Argument 4 道10篇

4.The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

首先,作者说F公司有25名员工,并且他们中很多人是兼职,而A公司有40名员工。这并不能说明A公司比F公司好,因为虽然F公司少,而且很多事兼职,但很有可能这些员工都很有工作经验,对市场很了解,并且工作效率高。A公司的员工虽然多,但并不能说明他一定会比F公司效率高。

第二,作者提到A公司卖的房子的平均价格比F公司的高,这并不能说明什么问题.因为他们卖的房子的类型可能不一样,A公司可能主要卖中型、大型商品房,而F公司主要销售小户型商品房,这样A公司卖的房子的 平均价格自然要比F公司高了。

第三,作者用自己的经验说明A公司卖房子要比F公司快,这并不能说明A公司销售房子的能力比F公司高,因为作者的两处房产是不一样的,可能一间好一些,另一间差一些,房子的价格取决于市场供求,房子的结构,年龄,地段等。

最后,即便A公司的销售能力比F公司的要好,但那也是10年前的事情了,不能代表现在的A公司和F公司。因为随着时间的变化,两家公司都会产生很大的变化,即便是现在A公司销售能力比F公司销售能力好,这也只能说明他们在销售两类房子的能力不同,并不能代表两家在其它方面的销售能力。

总的来说,作者不能有力的证明A公司一定比F公司买房子的能力强,因为作者分析中引用的例证并不能很好的支持作者的声明。为了使本辩论更有说服力,作者必须给出更多的关于两家公司员工方面的信息。还有,作者要证明A公司在买那些类型的房子一定比F公司强。因此只有当作者提到以上考虑的因素时,才会显得周到,并且在逻辑上是可接受的。

 

5.The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."

A、作者所有的推理都是基于一开始建立的假设上,作者并没有给出有利证据说明未来关节炎患者一定会从40milillion长到60million,如果假设不成立,那么作者后面所有的推理都是不成立的。

B、即使假设成立,BP公司也不一定抓住最高利润。因为根据经济学常识,利润等于销售额减去成本,如果BP公司有很高的研发成本、成产成本、销售成本等,即使他的销售额很好,也不一定会盈利,甚至会亏本。

C、作者提到未来3年,Xenon的专利即将过期,但这并不能说明BP公司的利润一定会下降,因为即便是其它公司可以生产其药物,其成本和销售价格不一定比BP的低,而且患者已经习惯买该公司的药物了。同时BP公司一定会投入研发新的治疗关节炎的药物,很有可能BP公司研发出更加有效的药物来,这样BP公司会有更多的利润。

D、对于P公司生产Xyla药物,临床研究的数量太少,只有10个病例,而且这十个人都是严重的关节炎患者,样本不具有代表性,即使X药物对重症患者要比Xenon有效,这也仅仅是对重症患者,大部分患者并不是重症患者。

D、作者并没有提到其它药物公司,这是一个科技高速发展的时期,很有可能未来几年内会出现新的公司和新的技术,而BP公司和P公司被其它公司所取代并不是没有可能的。

 

6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

首先,作者给出的全国范围的调查样本是否足够随机,数量是否足够多,否则该调查结构不具有代表性,那么作者也不能给出人均在爵士娱乐上花费¥1000。

第二,即便该调查具有足够的随机性randomness,数量也足够多,具有代表性,那也只能说明全国范围的平均水平,有可能Monroe地区的居民花在爵士娱乐上每年不足$1000。正如作者也提到的当地人们喜欢“爵士之夜”广播节目,因此该地区的居民更可能喜欢收听免费的广播,而不是去爵士俱乐部等地方去消费。

第三,即使Monroe地区的居民年均花费$1000在爵士娱乐上,但居民不一定去M地区的C Note俱乐部消费。目前的俱乐部虽然比较远,但并不代表人们不会去。可能该俱乐部环境比较好,爵士音乐纯正,人们喜欢去那里。

第四,有名的爵士音乐人居住在M地区,去年有超过10万人参加了M地区的爵士音乐节,并不能说明当地的居民很喜欢爵士音乐,很有可能M地区的生活环境比较舒适,人们喜欢居住在M地区,人们去参加音乐节很有可能是很来来自很远的地方的人来参加,或是人们只是想看看明星。

最后,即便人们回来C Note,并不能保证他们一定会盈利,因为利润等于收入减去成本,作者忽略了成本中一个很大并且很重要的成本--品牌成本,在C Note成立之初,需要大笔的资金进行品牌宣传,很有可能俱乐部在收回成本之前已经破产了。

7.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.

"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."

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