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翻译自《The Economist 》August 3rd-9th 2019
翻译人：Anthony
Rich countries are racing to dematerialise payments. They need to do more to prepare for the side-effects
发达国家竞相使用电子支付，他们应做好准备应对随之而来的副作用。
For the past 3,000 years, when people thought of money they thought of cash. From buying food to settling bar tabs, day-to-day dealings involved creased paper or clinking bits of metal. Over the past decade, however, digital payments have taken off. tapping your plastic on a terminal or swiping a smartphone has become normal. Now this revolution is about to turn cash into an endangered species in some rich economies. That will make the economy more efficient—but it also poses new problems that could hold the transition hostage.
过去的三千年间，提起钱人们就会想起现金。从购买食物到结算酒吧消费，日常交易都涉及到皱巴巴的纸币或叮当作响的金属币。然而，过去十年间，电子支付迅速发展，在终端机划卡或刷手机已经成为常态。现在，这场革命即将让现金在发达国家成为濒危物种。电子支付将使经济更加有效，但同时也带来了一些新的问题，这些问题可能会阻碍经济转型。
Countries are eliminating cash at varying speeds. But the direction of travel is clear, and in some cases the journey is nearly complete. In Sweden the number of retail cash transactions per person has fallen by 80% in the past ten years. Cash accounts for just 6% of purchases by value in Norway. Britain is probably four or six years behind the Nordic countries. America is perhaps a decade behind. Outside the rich world, cash is still king. But even there its dominance is being eroded. In China digital payments rose from 4% of all payments in 2012 to 34% in 2017.
现金在各个国家消失的速度不同。但行进方向却是明确的，在某些情况下，变革已接近完成。在过去的十年里，瑞典人均零售现金交易数量下降了80%。按价值计算，现金仅占挪威购买量的6%。英国可能比北欧国家落后四或六年。美国或许落后了十年。而在发达国家之外，现金仍然是王道。发达国家之外，现金主导地位也正在受到侵蚀。在中国，电子支付占所有支付的比例从2012年的4%升至2017年的34%。
Cash is dying out because of two forces. One is demand younger consumers want payment systems that plug seamlessly into their digital lives. But equally important is that suppliers such as banks and tech firms (in developed markets) and telecoms companies (in emerging ones) are developing fast, easy-to-use payment technologies from which they can pull data and pocket fees. There is a high cost to running the infrastructure behind the cash economy—atms, vans carrying notes, tellers who accept coins. Most financial firms are keen to abandon it, or deter old-fashioned customers with hefty fees.
由于两股力量，现金正在枯竭。一个是年轻的消费者希望支付系统能无缝地接入他们的数字生活的需求。但同样重要的是，银行和科技公司(在发达市场)以及电信公司(在新兴市场)等供应商正在开发快捷简便的支付技术，这种数据可以支持从中获取数据和收取小额费用。运营现金经济背后的基础设施成本很高——自动取款机、钞票运输车、接受硬币的出纳员。大多数金融公司都热衷于放弃现金，或者用高昂的费用阻止传统的客户。
In the main the prospect of a cashless economy is excellent news. Cash is inefficient. In rich countries, minting, sorting, storing and distributing it is estimated to cost about 0.5% of GDP. But that does not begin to capture the gains. When payments dematerialise, people and shops are less vulnerable to theft. Governments can keep closer tabs on fraud or tax evasion. Digitalisation vastly expands the playground of small businesses and sole traders by enabling them to sell beyond their borders. It also creates a credit history, helping consumers borrow.
总的来说，无现金经济前景一片大好。现金低效。在发达国家，铸造、分拣、储存和分配这些成本估计约占GDP的0.5%。但成本高并没有带来好处。当支付电子化时，人们和商店就不那么容易被盗。政府可以对欺诈和逃税进行更密切的监控。数字化使小型企业和个体贸易商能够在海外销售产品，从而极大地拓展了经营范围。数字化还创造了信用记录，帮助消费者借贷。
Yet set against these benefits are a bundle of worries. Electronic payment systems may be vulnerable to technical failures, power blackouts and cyber-attacks—this week Capital One, an American bank, became the latest firm to be hacked. In a cashless economy the poor, the elderly and country folk may be left behind. And eradicating cash, an anonymous payment method, for a digital system could let governments snoop on people’s shopping habits and private titans exploit their personal data.
然而，在这些益处背后，也有令人担忧的地方。电子支付系统可能容易受到技术故障、停电和网络攻击的影响。本周，美国第一资本银行成为最新一家遭到黑客攻击的公司。在无现金经济环境下中，穷人、老年人和乡下人可能会被落下。此外，数字系统消除了现金的匿名支付方式，可能会让政府窥探人们的购物习惯，让私人巨头利用消费者的个人数据。
These problems have three remedies. First, governments need to ensure that central banks’ monopoly over coins and notes is not replaced by private monopolies over digital money. Rather than letting a few credit-card firms have a stranglehold on the electronic pipes for digital payments, as America may yet allow, governments must ensure the payments plumbing is open to a range of digital firms which can build services on top of it. They should urge banks to offer cheap, instant, bank-to-bank digital transfers between deposit accounts, as in Sweden and the Netherlands. Competition should keep prices low so that the poor can afford most services, and it should also mean that if one firm stumbles others can step in, making the system resilient.
这些问题有三个补救措施。首先，政府需要确保央行对硬币和纸币的垄断不会被私人对数字货币的垄断所取代。政府必须确保支付通道向一系列数字公司开放，而不是像美国可能允许的那样，让少数信用卡公司牢牢控制数字支付的电子通道。政府应该敦促银行像瑞典和荷兰那样，在存款账户之间提供费用低、即时的银行间数字转账服务。竞争应该使价格保持在低水平，这样穷人就能负担得起大部分的服务，这也应该意味着，如果一家公司遇到困难，其他公司也可以介入，使这个系统具有弹性。
Second, governments should maintain banks’ obligation to keep customer information private, so that the plumbing remains anonymous. Digital firms that use this plumbing to offer services should be free to monetise transaction data, through, for example, advertising, so long as their business model is made explicit to users. Some customers will favour free services that track their purchases; others will want to pay to be left alone.
第二点，政府应该保持银行对客户信息保密的义务，这样银行的信息管道才能保持匿名。使用这种管道来提供服务的数字公司应该可以通过广告等方式自由地将交易数据货币化，只要他们的商业模式对用户明确。一些顾客会倾向于使用免费的服务来跟踪他们的购买行为；另一些人会想要付出代价让自己独处。
Last, the phase-out of cash should be gradual. For a period of ten years, banks should be obliged to accept and distribute cash in populated areas. This will buy governments time to help the poor open bank accounts, educate the elderly and beef up internet access in rural areas. The rush towards digital money is the result of spontaneous demand and innovation. To pocket all the rewards, governments need to prepare for the day when crumpled bank notes change hands for the last time.
最后，现金应逐步淘汰。在十年的时间里，银行有义务在人口密集的地区接受和发放现金。这将为政府争取时间，帮助贫困人口开设银行账户，教老年人使用，并加强农村地区的互联网接入。对数字货币的狂热是自发需求和创新的结果。为了把所有的奖励都装进口袋，各国政府需要做好准备，迎接皱巴巴的钞票最后一次易手的那一天。