As Liquidity Drains, So Does Inflation Risk

美联储(Fed)准备公布最新的美国经济整体状况，而通胀在其中仍然踪迹全无。美联储周三发布最新的“黄皮书”，其内容汇总了从12家地方联邦储备银行收集的经济迹象。这份报告对经济做出了十分详尽及时的诊断。美联储利用黄皮书在政策会议上对决策进行引导，9月22日-23日就将召开一次政策会议。这份报告的定调可能有助于确定美联储官员何时会撤销非常规的货币政策措施，包括零利率以及购买美国国债和抵押贷款债券。考虑到大多数人都认为衰退已经或者即将结束，股市和大宗商品市场的反弹也与此相符，一些观察人士据此认为，美联储应当抽离资金，以防引发通胀。事实上，无论是偶然发生还是刻意为之，流动性已经显出枯竭之势。Gluskin Sheff首席经济学家罗森博格(David Rosenberg)说，包括存单等定期存款在内的M2货币供应量已经连续四周下降，折合年率降幅12%。圣路易斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)出台的另一项旨在更好地衡量整体流动性的标准MZM过去四周降幅折合年率为16%。上述两种货币供应量规模分别为8.3万亿美元和9.5万亿美元，仍然接近纪录水平。但货币流通速度正在下滑。即便国内生产总值(GDP)如许多经济学家预期的那样，在第三季度达到折合年率3%的增幅，GDP与MZM货币供应量的比值仍然会处于不足1.5的低水平。MZM货币供应量是衡量货币流通速度的一个标准。由于资金流动缓慢，通胀也就不会成为太大的风险。7月份发布的黄皮书显示，劳动力市场受到的冲击基本上消除了薪水的上行压力，消费者仍然受到这种情况的影响。消费者动用的资金在美国经济中所占比例最大。如果薪水无法实现更强劲的增长，货币流通就会长时间处于缓慢状态，通缩的风险也会高过通胀。Mark Gongloff相关阅读格林斯潘：Fed需削减资产规模以避免出现两位数通货膨胀 2009-09-07经济前景不确定 国债市场找线索 2009-08-31经济学家对美通货膨胀前景意见不一 2009-08-31


As the Fed prepares to unveil its latest panoramic snapshot of the U.S. economy, inflation still is nowhere in the picture.On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases its latest 'beige book' report, a compilation of anecdotal evidence about the economy gathered from the 12 regional Fed banks.The report offers a richly detailed, timely diagnostic on the economy. The Fed uses the beige book to guide its decision making during policy meetings, including the one scheduled for Sept. 22 and 23.The report's tone could help determine when central bankers will unwind extraordinary monetary-policy measures, including 0% interest rates and programs to buy Treasury and mortgage debt.Given the consensus that the recession is at or near an end, echoed by rallies in stock and commodity markets, some observers think the Fed should pull money out of the system soon lest it unleash inflation.In fact, whether by accident or design, some liquidity already seems to be draining away. M2 money supply, a measure that includes time deposits such as certificates of deposit, has fallen for four weeks in a row, at a 12% annualized rate, according to Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg.A separate measure by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, called MZM and designed to better gauge broad liquidity, has fallen at a 16% annualized pace in that time.At $8.3 trillion and $9.5 trillion, respectively, both money measures still are near records. But money velocity, or the speed with which cash is spent, is declining.Even if gross domestic product jumps in the third quarter at a 3% annualized rate, as many economists expect, then the ratio of GDP to MZM money supply, one measure of money velocity, still would be at a low of less than 1.5.With cash moving that slowly, inflation isn't a big risk.Consumers, the economy's biggest spenders, still are suffering from the damage done to the labor market, which 'has virtually eliminated upward wage pressure,' according to July's beige book.And without stronger wage growth, money's movement could be sluggish for a long time, with deflation a bigger risk than inflation.Mark Gongloff