Rules for Investing in the Next Bull Market
这是一个新的牛市吗？没人知道确切答案。但牛市总是会在某个合适的时候到来的。投资者还会重演同一个错误吗，还是会变得更明智？下面是应对下一次牛市的12条法则，不管它什么时候到来。1走向全球。大多数投资者喜欢坚守本地市场。这是个错误。美国经济只占了全球经济总量的五分之一，但却拥有全球股票市值的三分之一。没人知道最好或最坏的回报会在哪里，所以你需要广泛分散投资。而且因为你在美国生活工作和拥有房屋，你对美国经济的敞口已经过度。2规避大举行动。如果你一次性大举买进或卖出，那你就是在冒不必要的风险。等待正确时刻一举出击是徒劳的。不管怎样，你也不可能准确把握股市的波峰或谷底，如果市场趋势还有很长的路要走，那有什么必要急于行事？如果不是这样的话，那又有什么可操之过急的？3记住市场是个群体行动。所有人都在买进的时候，股市自然就会飙升；大家都在抛售的时候，股市就会下跌。这就是原因。当所有人都在努力预测市场的时候，他们实际上只是在追逐镜厅中自己的倒影罢了。4别犯傻，别紧张，别自己吓唬自己。华尔街充斥着一帮搞不清楚过去（这些股票已经上涨）现在（这些股票正在走高）或将来（这些股票将上扬）的家伙。你可别被骗了。5别理会那些“别无选择”。迟早都会有人督促你买股票，即便是在非常高的价位上，因为“别无选择”。这是股市在波峰时的常见骗术。事实上，我们总会有其他选择──比如说，持有更多现金直至股票估值更加诱人。6切实实现多样化。这意味着广泛投资多个不同的资产类型和策略。正如投资者去年所发现的，“大型价值型基金”和“中型平衡型基金”并不能带来多样化。它们不过是营销伎俩罢了。7别把预测太当回事。大多数经济学家都没有预见到经济衰退，大部分策略师都没有想到股市崩盘；就在股票下跌之前，大多数分析师还是都持看涨观点。即便是出色的专家也会屈从于群体意识办公室政治职业风险──以及镜厅综合症（参见第三条）。8绝不投资你不了解的东西。如果在牛市中业绩弱于大盘，也要保持好心态。在上次股市热潮中，很多投资者都被建议将资金全部投入股市以获得最大的长期收益。但股市有着无尽的风险承受度和无穷的时间期限。凡人不可能和市场指数竞争，也不该尝试。9别管大家在作什么。从众行为和害怕落单是很正常的。但投资时不能屈从这些本能，你要做有利于你和你家人的事情。10保持耐心。投资机遇就像巴士。如果你错过一辆，也没有必要去追。放松点。如果历史可以提供指引，其他机会总会接踵而来。11不要完全坐等机会白白流逝。你最后可能会在最后一刻大肆挥霍。如果你害怕进行投资，那就提前下手，细水长流。12最重要的：价格为上。毕竟，投资是对未来现金流的索赔，无论是公司的利润，债券的票面利率或是年金的收入流。一家具有偿付能力的公司，如果股价能降一半，那么股票的吸引力就会增加一倍；反之亦然。很奇怪有那么多的人会引导以另外一种思维进行投资。我想听听读者们的意见：如果你们有什么自己的锦囊妙计，不妨让我知道。Brett Arends（编者按：本文作者Brett Arends是《华尔街日报》网络版专栏作家，他的专栏《投资回报》帮助投资者分析最新时事并做出相应投资决定。）相关阅读集体决策如何误入歧途 2009-04-29美国股市“恐慌性上扬”前景如何？ 2009-04-27远离银行股的十个理由 2009-04-24考量股市涨跌之外的第三种思维 2009-04-24基因决定投资风格？ 2009-04-06
Is this a new bull market? Nobody really knows for certain. But one will -- presumably -- come along in due course. Will investors make the same mistakes they made last time, or will they be wiser? Here are 12 rules for the next bull market -- whenever it turns up.1. Go global.Most investors prefer to stick to their 'home' market. It's a mistake. America accounts for only a fifth of the world economy but a third of its share values. No one knows where the best or worst returns will be, so spread your bets across the board. And you already have an oversized bet on the U.S. economy:, because you likely live, work and own a home here.2. Avoid big moves.If you buy or sell heavily in one shot you're taking a needless risk. And waiting for the right moment to make your move is futile. You probably won't catch the bottom or the peak anyway. If a market trend has much further to run, then what's the rush? And if it doesn't … what's the rush?3. Remember the market is just 'us.'No wonder shares rose when everyone was buying, and fell when they were selling. That was the reason. And when everyone is trying to predict 'the market,' they are effectively chasing themselves through a hall of mirrors.4. Don't get fooled, don't get tense… and don't get fooled by the wrong tense.Wall Street is riddled with people who mistake the past perfect ('these shares have risen') with the present ('these shares are rising') or the future ('these shares will rise.'). Don't get suckered.5. Pay no attention to TINA.Sooner or later someone will urge you to buy shares, even at very high prices, because There Is No Alternative. It is a popular hustle at the peak of the market. There are always alternatives -- like holding more cash until valuations are more attractive.6. Be truly diversified.That means investing across a spread of different asset classes and strategies. As investors discovered last year, 'large cap value' and 'mid cap blend' funds don't offer diversification. They're just marketing gimmicks.7. Treat forecasts with a grain of salt.Most economists missed the recession, most strategists missed the crash, and most analysts are bullish just before a stock falls. Even the good experts are prone to group think, office politics, career risk - and hall of mirror syndrome (see point 3, above).8. Never invest in what you don't understand.Be happy to underperform a bull market. During the last boom, many investors were advised to go all-in on shares to get the biggest long-term gains. But the stock market has infinite risk tolerance and an infinite time horizon. Real people can't compete with market indices, and shouldn't try.9. Ignore what everyone else is doing.It's natural to want to 'join the crowd' and avoid being 'left behind.' Leave those instincts in eighth grade. When it comes to investing, do what's right for you and your family.10. Be patient.Investment opportunities are like buses. If you missed one, you don't have to chase it. Relax. If history is any guide, others will be along shortly.11. Don't sit on the sidelines completely until it's too late.You'll probably end up splurging at the last moment. If you are afraid to invest, do it early, little, and often.12. And above all: Price matters.After all, an investment is just a claim check on future cash flows, whether it be a company's profits, a bond's coupons or an annuity's income stream. By definition, shares in a solvent company are twice as good at half the price… and vice versa. It's amazing how many people get suckered into thinking it's the other way around.I'd like to hear from readers: If you have any suggested rules of your own, let me know.