Tuning Back In To The Economy
华尔街的注意力目前全都集中在了陆续发布的企业收益报告和美国政府对银行业的压力测试上，已顾不上关心美国经济。但人们或许很难忽视本周大量公布的经济数据，通过这些数据甚至还能了解美国经济的未来走势。市场普遍预计，本周公布的经济数据中许多都应该令人欣慰。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的消费者信心指数定于周二公布，预计这一数据在3月份令人吃惊地暴跌至26后本月将小幅反弹至29。经济学家们预计，美国供应管理学会(Institute for Supply Management)定于周五公布的制造业活动指数将从3月份的36.3回升至38，虽然这仍是一个很糟糕的水平。2月份的Case-Shiller 20城市住房价格指数也将于周二发布，这一指数甚至也有可能从1月份创历史低点的-19回升至-18.7。要换作别的时候，这样糟糕的数据足以让人产生大难临头的感觉，但当前这些数据却会被看作好消息。与许多其他数据一样，它们至少没有恶化，这暗示美国经济已经度过了最黑暗时刻，经济复苏已经近在眼前了。美国商务部(Commerce Department)周三将发布第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据，这一数据有可能为人们了解美国经济会以何种形态复苏提供一些线索。经济学家们认为，美国第一季度的GDP折合成年率将负增长4.6%，创下第二次世界大战以来的最差纪录，但与去年第四季度6.3%的降幅相比已有所好转。如果不是受削减库存影响，美国第一季度的GDP数据本来还可以更好些。据经济学家进行的一项不大科学的小规模抽样调查显示，美国第一季度折合成年率的库存削减规模为940亿美元。这至少是1997年以来规模最大的库存削减，从那一年起美国商务部开始发布有可比性的库存数据。但第一季度的库存削减量越大，第二季度的GDP就越佳。一旦货架被搬空，再无清理的余地，那么作为拖累第一季度GDP数据的一大因素，库存将不会再对第二季度GDP数据产生影响。Wachovia的经济学家魏特纳(Mark Vitner)认为，库存因素甚至足以使第二季度的GDP增幅转为正值，或至少持平，他的这一预测远比经济学家们的普遍预期来得乐观。不过，鉴于美国经济仍受到一系列问题的拖累，魏特纳也认为美国第三季度的GDP有可能重陷负增长。此外，那些已被清理的库存许多都是消费电子产品和廉价服装等进口产品。重新补充这类库存将意味着美国要增加进口，而进口是GDP的减值因素(美国增加进口将会提振中国台湾和其他出口方的GDP)。魏特纳说，回顾以往的经济衰退不难发现，在衰退过程中出现一个季度的GDP正增长并非怪事，这并不意味着经济已经出现了转机，如果GDP恢复正增长是由库存削减速度放慢导致的，情况就更是如此了。当然，美国经济会在第二季度暂时恢复正增长只是Wachovia最乐观的预测，这一假想存在很多漏洞，与经济学家们关于美国经济会沿有序之路复苏的普遍预期严重不符。这类乐观预期总是不大靠得住的。Mark Gongloff（“市场脉动”深入华尔街内部，寻找影响市场的新闻，分析引起关注的走势和数据，由David Gaffen主笔。）相关阅读美国财政部重申：看到经济衰退放缓的迹象 2009-04-28陈德铭：4月份中美贸易降速趋缓 2009-04-28美国经济发展轨迹的三种可能：VD还是L 2009-04-23油价下跌为何未能缓解美国经济困境？ 2009-04-22美国公司苦寻业绩触底迹象 2009-04-22
Engrossed by earnings season and bank stress tests, Wall Street's attention has drifted away from the economy. But a mountain of economic data might be hard to ignore this week and could even say something about the future.The market fully expects many of the numbers to be green and shooty. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, due Tuesday, is expected to rebound to a still-awful 29 after a surprising swoon to 26 in March. Economists expect the Institute for Supply Management's measure of the mood U.S. factories, due on Friday, to rise to a still-horrendous 38 from 36.3 in March. Even the Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index for February, also due on Tuesday, might rise to -18.7 from a record -19 in January.At any other time, numbers like these would be apocalyptic, but they're what pass for good news these days. Like many other data, they're at least not getting any worse, suggesting the darkest days are over for the economy and that a recovery is in sight.The first-quarter gross domestic product report, due from the Commerce Department on Wednesday, could offer some hints about what a recovery might look like.Economists think GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 4.6% in the quarter, one of the worst since World War II, but not as terrible as the 6.3% shrinkage in the fourth quarter of 2008.The first-quarter numbers would have been better if not for the vaporization of a whopping heap of inventories, which shrunk by an estimated $94 billion, annualized, in the quarter, based on a small, unscientific sampling of economists. That would be the biggest inventory reduction since at least 1997, when comparable Commerce Department records begin.But the worse the inventory draw-down in the first quarter, the better second-quarter GDP will look. Once shelves are empty they can't be cleared any more, so inventories, a big drag in the first quarter, could be a neutral force in the second quarter.Wachovia economist Mark Vitner thinks the effect could even be strong enough to turn second-quarter GDP positive, or at least flat - far better than the consensus expects.But he also thinks GDP will likely relapse into negative territory in the third quarter, given the problems still dogging the economy. What's more, many of the inventories that have been cleared away are imported goods like consumer electronics and cheap clothing. Restocking those will involve importing more, which subtracts from U.S. GDP (while adding to the GDP of China, Taiwan and other exporters).'If you look at past recessions, it's not uncommon to have a quarter of positive growth that interrupts the recession,' says Mr. Vitner. 