Crisis Tests China, India Ties

对玩具轮胎和铁矿石的争吵正在加剧中国与印度之间的紧张关系，这两个亚洲大国都希望撬开对方的市场，降低全球经济减速造成的冲击。Associated Press青岛一家玩具工厂中的女工中国的出口企业寄希望于不断扩大的印度市场能帮助抵消美国需求的放缓。不过印度正指责中国公司在印度市场上大肆出售在其它地区无法卖出的产品，并已向世界贸易组织(WTO)提起了针对中国的反倾销指控。这种贸易冲突正在考验这两个邻国改善长期以来复杂敏感的双边关系的努力。印度商工部商务秘书戈帕尔•皮莱(Gopal K. Pillai)在接受采访时说，我们始终认为，世界之大足以容纳下印度和中国，但我们仍出现了出口增长损害了印度产业的问题。这是我们担忧的原因。周四，印度和中国的商务部官员在新德里举行会议，试图找到共同立场。两国政府同意设立工作组，每隔几个月召开有关贸易问题的会议，然后再考虑是否诉诸WTO。中国商务部副部长钟山说，中国没有考虑对印度进行报复，但并不排除以后在WTO采取行动的可能。他对记者说，我相信双方都有能力通过沟通磋商妥善解决问题。两国经济能够共同走出目前危机的阴影。两国经常鼓吹双方合作能够带来的巨大潜力。两国官员说，中国和印度在全球经济中重要性的提高和发展中国家的地位使他们有可能在自然资源定价上结成盟友，在经贸论坛中成为合作伙伴，也成为彼此商品的大买家。中国是印度最大的贸易伙伴。根据中国政府的统计数据，2008年的双边贸易额比上年增长了34%，达到了517.8亿美元。尽管双边贸易大幅增长，但摩擦并未缓和多少，甚至可能在恶化。最近的纠纷就凸显出目前的困难时期是如何让他们的竞争关系变得更加激烈了。今年初，印度以安全原因为由停止进口中国玩具，后来又放宽了对某些产品的禁令。周三，中国在WTO有关贸易技术壁垒的一个研讨会上提及了印度的玩具禁令。目前印度在WTO还有大约十几起针对中国的未结反倾销案，其中包括对卡车轮胎和工业化学品出口激增的调查。这些争端在某种程度上反映出大国在全球经济放缓时的相互冲突。加州大学伯克利分校研究中国和印度经济的经济学家巴尔丹(Pranab K. Bardhan)说，印度似乎比中国更不愿意开放国内没有遇到多少外国竞争的产业。他说，印度是世界上全球化程度最低的国家之一。最近几个月里，印度与世界经济相对隔绝的状况可能使其没有受到全球经济严重下滑的冲击。印度1月份的出口比上年同期下降了16%，但海外销售只占印度国内生产总值的约五分之一。国际货币基金组织(IMF)说，预计2009年印度经济将增长5.1%，低于2008年的7.3%。相比之下，出口占中国经济产值的三分之一以上，而且下滑的速度更快。今年2月，中国的出口额比去年同期下降了26%。IMF预计今年中国经济将增长6.7%，低于去年的9%。随着中国出口减缓，工厂就业萎缩，中国政府承受着对抗外国贸易保护主义迹象的压力。四川大学南亚研究所研究员文富德说，印度的需求可能达不到美国的规模，但印度对一个不断增长的庞大市场设置的障碍会引发担忧。文富德说，印度制造的对华贸易摩擦绝大多数都是无理的。印度官员则反驳说，中国虽然嘴上喊着自由贸易，实际行动却是另一回事。商务秘书皮莱说，中国政府向出口商提供补贴，阻碍印度农产品进口，还支持掠夺印度薄弱产业的中国公司。皮莱说，最近几个月，中国国有化学制品企业通过虚价将过剩的产能转移到印度，同时又藉助沿用多年的安全检测阻碍印度农产品出口。他还说，上世纪90年代，从中国进口的低价青霉素令印度竞争对手遭遇灭顶之灾，后来中国就提高了青霉素的价格。皮莱说，根本问题在于中国并非市场经济。商工部大门口的一块标牌显示了印度与中国的明显区别。标牌上写着：印度：迅速发展的自由市场民主国家。即便是互补贸易领域，最近也出现了一些问题。印度贸易公司抱怨中国炼钢厂商减产后逐渐减少印度铁矿石定购量，导致印度公司出现重大亏损。中国进口商则说，印度政府对铁矿石征收关税导致印度铁矿石价格上涨。皮莱说大多数合同已经解决。一些人认为，中国和印度可以通过更多的合作来解决分歧。马里兰大学(University of Maryland)教授Getting China and India Right一书的着者之一古普塔(Anil Gupta)说，中国自身已经经历了基础设施建设热潮，可以帮助印度兴修公路桥梁和机场等基础设施。古普塔说，中国公司会给印度带来负担得起的设备和建筑技术，而印度合作伙伴可以为建设项目筹集资金并让项目在印度政府机构获得通过。印度的Larsen & Toubro Ltd.和上海城建集团正合作修建德里地铁项目的一部分。古普塔说，这是个很大的机会。在印度开展业务的中国管理人员抱怨说，双方的商业关系中仍然存在不信任。中印两国曾于1962年爆发边境战争，印度战败，而两国间仍有未解决的领土争议。中国在印度的投资也遭到严格的安全审查；一些中方管理人员的工作签证一直是个问题。已在新德里工作数年的中国管理人员Andy Wang说，很多中国人都想来印度，但随后他们发现在这儿开展业务有多难。如果这种情况继续下去，人们对印度的兴趣和投资就会减少。皮莱说，在38个中国投资项目中，只有两个项目因安全问题而被否决；数千名在印度工作的中国人都没有签证问题。一些官员预见中印将会组建广泛的经济联盟，但其实中印关系还远远不到这种程度。虽然两国在多哈回合贸易谈判中都与美国在农产品进口问题上发生冲突，但两国之间在出口市场能源资产和投资项目等方面仍存在强烈竞争。皮莱说，合作还没有真正实现。Peter Wonacott（更新完成）


Spats over toys, tires and iron ore are stoking tension between China and India, as the two Asian giants try to pry open each other's markets and soften the impact of the global economic slowdown.China's exporters covet a growing India to help offset slowing demand from the U.S. Yet India is accusing Chinese companies of swamping its market with what it can't sell elsewhere, and has lodged antidumping cases against China at the World Trade Organization. The trade disputes are testing efforts to improve what's long been a prickly relationship between the two neighbors.'We've always said the world is large enough for India and China, but we have a problem with a surge in exports that hurts Indian industry,' said Indian commerce secretary, Gopal K. Pillai, in an interview. 'It's a cause for worry.'On Thursday, officials from Indian and Chinese commerce ministries met in New Delhi to find common ground. The two governments agreed to set up a working group that would meet every few months on trade issues before they reach the WTO. Zhong Shan, China's vice trade minister, said Beijing wasn't considering retaliating against India, but didn't rule out taking future action at the WTO.'I believe both countries have the ability to talk through problems,' he told reporters. 'Both economies can work out of the shadows of the current crisis together.'The two nations often have touted their potential to join forces. Their growing economic heft and developing-country status could make them allies in setting prices for natural resources, partners at trade forums and big buyers of each other's goods, officials from both countries say.China is India's largest trade partner. Bilateral trade jumped 34% to $51.78 billion in 2008 from the year earlier, according to Chinese government statistics.While trade has flourished, frictions haven't eased much -- and might be getting worse. Recent disputes highlight how tough times have hardened the economic rivalry.Earlier this year, India blocked Chinese toy imports for safety reasons before relaxing the ban for certain products. On Wednesday, China raised India's toy ban during a WTO discussion on technical barriers to trade. India has about a dozen antidumping cases against China outstanding at the WTO, including investigations into export surges of truck tires and industrial chemicals.The disputes partly reflect the jostling of goliaths in a slowing global economy. India appears more reluctant than China to opening domestic industries that haven't faced much foreign competition, according to Pranab K. Bardhan, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley who studies the Chinese and Indian economies. 