倍。11月22日，俄罗斯威胁要切断通往欧洲的最后一条输油管，尽管导弹袭击导致乌克兰全境紧急断电。到2023年，欧洲的天然气储藏库将需要再次补充，这一次没有任何来自俄罗斯的管道天然气。
Vladimir Putin’s energy weapon will exact a toll beyond Ukraine.
Our modelling suggests that, in a normal winter, a 10% rise in real energy
prices is associated with a 0.6% increase in deaths. Hence the energy crunch this yearcould cause over
100,000 extra deaths of elderly people across Europe. If so, MrPutin’s energy weapon could take more lives outside Ukraine than his artillery, missiles and drones do directly within it. That is one more reason why Ukraine’s resistance to Russia is Europe’s fight, too.
弗拉基米尔•普京的能源武器所造成的损失将超过乌克兰。我们的模型表明，在一个正常的冬天，实际能源价格上涨10%，死亡人数就会增加0.6%。因此，今年的能源短缺可能会导致整个欧洲有超过10万名老年人额外死亡。从这角度看，普京先生的能源武器在乌克兰境外造成的死亡人数可能比他的大炮、导弹和无人机在乌克兰境内直接造成的死亡人数还要多。这就是为什么乌克兰对俄罗斯的抵抗也是欧洲的战斗的另一个原因。
The war is also creating financial vulnerabilities. Energy inflation
is spilling over into the rest
of Europe’s economy, creating an acute dilemma for the European Central Bank. It needs to raise
interest rates to control prices. But if it goes too farit could
destabilise the euro zone’s weaker members, not least indebted Italy.
这场战争也在造成金融方面的脆弱性。能源通胀正在蔓延到欧洲其它经济领域，令欧洲中央银行陷入严重的两难局面。它需要提高利率以控制物价。但如果它用力过猛，可能会破坏欧元区较弱成员的稳定，尤其是负债累累的意大利。
Even as the energy crisis rages, the war has exposed a vulnerability inEurope’s business model. Too many of Europe’s industrial firms, especiallyGerman ones, have relied on abundant energy inputs from Russia. Plenty ofcompanies have also become more dependent on another autocracy, China,as an end market.The prospect of severed relations with Russia, structurally higher costs and adecoupling of the West and China has meant areckoning in many boardrooms.
正在能源危机肆虐之际，这场战争也暴露出欧洲商业模式的一个弱点。太多的欧洲工业企业，尤其是德国企业，依赖俄罗斯丰富的能源输入。许多公司也变得更加依赖另一个专制国家，秦国，作为终端市场。与俄罗斯断绝关系的前景、结构性的高成本以及西方与秦国的脱钩，意味着许多公司的董事会要进行破产清算。
That fear has been amplified by America’s economic nationalism which
threatens to draw activity across the Atlantic in a whirlwind of subsidies and
protectionism. President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act involves $400bn of
handouts for energy, manufacturing and transport and includes make-in-America
provisions. In many ways the scheme resembles the industrial policies that China haspursued for decades. As the other two pillars of the world economy become moreinterventionist and protectionist, Europe, with its quaint insistence onupholding World Trade Organisation rules on free trade, looks like a sucker.
这种担忧被美国的经济民族主义放大了，后者可能会在补贴和保护主义的旋风中吸引大西洋彼岸的蠢蠢欲动。美国总统乔•拜登的《通货膨胀削减法案》涉及4000亿美元的能源、制造业和运输业补贴，其中包括“美国制造”条款。在许多方面，该计划与中国几十年来推行的产业政策相似。随着世界经济的另两大支柱倾向更加干涉主义和保护主义，坚持维护世界贸易组织自由贸易规则的欧洲看起来就像个傻瓜。
Already, companies are reacting to the subsidies.
Northvolt, a prized Swedish battery startup, has said that it
wants to expand production in America. Iberdrola, a Spanish energy company, is
investing twice as much in America as in the European Union. Many bosses warn
that the combination of expensive energy and American subsidies leaves Europe
at risk of mass deindustrialisation. BASF, a German chemicals giant, recently unveiled plans toshrink its European operations “permanently”. It does not help that Europe isageing faster than America, too.
