[Economist] 城市交通：出轨（上）

Urban transport：Off the rails

城市交通：出轨

TO THOSE who have to squeeze onto the number 25 bus in London, or the A train in NewYork, the change might not be noticeable. But public transport is becoming less busy in those cities, and in others besides. Passenger numbers are flat or falling in almost every American metropolis, and in some Canadian and European ones, too. That is despite healthy growth in urban populations and employment. Nose-to-armpit travellers may be even more surprised to hear that the emptying of public transport is a problem.

对那些需要挤进伦敦的 25 路巴士或者纽约地铁的而言，这些变化或许并不明显。但这些城市以及附近的那些城市的公共交通正在变得不再那么繁忙。几乎在美国的所有大都会城市，公共交通的乘客人数开始减少，一些加拿大和欧洲的城市也出现了类似的情形。这些无关于城市化人口的健康增长和就业率。旅客听到公共交通人数减少的现象成为问题或许会感到更加惊讶。

Although transport agencies blame their unpopularity on things like roadworks and broken signals, it seems more likely that they are being out competed (see International section). App-based taxi services like Uber and Lyft are more comfortable and convenient than trains or buses. Cycling is nicer than it was, and rental bikes are more widely available. Cars are cheap to buy, thanks to cut-rate loans, and evercheaper to run. Online shopping, home working and office-sharing mean more people can avoid travelling altogether.

尽管运输公司将这种不受欢迎的现象归罪于诸如道路维修和坏掉的信号灯，但看起来更大的可能性在于这些公司缺乏竞争力。基于 APP 的出租车服务诸如 Uber 和 Lyft 比地铁和巴士更加舒适和方便。骑行比想象中更加方便，租赁自行车服务的提供范围也更加广泛。由于减价销售，汽车变得便宜，使用起来更加便宜。网购，在家办公以及共享办公室使得人们可以避免出行。

The competition is only likely to grow. More than one laboratory is churning out new transport technologies and applications (see Business section). Silicon Valley invented Uber and, more recently, apps that let people rent electric scooters and then abandon them on the pavement. China created dockless bicycles and battery-powered “e-bikes”, both of which are spreading. Some inventions will fail, or will be regulated out of existence (at one point, Segways were the future). But new ideas, including driverless taxis, are coming around the corner. Mass transport is much less nimble. As NewYork’s Second Avenue subway, London’s Crossrail and Amsterdam’s NorthSouth metro line have shown, building new train lines is now incredibly complicated and expensive.

竞争只会加剧。不止一个实验室正在源源不断地开发出新的运输科技以及应用。硅谷开发出了 Uber ，最近的 APP 可以让用户租借电动摩托，使用完毕后可以随意停放在人行道上。中国创造了共享自行车以及使用电池的“电动自行车”，这些都在不断推广使用。某些发明会失败或者在监管下最终无法生存。但是新的创新，包括无人驾驶出租车即将到来。大规模交通就显得没有那么便捷。正如纽约第二大道地铁、伦敦横贯城铁以及阿姆斯特丹的南北地铁线所展现的那样，建造新的地铁越来越复杂和昂贵。