A Scab Grows On Wall Street
周一对华尔街来说似乎又是百无聊赖的一天。但表面现象可能是骗人的。这一天也许是今年最为重要的一个交易日。道琼斯指数周一下挫了40来点，但要知道，在上周五发布了就业数据IBM与Sun的交易也遭遇失败的情况下，道指本来有可能直降400点。道指所表现出来的这种弹性是个好兆头。华尔街那些大大小小的伤口终于开始结痂愈合了。当然，在本轮糟糕透顶的熊市中，人们很难相信任何良好感觉。但回头想想去年11月和今年1－2月那段疯狂的日子。当堪称银行业大师级人物的梅奥(Mike Mayo)和惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)大声疾呼“出售银行股”的时候，道指应声跌入了死亡漩涡。周一，市场似乎摆脱了上述因素的影响，等于是说“已经够了”。这倒不是因为梅奥和惠特尼没有再出惊“市”之语。梅奥现在就职于另一家投资银行，CNBC的盖斯帕里诺(Charlie Gasparino)在早上7点15分左右播报了梅奥推荐出售银行股的消息。惠特尼实际上比梅奥动作还要快。早上6点，Forbes.com上就刊登了福布斯(Steve Forbes)对她的访谈，她在访谈中表示看跌股市（不过在最后一小时交易时段，她接受CNBC主播巴蒂罗姆(Maria Bartiromo)采访时给出的看法较为乐观）。但总的来说，市场似乎并不在意他们的观点。金融股在收盘前反弹，全天仅下跌2.5%左右。这样的结果不应该让任何人感到意外。过去几周，市场的心理状态已经从高度焦虑转向试探性的乐观。没错，股价四周上涨25%会起到让人意外的效果。但在华尔街，似乎贪婪正在再次取代担忧，虽然这个过程很缓慢。所谓的“恐惧指数”－－VIX波动指数正在下降，因为去年那些惊慌失措的卖家现在又开始担心他们其实应当买进。10年期美国国债收益率上升，因为容易兴奋的投资者意识到2.5%的收益率并不是那么让人兴奋。就连本来应该扶摇直上的黄金价格也出现下跌。政府正在向经济中注入数万亿美元。埃霍恩(David Einhorn)这样的热门对冲基金经理也纷纷涌入黄金交易。但黄金价格较2月的高点下挫了逾10%。眼下，投资者似乎都愿意将风险较高资产的安全性问题暂时放到一边。不过问题是，这种情况能持续多长时间？这个问题可以说关系到10万亿美元。当然，在华尔街，没有人确切地知道答案。索罗斯(George Soros)和鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)等持悲观论调的人认为股市即将下行，他们可能是对的。再过几天，糟糕的收益季可能就会印证他们的看法。看涨股市的毕格斯(Barton Biggs)和克莱默(Jim Cramer)等人也可能是对的，没准现在股市已经触底了。这次我支持克莱默的看法，主要是因为他解读周一股市走势的方式跟我一样。正如他所说的：“周一的反弹是我所见过的所有牛市共有的特点。”在整个华尔街范围内，伤口正在结痂。愈合康复的过程已经开始。让我们期待这一切将会结束。Evan Newmark（编者按：本文作者Evan Newmark曾在华尔街工作了20余年，目前已远离各大投行自己在进行股票投资。本栏目文章选自他在Deal Journl上的博客Mean Street。栏目内容都与华尔街有关。）
Monday may have seemed another ho-hum day on Wall Street. But appearances can be deceiving.It may have been the single most important trading day of the year.The Dow ended the day down 40 or so points but, with Friday's job numbers and the collapse of the IBM/Sun deal, it could have been down 400.That kind of resiliency is a good sign. Scabs are finally growing over Wall Street's gaping wounds.Of course, it's hard to trust any feel-good feeling in this atrocious bear market.But cast your mind back to the crazy days of November, January or February. When banking gurus like Mike Mayo and Meredith Whitney screamed 'sell the banks,' the Dow reflexively fell into a death spiral.Monday, the market seemed to shrug them off, saying in effect, 'enough, already.'Not that Mayo and Whitney both didn't try to give the market a fit. Mayo, now employed by yet another investment bank, had CNBC's Charlie Gasparino 'break the news' of his sell recommendations on the banks at around 7:15 a.m.Whitney actually beat Mayo to the punch. A bearish interview with Steve Forbes appeared on Forbes.com at 6 a.m. (although, she was somewhat more sanguine with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo in the last hour of trading.)But overall, the market didn't really seem to care. Financial stocks rallied into the close and ended the day down only about 2.5%.This outcome shouldn't have surprised anyone. Over the last few weeks, the market's psychology has shifted from high anxiety to tentative optimism.And, yes, a four-week 25% tear in share prices will do that. But on Wall Street it seems that greed is again replacing fear, albeit slowly.The VIX, the so-called fear index, is falling as last year's panicked sellers now panic that they should actually be buying.The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is rising as easily excitable investors realize that a 2.5% yield isn't all that exciting.Even the price of gold is falling when it should be heading to the moon. The government is printing trillions of dollars. And hot hedge-fund managers like David Einhorn are piling into the trade. But the price of gold is off more than 10% from its peak in February.For the time being, investors seem willing to