企业们已经开始对补贴做出反应。瑞典备受赞誉的电池初创企业诺伏(Northvolt)表示，希望扩大在美国的产能。西班牙能源公司Iberdrola在美国的投资是在欧盟的两倍。许多企业老板警告说，昂贵的能源加上美国的补贴，使欧洲面临大规模去工业化的风险。德国化工巨头巴斯夫(BASF)最近公布了“永久性”缩减其欧洲业务的计划。欧洲人口老龄化速度也比美国快，这也于事无补。
Losing investment makes Europe poorer and feeds into a sense
of declining
economic vigour. Compared with its pre-covid GDP trajectory, Europe has done
worse than any other economic bloc. Of the world’s 100 most valuable firms,
only 14 are European. Politicians will be tempted to chuck out the rule book and respond with
subsidies of their own in an escalating arms race of corporate goodies. Germany’s economy
minister has accused America of “hoovering up investments”. President Emmanuel Macron of France hascalled for “a European wake-up”.
失去投资使欧洲更加贫穷，加剧了经济活力下降的感觉。与新冠疫情前的gdp轨迹相比，欧洲的表现比任何其他经济集团都要糟糕。在全球100家最有价值的公司中，只有14家是欧洲公司。政客们很可能会抛弃规则，以各自的补贴作为回应，展开一场不断升级的企业利益军备竞赛。德国经济部长指责美国“豪抢投资”。法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙呼吁“欧洲觉醒”。
Thus the subsidy row is also feeding tensions between America and Europe. America’s
financial and military support for Ukraine vastly exceeds Europe’s, and as it pivots to Asia to meet
the challenge from China, America resents the EU’s failure to pay for its ownsecurity. Most members of NATO have failed to meet the goal of spending 2%of GDP on defence. The EU was staggeringly naive about Russianaggression. Although the war caused America and Europe to unite after theruptures of the Trump years, the danger is that a long conflict and economictensions will gradually pull them apart again. Mr Putin and China, would lovethat.
因此，补贴之争也加剧了美国和欧洲之间的紧张关系。美国对乌克兰的财政和军事支持远远超过了欧洲，随着美国转向亚洲应对来自中国的挑战，美国对欧盟未能为自己的安全买单感到不满。大多数北约成员国都未能实现将GDP的2%用于国防的目标。对于俄罗斯的侵略，欧盟天真得惊人。尽管这场战争使美国和欧洲在特朗普时代的破裂之后团结起来，但危险在于，长期的冲突和经济紧张将逐渐使它们再次分裂。普京和秦国会乐见其成。
To avoid a dangerous rift, America must see the bigger picture. Mr
Biden’s protectionism threatens to drain Europe of vitality even as America props up Ukraine’s army,
and armadas of tankers cross the Atlantic to supply Europe’s energy. The chief
aim of Bidenomics is to stop China dominating key industries: America has no
strategic interest in siphoning European investment. It should make European firms eligible forits energysubsidies, and integrate transatlantic energy markets more deeply.
为了避免危险的裂痕，美国必须站在更高的格局。拜登先生的保护主义有可能耗尽欧洲的活力，即使是在美国支持乌克兰军队、大批油轮穿越大西洋为欧洲供应能源的时候。拜登经济学的主要目的是阻止中国主导关键行业：虹吸欧洲投资并不符合美国的战略利益。它应该让欧洲公司有资格获得其能源补贴，并更深入地整合跨大西洋能源市场。
Europe, meanwhile, needs to protect its economy againstthe energy squeeze. Schemes that rightly aim to subsidise consumers and firmsfor their basic energy needs should curb demand by charging higher prices atthe margin, as inGermany.To lower long-run energy prices Europe should accelerate the renewablesrevolution, while keeping energy markets open to competition. It also needs toadapt to a new security reality. That means spending more on defence so that itcan take up the burden as Americashifts its gaze towards Asia.
与此同时，欧洲需要保护其经济免受能源短缺的影响。那些旨在补贴消费者和企业基本能源需求的计划，应该像德国那样，通过提高边际价格来抑制需求。为了降低长期能源价格，欧洲应该加速可再生能源革命，同时保持能源市场的开放竞争。它还需要适应新的安全现实。这意味着在国防上投入更多，以便在美国将目光转向亚洲时能够承担起负担。
Besides admiration and alarm, the other emotion governing
transatlantic relations is frustration. America is irritated by Europe’s
economic torpor and its failure todefend itself; Europe is outraged by America’s economic populism. But just asEurope must not be divided by the war, so it is vital that the most powerfuldemocratic alliance in history adapts—and endures.
除了钦佩和惊恐，支配大西洋两岸关系的另一种情绪是沮丧。美国对欧洲经济的疲软和未能自卫感到恼火；欧洲则被美国的经济民粹主义激怒。但正如欧洲不能因战争而分裂一样，有史以来最强大的民主联盟适应并经受住考验。