'India is among the least globalized countries in the world,' he says.In recent months, India's relative insulation from the world economy has probably saved it from a big slowdown. India's exports in January slumped 16% from a year earlier, but overseas sales make up only about one-fifth of its gross domestic product. India's economy is expected to expand 5.1% in 2009, from a 7.3% clip last year, according to the International Monetary Fund. By contrast, China's exports account for more than one-third of its economic output, and the decline has been sharper. In February, China's exports fell 26% from a year ago. The IMF projects China's economy will grow 6.7% this year, off from the 9% growth the year before.As Chinese exports slow and factory jobs disappear, Beijing has come under pressure to combat signs of foreign protectionism. India may not generate the same demand as the U.S., but its barriers to a big and growing market are cause for concern, says Wen Fude of the Institute of South Asian Studies at Sichuan University.'Most of these trade frictions created by India towards China are unreasonable,' he says.Indian officials counter that while China talks about free trade, what it practices is something different. Mr. Pillai, the commerce secretary, says Beijing subsidizes exporters, obstructs Indian farm imports and supports Chinese companies who prey upon vulnerable Indian industries.In recent months, China's state-owned chemical makers have steered excess capacity to India at nominal prices, he says, while blocking India's farm exports with safety tests that have stretched on for years. Mr. Pillai adds that cheap Chinese imports of penicillin destroyed Indian competitors in the 1990s, after which China raised its prices.'The fundamental problem is that China isn't a market economy,' he says. A plaque at the commerce ministry entrance draws a clear distinction with its neighbor. 'India: Fastest Growing Free Market Democracy,' it says.Even in complementary trade areas, there have been problems recently. Indian trading companies have complained that Chinese steelmakers have backed away from orders of Indian iron ore after reducing production, causing major losses. Chinese importers say that Indian prices rose after the Indian government imposed a tax on iron ore. Mr. Pillai says most contracts have been resolved.Some see the potential for China and India to work through their differences by doing more business together. Having been through an infrastructure boom of its own, China could help India's build-out of roads, bridges and airports, according to Anil Gupta, a professor at University of Maryland and co-author of 'Getting China and India Right.'Chinese companies would bring affordable equipment and construction expertise to India, he says, while Indian partners could raise money for projects and navigate the nation's bureaucracy. India's Larsen & Toubro Ltd. and Shanghai Urban Construction (Group) Corp. are building part of the Delhi Metro subway project together. 'It's a massive opportunity,' says Mr. Gupta.Chinese executives who are doing business in India complain that distrust remains part of the commercial relationship. The two countries fought a 1962 border war, which India lost, and some of the territory between them remains unsettled. Chinese investments also have been subjected to rigorous security reviews; work visas have been a problem for some executives.'So many Chinese want to come to India, but then they find out how difficult it is to do business,' says Andy Wang, a Chinese executive who has worked in New Delhi for several years. 'If this continues, India will receive less interest and investment.'Mr. Pillai says out of 38 proposals, only two Chinese projects have been rejected on security grounds; thousands of Chinese work in India without visa problems, he adds.India and China still are far from forging a broad economic alliance that some officials envision. Despite both countries clashing with the U.S. on farm imports at the Doha Round of trade talks, they continue to compete fiercely -- for export markets, energy assets and investment projects. 'Cooperation hasn't really worked,' Mr. Pillai says.Peter Wonacott