(Brett Arends writes R.O.I., or Return On Investment, daily for the Online Journal, dissecting where personal finance meets current affairs, and how the latest news can make you money.)Brett Arends
Is this a new bull market? Nobody really knows for certain. But one will -- presumably -- come along in due course. Will investors make the same mistakes they made last time, or will they be wiser? Here are 12 rules for the next bull market -- whenever it turns up.1. Go global.Most investors prefer to stick to their 'home' market. It's a mistake. America accounts for only a fifth of the world economy but a third of its share values. No one knows where the best or worst returns will be, so spread your bets across the board. And you already have an oversized bet on the U.S. economy:, because you likely live, work and own a home here.2. Avoid big moves.If you buy or sell heavily in one shot you're taking a needless risk. And waiting for the right moment to make your move is futile. You probably won't catch the bottom or the peak anyway. If a market trend has much further to run, then what's the rush? And if it doesn't … what's the rush?3. Remember the market is just 'us.'No wonder shares rose when everyone was buying, and fell when they were selling. That was the reason. And when everyone is trying to predict 'the market,' they are effectively chasing themselves through a hall of mirrors.4. Don't get fooled, don't get tense… and don't get fooled by the wrong tense.Wall Street is riddled with people who mistake the past perfect ('these shares have risen') with the present ('these shares are rising') or the future ('these shares will rise.'). Don't get suckered.5. Pay no attention to TINA.Sooner or later someone will urge you to buy shares, even at very high prices, because There Is No Alternative. It is a popular hustle at the peak of the market. There are always alternatives -- like holding more cash until valuations are more attractive.6. Be truly diversified.That means investing across a spread of different asset classes and strategies. As investors discovered last year, 'large cap value' and 'mid cap blend' funds don't offer diversification. They're just marketing gimmicks.7. Treat forecasts with a grain of salt.Most economists missed the recession, most strategists missed the crash, and most analysts are bullish just before a stock falls. Even the good experts are prone to group think, office politics, career risk - and hall of mirror syndrome (see point 3, above).8. Never invest in what you don't understand.Be happy to underperform a bull market. During the last boom, many investors were advised to go all-in on shares to get the biggest long-term gains. But the stock market has infinite risk tolerance and an infinite time horizon. Real people can't compete with market indices, and shouldn't try.9. Ignore what everyone else is doing.It's natural to want to 'join the crowd' and avoid being 'left behind.' Leave those instincts in eighth grade. When it comes to investing, do what's right for you and your family.10. Be patient.Investment opportunities are like buses. If you missed one, you don't have to chase it. Relax. If history is any guide, others will be along shortly.11. Don't sit on the sidelines completely until it's too late.You'll probably end up splurging at the last moment. If you are afraid to invest, do it early, little, and often.12. And above all: Price matters.After all, an investment is just a claim check on future cash flows, whether it be a company's profits, a bond's coupons or an annuity's income stream. By definition, shares in a solvent company are twice as good at half the price… and vice versa. It's amazing how many people get suckered into thinking it's the other way around.I'd like to hear from readers: If you have any suggested rules of your own, let me know.(Brett Arends writes R.O.I., or Return On Investment, daily for the Online Journal, dissecting where personal finance meets current affairs, and how the latest news can make you money.)Brett Arends