'That doesn't mean the economy has turned a corner, particularly if it's the result of inventories being liquidated at a slower rate.'Of course, this is only Wachovia's best guess, but it's a plausible scenario - and defies the consensus conviction that the economy will follow an orderly path to recovery. Such convictions are always a little dangerous.Mark Gongloff
Engrossed by earnings season and bank stress tests, Wall Street's attention has drifted away from the economy. But a mountain of economic data might be hard to ignore this week and could even say something about the future.The market fully expects many of the numbers to be green and shooty. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, due Tuesday, is expected to rebound to a still-awful 29 after a surprising swoon to 26 in March. Economists expect the Institute for Supply Management's measure of the mood U.S. factories, due on Friday, to rise to a still-horrendous 38 from 36.3 in March. Even the Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index for February, also due on Tuesday, might rise to -18.7 from a record -19 in January.At any other time, numbers like these would be apocalyptic, but they're what pass for good news these days. Like many other data, they're at least not getting any worse, suggesting the darkest days are over for the economy and that a recovery is in sight.The first-quarter gross domestic product report, due from the Commerce Department on Wednesday, could offer some hints about what a recovery might look like.Economists think GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 4.6% in the quarter, one of the worst since World War II, but not as terrible as the 6.3% shrinkage in the fourth quarter of 2008.The first-quarter numbers would have been better if not for the vaporization of a whopping heap of inventories, which shrunk by an estimated $94 billion, annualized, in the quarter, based on a small, unscientific sampling of economists. That would be the biggest inventory reduction since at least 1997, when comparable Commerce Department records begin.But the worse the inventory draw-down in the first quarter, the better second-quarter GDP will look. Once shelves are empty they can't be cleared any more, so inventories, a big drag in the first quarter, could be a neutral force in the second quarter.Wachovia economist Mark Vitner thinks the effect could even be strong enough to turn second-quarter GDP positive, or at least flat - far better than the consensus expects.But he also thinks GDP will likely relapse into negative territory in the third quarter, given the problems still dogging the economy. What's more, many of the inventories that have been cleared away are imported goods like consumer electronics and cheap clothing. Restocking those will involve importing more, which subtracts from U.S. GDP (while adding to the GDP of China, Taiwan and other exporters).'If you look at past recessions, it's not uncommon to have a quarter of positive growth that interrupts the recession,' says Mr. Vitner. 'That doesn't mean the economy has turned a corner, particularly if it's the result of inventories being liquidated at a slower rate.'Of course, this is only Wachovia's best guess, but it's a plausible scenario - and defies the consensus conviction that the economy will follow an orderly path to recovery. Such convictions are always a little dangerous.Mark Gongloff