股市回调时，我们是该抛售还是买入？
亿万价值投资100人系列本次带来沃伦巴菲特2008年10月16日在《纽约时报》上发表的文章《Buy American. I AM.》。
由于次贷危机，美国道琼斯工业指数在半年内迅速从14279（2007年10月11日）点暴跌至6440点（2009年3月9日），跌幅高达54.9%，美国股市迎来一片萧条，但此后美股股市迎来最长牛市，巴菲特在本文提到了经典的“在别人恐惧时贪婪，在别人贪婪时恐惧”投资理念，同时通过这一时期的“抄底”成就投资传奇。
2021年初A股大幅回调，亿万在此重新翻译本文，助投资者重新审视我们的投资决策，对比中美经济发展的相似与不同，联系中国经济未来，再看A股的回调与潜在的投资机会（后附英文全文）：
买入美国正当时
作者：沃伦 ·巴菲特
2008年10月16日
美国乃至海外的金融世界都呈现出一片混乱的景象。 这种现象正在导致经济下滑，这种下滑就像喷射的油井一样势不可挡。短期之内失业率将会攀升，商业活动将会变得步履蹒跚，新闻报道将会带来持续恐慌。
所以买入美国股票正当时。这是我自己的私人账户，我的账户里只购买了美国国债。（这并不包括我持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股份，这些股份是用来致力于慈善事业。） 但如果股票价格一直吸引着投资者，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司将会投入100%来投资美国股票。
为什么？
我的投资遵循一个简单的规则：在别人恐惧时贪婪，在别人贪婪时恐惧。可以肯定的是，恐惧正在蔓延，即使是经验丰富的投资者也会有所感受 。可以肯定的是投资对高杠杆或在竞争中处于弱势地位的企业保持警惕是正确的。但这种警惕感对于体制健全，具有长期发展前景的企业来说是没有意义的。虽然这些企业通常会在盈利方面存在各种问题。但是绝大多数公司在5、10、20年后都会打破盈利记录。
有一点我很确定的是，我无法预测股市短期的走势。我也不知道股票在一个月或一年内是涨还是跌。但有一点我确定的是，当股市市场情绪上涨，或经济走势趋于向上，市场将会大幅走高。如果你一直在等知更鸟的话，春天很有可能已经结束了。
在这里我们回顾一下历史：在经济大萧条时期，道琼斯指数在1932年7月8日跌至41点的低点。然而，经济状况一直在恶化，直到1933年3月富兰克林·d·罗斯福（Franklin D. Roosevelt）就职才有所好转，到那时，股市已经上涨了30%。在第二次世界大战的早期，当时美国在欧洲和太平洋地区的战况很糟糕。1942年4月，市场已在谷底，远早于其他同盟国家。同样，在上世纪80年代初，购买股票的时机正值通货膨胀加剧、经济陷入困境。简单来讲，坏消息是投资者最好的朋友，它可以让你以低价购买美国未来的一部分。
从长期看来，股市一直在趋于向好。在20世纪，美国经历了两次世界大战带来的创伤和为昂贵军事冲突买单、经济大萧条、十几次的经济衰退和金融恐慌、石油危机、流感疫情和一位遭受异议并弹劾的总统。然而道琼斯指数从66点涨到了11479点。
你可能会理所当然的认为，在这个大好经济上涨的时代，投资者是不可能亏钱的。但一些投资者却亏钱了，倒霉的人只会在感到开心的时候买入股票，然后在新闻让他们感到不舒服的时候抛售股票。
现如今，持有大量现金的人会感到很舒适。他们却错了，长期来看这一种非常糟糕的长期资产。这不仅没有任何回报，并且面临资产肯定会贬值的风险。事实上，政府很可能为应对当前危机采取政策导致通货膨胀，因此刺激经济增长导致现金实际价值下降。
在未来十年，股票的表现以及带来的收益肯定且远远超越现金价值。那些仅仅握着现金不放的投资者，是在押注用手里的现金在适当的时候换取收益。他们在安于等待好消息的同时，却忽略了韦恩·格雷茨基（Wayne Gretzky）的建议:“我滑向冰球将至的地方，而不是它已经到达的地方。”
我不喜欢谈论对股票的看法，再一次申明我无法预测股市在短期内的表现。尽管如此，我还是会模仿空荡荡银行大楼里餐厅的广告词“言之必行（Put your mouth where your money was）”，今天我的言行与钱都将付之于股票上。
Buy American.I am
BY Warren E. Buffett
Published: October 16, 2008
THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
So ... I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account Im talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
Why?
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I cant predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I havent the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investors best friend. It lets you buy a slice of Americas future at a marked-down price.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldnt. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzkys advice: "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."
I dont like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, Ill follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: "Put your mouth where your money was." Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
（翻译：姚凯乾/编辑：花木深）