12 HASTY CONCLUSIONS
仓促的结论
仓促的下结论，有时候是因为无知，有时候是因为片面
文中给出了避免仓促下结论的方法有三点，
第一是下结论的时候先问下自己有没有把所有的重要情况考虑到
第二是如果有几种情况无法确定，那么就分情况给出结论
第三是，如果不知道会得出什么结论，那么先尝试作出一个自己的结论不要怕错
仓促的下结论就是片面的考虑问题，武断的得出结论，认为自己的就是好的
我们生活中又是不是会经常仓促下结论呢？
A hasty conclusion is a premature judgment – that is, one drawn before sufficient evidence is obtained. Exactly what constitutes sufficient evidence varies from case to case. In general, we may say the evidence is clearly insufficient when there are two or more possible conclusions and the evidence does not clearly favor any one of them.
仓促的结论是不成熟的判断 - 也就是说一个人在得到充分的证据之前得出结论。确切地说，构成充分证据的因素因案例而异。一般来说，当有两个或两个以上的可能结论时，而且证据并不明显支持其中的任何一个，证据显然是不够充分的。
For example, consider a conclusion some people accept quite readily: "The average American college student is in college to have a good time."Most who accept this probably arrive at their position from a mixture of the stereotype of the carefree, fun-loving college student and some acquaintance with a few college students. They may know a neighbor who failed out of a couple of colleges, have heard stories about wild irresponsibility among other young people, and believe their own sons or daughters pay too little attention to their studies.
例如，考虑一些人很容易接受的结论：“ 普通的美国大学生在大学里度过了一段美好的时光。 ”大多数接受这种观点的人可能会从无忧无虑，爱好娱乐的刻板印象中混合出来总结的大学生和一些大学生的共性。他们可能认识一个在几个学院都失败的邻居，听说过其他年轻人中疯狂的不负责任的故事，并认为自己的儿子或女儿对学习的关注太少。
Is that enough evidence to support the conclusion? Hardly. The judgment may not even fit the known students. The neighbor may have been enrolled in programs beyond his capacity and failed despite arduous effort. The stories about the other students may be inaccurate or oversimplified. And the people's own children may be more conscientious than they appear to be. Yet even if the judgment fits all those individuals, that does not prove that their behavior is typical of the"average American college student."
是否有足够的证据支持这一结论？几乎不。这个判断甚至可能不适合已知的学生。邻居可能已经参加了超出他的能力的项目，并且尽管付出了艰辛的努力也失败了。有关其他学生的故事可能不准确或过于简单。人民自己的孩子可能比他们看起来更认真。然而，即使这些判断适合所有这些学生，但这也并不能证明他们的行为是“普通美国大学生”的典型表现。
The close study of a wider sampling of college students would undoubtedly reveal that for many, perhaps a majority, there is no single motivation for being in college. Rather, there are several motivations – for example, some degree of interest in their particular field of study, a hope for the added career security that a degree traditional brings, the desire to please their parents, and the hope of meeting other young people with similar interests. In such cases, where the motivation to have a good time exists – and it is entirely normal for it to exist – having a good time is usually only a part of the overall motivation.
对大学生进行更广泛抽样的深入研究无疑会揭示，对于许多人，也许是大多数人来说，大学里没有单一的动机。相反，有 几个 动机 - 例如，他们对特定研究领域的某种程度的兴趣，传统学位带来的更多职业安全的希望，取悦父母的愿望以及与其他有类似兴趣的年轻人会面的希望。在这种情况下，如果存在一段美好时光的动机 - 而且存在这种情况完全是正常的 - 享受美好时光通常只是整体动机的一部分。
WEIGHING BOTH SIDES
衡量两边
Another example of a quite common hasty conclusion is this one: "The overall effect of technology has been dehumanize people."Many arrive at this conclusion after reading an article or two lamenting the decline of craftsmanship or the rising rate of crime in cities. There is a wide array of additional evidence that can be used to attack technology – from the character of many of the tasks workers are expected to perform to the development of sprawling suburbs, the emphasis on objects rather than human relationships, the increase in personal mobility, and the resulting erosion of family life and the values traditionally taught by the family.