give riskier assets the benefit of the doubt. The $10 trillion question is for how long?And of course, on Wall Street, nobody really knows.The doomsayers like George Soros and Nouriel Roubini may be right about the stock market's impending decline. And a lousy earnings season may prove them correct in just a matter of days.Or the bulls like Barton Biggs and Jim Cramer could be right and the bottom could be here.I'm going to go with Jim Cramer on this one, largely because he saw Monday's tape the same way I did. As he noted, 'Today's comeback is endemic of every bull market I have ever seen.'All over Wall Street, the scabs are growing. The healing has begun. Let's hope it will finish.Evan Newmark
Monday may have seemed another ho-hum day on Wall Street. But appearances can be deceiving.It may have been the single most important trading day of the year.The Dow ended the day down 40 or so points but, with Friday's job numbers and the collapse of the IBM/Sun deal, it could have been down 400.That kind of resiliency is a good sign. Scabs are finally growing over Wall Street's gaping wounds.Of course, it's hard to trust any feel-good feeling in this atrocious bear market.But cast your mind back to the crazy days of November, January or February. When banking gurus like Mike Mayo and Meredith Whitney screamed 'sell the banks,' the Dow reflexively fell into a death spiral.Monday, the market seemed to shrug them off, saying in effect, 'enough, already.'Not that Mayo and Whitney both didn't try to give the market a fit. Mayo, now employed by yet another investment bank, had CNBC's Charlie Gasparino 'break the news' of his sell recommendations on the banks at around 7:15 a.m.Whitney actually beat Mayo to the punch. A bearish interview with Steve Forbes appeared on Forbes.com at 6 a.m. (although, she was somewhat more sanguine with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo in the last hour of trading.)But overall, the market didn't really seem to care. Financial stocks rallied into the close and ended the day down only about 2.5%.This outcome shouldn't have surprised anyone. Over the last few weeks, the market's psychology has shifted from high anxiety to tentative optimism.And, yes, a four-week 25% tear in share prices will do that. But on Wall Street it seems that greed is again replacing fear, albeit slowly.The VIX, the so-called fear index, is falling as last year's panicked sellers now panic that they should actually be buying.The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is rising as easily excitable investors realize that a 2.5% yield isn't all that exciting.Even the price of gold is falling when it should be heading to the moon. The government is printing trillions of dollars. And hot hedge-fund managers like David Einhorn are piling into the trade. But the price of gold is off more than 10% from its peak in February.For the time being, investors seem willing to give riskier assets the benefit of the doubt. The $10 trillion question is for how long?And of course, on Wall Street, nobody really knows.The doomsayers like George Soros and Nouriel Roubini may be right about the stock market's impending decline. And a lousy earnings season may prove them correct in just a matter of days.Or the bulls like Barton Biggs and Jim Cramer could be right and the bottom could be here.I'm going to go with Jim Cramer on this one, largely because he saw Monday's tape the same way I did. As he noted, 'Today's comeback is endemic of every bull market I have ever seen.'All over Wall Street, the scabs are growing. The healing has begun. Let's hope it will finish.Evan Newmark