另一个相当普遍的草率结论的例子是这样的：“ 技术的整体效应已经使人们失去人性。 ”许多人在阅读了一篇文章或两篇文章在感叹工艺技术的衰落或城市犯罪率上升之后就得出这个结论。有许多可用于攻击技术的额外证据 - 从工作人员计划将执行的许多工作的特点来看，这些工作将发展到郊区，强调对象是物体而不是人际关系，增加了个人的能动性，以及由此导致的家庭生活的受损和家庭传统教导的价值的受损。
However, even this impressive evidence would not be sufficient to support the conclusion. Any judgment about the "net or overall effect" demands a weighing of both sides, the plus and the minus. Specifically what is needed, then, is the other side of the issue – the favorable effects of technological advance. 然而，即使这个令人印象深刻的证据也不足以支持这一结论。任何关于“净效应”或“总效应”的判断都要求衡量双方的增加或减少。具体而言，需要的是该问题的另一方面 - 技术进步的有利影响。
If we were to look for such balancing effects, we'd find that technology has decreased the burden of extreme physical labor for millions of people. It has cut the fourteen- to sixteen-hour workday in half and given people time to invest in the finer human pursuits. It has given us electric lights and central heating and the means to travel long distances quickly and comfortably. It has conquered plague and famine. Any judgment of technology that does not weigh these and other advantages against the shortcomings is unfair and shallow.
如果我们要寻找这种平衡效应，我们会发现技术已经减轻了数百万人体力劳动的负担。它将工作时间从16个半小时减少到了14个小时，让人们有时间投入更精细的人类追求。它为我们提供了电灯和中央供暖系统，以及快速，舒适地远距离旅行的方式。它征服了瘟疫和饥荒。对技术的任何判断如果不能衡量这些缺点和与之对应的优点，这是不公平和浅薄的。
Hasty conclusions are not just an affliction of the uneducated. They are also found among the highly educated – even among serious scholars. The reason is that hasty conclusions are a consequence of the human condition. In other words, they are made possible by our own natural tendencies and the peculiarities of certain normal situations.
匆忙的结论不仅仅是未受过教育的人的痛苦。他们也是受过高等教育的人 - 即使是在严肃的学者中也是如此。原因是仓促的结论是人类状况的后果。换句话说，它们是由我们自己的自然倾向和某些正常情感情况的特性而形成的一种可能。
CAUSES OF HASTY CONCLUSIONS
仓促下结论的原因
Some people's major concern in thinking is convenience. They are afraid of arduous analysis and rattled by complexity. As a result, they will leap at the first conclusion that occurs to them. They may hear someone saying energy shortages are artificial, manufactured by the oil companies and corrupt government officials. And so they will accept that conclusion uncritically. After repeating it a few times, they harden it into an article of faith.
有些人主要关心的是方便。他们害怕艰难的分析和复杂性。因此，他们会跳出对他们发生的第一个结论。他们可能会听到有人说能源短缺是人为的，由石油公司和腐败的政府官员造成的。所以他们会毫不含糊地接受这个结论。经过几次重复转述之后，它们变成了一篇真实的文章。【所谓的三人成虎吧】
Compounding this tendency is the desire to sound authoritative. Feeling some insecurity and wanting to compensate for it, or wanting to make their conversation livelier, many people have the habit of escalating every statement to a higher level of generalization. "A teenager was behaving very boisterously in the supermarket yesterday" becomes "Today's teenagers are very boisterous." "Mr. Easel, the art teacher at the local high school, gave my son an unfairly low grade" becomes "Teachers aren't fair in their grading." In a thousand different ways, "one" becomes"many" or "all," and "once" becomes"often" or "always."
多元化这种趋势是权威性的愿望。感觉到一些不安全感并想要补偿它，或者想要让他们的谈话更加活跃，许多人都有将每一个陈述升级到更高层次的概念的习惯。 “一个十几岁的孩子昨天在超市里表现得非常热情”变成“今天的青少年非常热闹”。 “当地高中美术老师艾瑟尔先生给我儿子一个不公平的低分数”变成“老师对他们的评分不公平”。千种不同的方式，“一个”变成“许多”或“全部”，还有“一次”变成“经常”或“总是”。
Even people who have managed to get beyond convenience-thinking to greater intellectual maturity can not escape another normal tendency – the tendency to prefer, in certain matters, one idea over all others. People may be fully conscious of this tendency, even as it is exerting its pull on their thinking. Or they may be completely unaware of it. In the latter case, of course, they are more likely to be affected by it. But either way its attraction is powerful.
即使那些设法超越便利思考的人，为了智力成熟度的提高，也无法摆脱另一种正常的倾向 - 在某些事情上倾向于所有其他人的倾向。人们可能完全意识到这种倾向，即使它正在对自己的想法施加压力。或者他们可能完全不了解它。当然，在后一种情况下，它们更可能受其影响。但无论如何它的吸引力是强大的。
Many movie magazine and romance magazine readers fall prey to this tendency. They stand ready to embrace any report, however farfetched, of scandalous behavior among celebrities. They accept as gospel the most incredible fictions, like "I was Attacked by a Creature from Another Galaxy." Undoubtedly, many of the conclusions they eagerly accept reinforce their own deep desires and fantasies. Almost certainly, their conclusions support their view of life and human nature.
许多电影杂志和浪漫杂志读者都成为这种倾向的牺牲品。他们随时准备接受任何报道，无论这些报道如何牵扯到名人之间的令人反感的行为。他们接受福音书为最难以置信的小说，如“我被另一个银河的生物攻击”。毫无疑问，他们热切接受的许多结论强化了他们自己的深度愿望和幻想。几乎可以肯定，他们的结论支持他们对生命和人性的看法。【现如今的知识爆炸知识订阅都是这样】
Here's how ones preferences can influence one's judgment. Two businessmen have just concluded an extended conference and are having a late dinner in a crowded restaurant. Across the room, they notice an acquaintance dining with a woman. They realize she is not the man's wife. The first businessman has had several illicit affairs himself and assumes other people behave similarly. He is also erotically stimulated by the idea that the couple are cheating on their mates.He concludes that they are.
以下是人们的偏好如何影响人们的判断。两位商人刚刚结束了一次扩大的会议，并在拥挤的餐厅吃晚饭。整个房间里，他们注意到一个熟人和一个女人在一起吃饭。他们意识到她不是男人的妻子。第一个商人本人有风流韵事，他就假定其他人的行为类似。他被这对夫妻在欺骗他们各自的伴侣的想法激怒了。他得出的结论说他们是偷情。
The second businessman likes to think well of people. He is also very disturbed by the thought of any thought of any kind of dishonesty, including martial infidelity. He concludes the couple are innocent of any wrongdoing.
第二个商人喜欢往好处思考人。他也对任何一种不诚实的想法，包括对婚姻不忠行为的想法也感到非常不安。他总结这对夫妇是无辜的没有做任何不法行为。
Which conclusion is reasonable? Neither. In the absence of additional evidence, both are hasty conclusions. It may be that the couple are having an affair. Or it may not.(there could be any number of other explanations for their being together.) So the only reasonable reaction is not to draw any conclusion at that time.
哪个结论是合理的？都不是。在没有其他证据的情况下，两者都是草率的结论。这可能是夫妻俩有私情。或者它可能不会。（对于他们在一起可以有任何其他的解释）。因此，唯一合理的反应是当时不会得出任何结论。
THE UNPREDICTABLE ELEMENT
不可预知的要素
The other major cause of hasty conclusions – the peculiarities of certain situations – is largely unpredictable. Therefore, it can trap even the most careful thinker. Examples occur in every field of thought and work. One good example is the problem facing drug manufacturers. Every new drug must be thoroughly tested and proved safe for people to take before it can be released on the market. But testing is expensive and time-consuming. Furthermore, competition with other firms in the industry encourages speedy research. For these reasons it is tempting to judge a drug prematurely.
仓促结论的另一个主要原因 - 某些情况的特殊性 - 在很大程度上是不可预测的。因此，即使是最谨慎的思想家也会陷入困境。例子出现在每个领域的思想和工作中。一个很好的例子是药物制造商面临的问题。每一种新药都必须经过彻底的测试，并且在人们可以在市场上销售之前证明是安全的。但是测试是昂贵和耗时的。此外，与该行业其他公司的竞争鼓励了快速研究。由于这些原因，很容易过早地判断药物。
In the 1960s the most tragic example of this tendency was the drug thalidomide, which was branded safe and sold to thousands of pregnant women around the world. Only when hundreds of babies were born deformed, some grotesquely so, was the harm of the drug recognized. In the 1970s the "safe" drug Innovar began to be used as an anesthetic. A number of people now appear to have suffered extensive paralysis and brain damage from it.
在1960年代，这种趋势最悲惨的例子就是沙利度胺，该品牌是安全的，并销售给世界各地成千上万的孕妇。只有当数百个婴儿出生畸形时，有些奇怪的是，药物的危害才得到确认。在20世纪70年代，“安全”药物Innovar开始被用作麻醉剂。现在很多人似乎都遭受了广泛的瘫痪和脑损伤。
How much testing of drugs is enough? It is a difficult question. A drug called Intal has been effective in controlling the symptoms of asthma. A powder, it is sprayed into the bronchial passages. It desensitizes these passages so that they no longer constrict when allergens (pollen, for instance) are inhaled. During the early testing of this drug, one group of monkeys developed kidney lesions after being administered the drug. Was the reaction coincidental to the use of the drug, or did the drug cause the lesions? More testing was done, but the kidney lesions did not occur, so the conclusion was drawn that the lesions in the early testing had probably been coincidental.
多少药物测试就够了？这是一个困难的问题。一种名为Intal的药物可有效控制哮喘症状。粉末，它被喷射到支气管通道。它使这些段落不敏感，以便当过敏源（例如花粉）被吸入时不再收缩。在这种药物的早期检测过程中，一组猴子在给药后出现肾脏损害。该反应是否与该药的使用巧合，还是该药引起了损害？进行了更多的检测，但没有发现肾脏病变，所以得出的结论是，早期检测中的病变可能是巧合的。
It is possible that the conclusion about the drug Intal may be proved incorrect in the future. However, that would not mean that the original conclusion had been hasty. A conclusion is hasty only if the person drawing it fails to make a reasonable to obtain sufficient evidence to judge responsibly.
有可能关于药物口服剂的结论在将来可能被证明是不正确的。但是，这并不意味着最初的结论很仓促。只有当检测者没有合理地获得充足的证据来进行判断责任时，结论才是仓促的。
It is important, not to rush to conclusions because once we form a nay conclusion, our curiosity in the matter is diminished. In other words, we make up our mind, and before we can even entertain a different conclusion, we must first unmake our mind. Doing that is difficult. "Mine is better" thinking, resistance to change, and face-saving weigh heavily against us.
重要的是不要急于下结论，因为一旦我们形成了否定的结论，我们对此事的好奇心就会减弱。换句话说，我们下定决心，在我们可以得出不同的结论之前，我们必须首先 放下自己的想法。这样做很困难。“我的更好”，思考，抵制改变，面子保护，严重影响我们。【空杯心态】
Here are three suggestions that can help you avoid hasty conclusions in your thinking:
以下三点建议可以帮助您避免在您的思维中得出仓促的结论：
Before you draw any conclusion, be sure you have identified answered all important questions pertaining to the issue.
1在您得出任何结论之前，请确定您已确定 回答 有关该问题的所有重要问题。
Where you cannot obtain sufficient evidence, either withhold judgment or (if circumstances require an immediate judgment) use the "If… then" approach for example, if the issue concerned what punishment would be most appropriate for a murderer and you lacked some important details about the case, you might say, "If the murderer acted in the heat of anger, without any premeditation, then I believe he deserves leniency. However, if he visited victim with the clear intention of harming her, then I believe his punishment should be severe."
2如果你无法获得充分的证据，或者维持判决或者（如果情况要求立即判决），可以使用“如果......那么”的方法，如果问题涉及对凶手最适合的惩罚并且你缺乏一些关于凶手的重要细节这个案子你可能会说：“如果凶手因为愤怒而在没有任何预谋的情况下行动的， 那么 我相信他应该宽大处理，但如果他以明显的意图伤害她的方式来访问受害人， 那 我相信他的惩罚应该是严重的。”
3Where the evidence will support probability but not certainty, make your conclusion reflect that fact. That is, admit that it is impossible to say for sure what the right conclusion is, and explain why that is so. Then say what the right conclusion probably is.
在证据支持概率但不确定的地方，请您作出您的结论反映这一事实。也就是说，承认不可能肯定地说出正确的结论，并解释为什么是这样。然后说出正确的结论 可能 是什么。
APPLICATIONS
应用
Examine each of the following conclusions. Decide the specific kind and amount of information that would be necessary to obtain before the conclusion would be justified. Determine whether another possible conclusion might be more supportable than this one.
检查以下每个结论。决定在结论合理之前获得必要的信息的具体种类和数量。确定另一个可能的结论是否可能比这个结论更能获得支持。
Why are there so many broken homes today? Why are crimes of violence increasing at an alarming rate? Why is pornography flooding our country? Because religion has been shut out of the schools.
为什么今天有那么多破房子？为什么暴力犯罪以惊人的速度增加？为什么色情充斥着我们的国家？因为宗教已经被拒之门外。
Many people have spoken out in recent years for a reduction in U.S. military spending. This is madness. We need to spend every dollar we are spending to maintain our national security.
近年来，许多人已经表示要减少美国的军费开支。这太疯狂了。我们需要花费每一美元来维持国家安全。
What makes people willing to speak out against lawful authority? What makes them attack the representatives of that authority – police officers, judges, member of Congress, presidents? Only one thing: lack of respect for authority.
是什么让人们愿意冒犯合法权威呢？是什么让他们袭击该当局的代表 - 警察，法官，国会议员，总统？只有一件事：缺乏对权威的尊重。
Have you ever wondered why European and American cultures have been so opposed to premarital sex? The answer is simple: prudishness.
你有没有想过为什么欧美文化如此反对婚前性行为？答案很简单： 拘谨 。
While reading her evening newspaper, Jean notices that her congressman has voted against a highway proposal that would bring revenue to the area. She recalls that a recent poll of the voters in the district revealed that 63percent favor the proposal. Concluding that the congressman has violated the people's trust, Jean composes an angry letter reminding the congressman of his obligation to support the will of the majority. Is Jean guilty of drawing a hasty conclusion? Explain your answer.
在阅读她的晚报时，Jean注意到她的国会议员投票反对高速公路的提案，该举措将为该地区带来收入。她回忆说，最近对该地区选民的民意调查显示，63％的人赞成该提议。认为国会议员违反了人民的信任，吉恩撰写了一封愤怒的信件，提醒国会议员他有义务支持多数人的意愿。 Jean是否犯有匆忙的结论？解释你的答案。
Ramona and Stuart are arguing over whether their ten-year-old son should have certain duties around the home, such as taking out the garbage and mowing the lawn. Ramona thinks he should. Stuart's response is as follows:"When I was a kid, a close friend of mine was so busy with household chores that he could never play with the rest of the guys. He always had a hurt look on his face then, and as he got older, he became increasingly bitter about it. I vowed a long time ago that I would never burden my son with duties and responsibilities. He'll have more than enough of them when he grows up."Evaluate Stuart's conclusion in light of the chapter.
雷蒙娜和斯图亚特正在争论他们的十岁儿子是否应该在家附近有某种职责，比如拿出垃圾和修剪草坪。雷蒙娜认为他应该。斯图亚特的回应如下：“当我还是一个孩子的时候，我的一个好朋友忙于做家务，他无法与其他人一起玩，他的脸上总是有一种伤害的表情，当他年纪越来越大，他越来越感到痛苦，我很久以前就发誓，我永远不会让儿子承担起责任和义务，长大后他会有足够多的。根据本章评估斯图尔特的结论。
Apply your critical thinking to the following cases. Be especially careful to avoid hasty conclusions.
将您的批判性思维应用于以下案例。要特别小心避免草率的结论。
An Oklahoma man was sentenced to ninety-nine years in prison for indecent exposure. The prosecutor was able to ask for and get such a long sentence because the man had eleven prior convictions for burglary. The district attorney explained, "People are just tired of crime – they want the repeat offenders off the streets." Do you support the sentence in this case?
俄克拉何马州一名男子因不雅暴露而被判入狱九十九年。检察官能够要求并得到如此长的判决，因为该名男子之前有11起因入室盗窃而被定罪。该地区检察官解释说：“人们对犯罪感到厌倦 - 他们希望重复的罪犯不在街头。” 你是否支持这种情况下的判决？
A Connecticut teenager who stabbed a neighbor to death argued that he had not been responsible for his actions because at the time he had been possessed by demons. Despite that defense he was found guilty. Do you agree with the verdict in this case?
康涅狄格州的一名捅死邻居的少年认为，自己没有对自己的行为负责，因为当时他被恶魔占领。尽管如此，他被判有罪。你是否同意这种情况下的判决？
A New York woman was having an argument with her neighbor over their children. In anger she used an anti-Semitic obscenity. Because it is a misdemeanor in New York to harass others will racial or ethnic slurs, the woman was sentenced to thirty-five hours of community service. Do you think such a law makes sense?
一位纽约女子与她的邻居因为他们的孩子发生争吵。在愤怒中她使用了反犹太人的淫秽。因为在纽约骚扰别人会引起种族或民族诽谤，这名妇女被判处三十五小时的社区服务。你认为这样的法律有道理吗？
A high school anatomy class in Agoura, California, dissects human cadavers as well as cats and frogs. The teacher obtains the bodies from a university medical school. Do you approve of this practice?
加利福尼亚州阿古拉市的一所高中解剖学课程解剖人类尸体以及猫和青蛙。老师从大学医学院获得尸体。你赞成这种做法吗？
Some people believe the college degree should be abolished as a job requirement. They reason that because of it is possible to be qualified for many jobs without formal academic preparation (or, conversely, to be unprepared for many jobs even with a college degree), the only criterion employers should use for hiring and promoting is ability. Do you agree?
有些人认为作为工作要求应该取消大学学历。他们认为，即使没有正式的学术准备，也有可能获得许多工作的资格（或者相反，即使拥有大学学位也没为许多工作做好准备），雇主应该用来招聘和晋升的唯一标准是能力。 你同意吗？
Group discussion exercise: Discuss one of the cases in application 4with two or three of your classmates. Try to reach a consensus on the issue, taking special care to avoid hasty conclusions. Be prepared to present your group's view (or the individual views) to the class.
小组讨论练习：与你的两个或三个同学讨论申请4中的一个案例。尝试就此问题达成共识，特别注意避免草率的结论。准备好向班级介绍团队的观点（或个人观点）。
这个系列是对超越感觉：批判性思考指南 07版做的翻译练习，如果觉得有帮助可以点链接购买第九版中文，英文原版在这里Beyond Feelings：A Guide to Critical Thinking （英语）