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Markets are booming. Their underpinnings are fragile
证券市场一片繁荣，但其基础是脆弱的。
Have investors become irrationally exuberant? That is the biggest question hanging over global stock markets. Despite tumultuous politics across much of the rich world, share prices are reaching ever loftier heights. After breaking the 20,000 barrier in January, the Dow Jones Industrial Average swiftly passed 21,000 earlier this month. In Britain the FTSE 100 has been notching up fresh records, too. The MSCI World Index has hit an all-time high.
投资者已经变得非理性繁荣？ 这是高悬在全球资本市场之上的最大问题。 尽管多数富裕国家正面对纷乱的政治现实，股票价格已经达到了极高的高度。 道琼斯工业平均指数在1月份突破20，000点后，本月早些时候又快速超越了21,000点。 在英国，富时（FTSE）100指数也一直在加速创造新的记录。摩根士丹利（ MSCI）世界指数近日创下历史新高。
At first sight, the warning signals are flashing. The recent flotation of Snap, an internet firm that is yet to make a profit, brought back memories of the dotcom boom; its shares soared by 44% on their first day of trading (although they have fallen back since). By historical standards, valuations in the American market are worryingly dear. The cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio, which averages profits over ten years, is just under 30, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University. Only twice has it been higher—in the late 1990s, during the internet boom, and just before the crash of1929.
初看之下，警告信号正在闪烁。 Snap，一家尚未盈利的互联网公司，最近刚刚上市。这让我们回想起当年的互联网热潮; 其股票在交易首日飙升了44％（虽然自此股价开始下跌）。 以历史标准来衡量，美国资本市场现在的估值让人担心过于昂贵了。根据耶鲁大学的罗伯特·希勒（Robert Shiller）的测算，以十年平均利润做周期性调整后的价格收益比率（P/E）为略低于30。 只有两次例外，一次是在20世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫期间，一次是在1929年股市崩盘之前。
There are three reasons why investors are ignoring the alarm bells, each of them reasonable. First, investors’ exuberance comes after a long period of restraint. The S&P 500 index is up by 5.5% so far this year. But in 2016 it returned less than 10%. In 2015 it fell. Contrast that with the late 1990s, when the S&P 500 returned 20% or more in five successive years. Nor have investors bet the farm on shares. After suffering net outflows for the previous 12 months, equity mutual funds in America recorded their first week of net inflows in February. That same month a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers found that they held more cash than usual. Investors have a negative view on government bonds: ten-year Treasuries yield 2.5%, compared with 1.8% before Donald Trump’s election. Equities look attractive in comparison.
有三个原因解释为什么投资者对警告信号不理不睬，而且每个都很合理。 首先，投资者繁荣之前经历了长期的抑制。 标准普尔500指数今年迄今为止增长了5.5％。但在2016年它的回报率不足10％。 在2015年则是负数。比较上世纪90年代末，标准普尔500曾连续五年投资回报率达到或超过20％。 投资者并没有孤注一掷。 在经历了过去12个月的净流出后，美国的权益类共同基金在2月份第一次录得周净流入。同一个月，美国美林银行对基金经理的调查发现，他们持有比正常情况更多的现金。 投资者对政府债券持负面看法：十年期国债收益率是2.5％，而唐纳德·特朗普当选前为1.8％。相比之下，权益类股票看起来更有吸引力。
Second, there are indications of a pickup in the global economy.That is a big change from the start of 2016, when investors were preoccupied by the state of the Chinese economy and the threat of deflation. After a feeble performance over the past few years, with annual growth in trade volumes barely keeping pace with GDP, the signs are that global trade is picking up again. The volume of South Korean exports rose by 20% in the year to February, the fastest growth rate in five years. Commodity prices are 10% higher than a year ago. Even European growth forecasts have been revised higher.
第二个原因，有迹象表明全球经济正在复苏。这是2016年初以来的一个重大变化，那时投资者被中国经济状况和通货紧缩的威胁搞得心事重重。在过去几年的疲软表现之后，比如贸易额的年增长率几乎跟不上GDP的增长步伐，现在有迹象表明全球贸易正重新拾阶而上。韩国出口量在2月份增长了20％，这是五年来的最高增长率。商品价格比一年前高10％。甚至欧洲的增长预测也被修订得更高。
Third, expectations of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation from the Trump administration have invigorated animal spirits in America. In December American small-business confidence saw its biggest rise in nearly 40 years, according to the National Federation of Independent Business. Profits for firms in the S&P 500 index are expected to rise by 12% in 2017 after being squeezed during the past couple of years, partly because a low oil price hit the energy industry.
第三个原因，是对减税，基础设施建设开支和特朗普政府放松管制的预期，这些因素激发出美国的原始生命力。据全美独立企业联合会的统计，12月份美国小企业的信心指数取得了近40年来最大的增长。标准普尔500指数中的公司利润预计在2017年将上升12％。过去几年这些企业的利润持续承压，部分是因为低油价对能源行业造成的打击。
The risks to this happy prospect are manifold, however. Despite the strong tone of surveys, the recent economic data in America have been mixed: consumer spending and industrial production both fell in January. After eight years, this recovery is already long in the tooth. Mr Trump’s fiscal-stimulus programme could take till next year to get through Congress and will be watered down along the way. Some of Mr Trump’s proposals—cracking down on immigration, say, and threatening trade sanctions—would harm growth.
然而，对这种乐观前景产生威胁的有多个方面。尽管调查给出了乐观论调，最近的美国经济数据却喜忧参半：消费支出和工业产出在1月份双双下降。八年后，复苏只停留在口头。特朗普的财政刺激计划可能需要等到明年国会通过后才能施行，其效果也可能被冲淡。特朗普的一些建议，比如打击移民和威胁贸易制裁，则将损害增长。
Meanwhile, monetary policy, which has played a big role in supporting stock markets since 2009, is becoming less accommodating. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates this month (see Free exchange). The European Central Bank will scale back the volume of its monthly bond purchases in April. Around 80% of all global private-sector credit creation happens in China, according to Citigroup; the authorities there are already starting to tighten policy.
同时，自2009年以来对支持股市起到重大作用的货币政策变得不再适合。大家普遍预期美联储本月会加息。欧洲中央银行四月份将缩减每月债券购买量。根据花旗集团的数据，全球约80％的私营部门信贷发生于中国。那里的管理当局已经开始收紧政策。
Parties weren’t meant to last
聚会可能不会持久
A deeper problem lies in a contradiction between politics and economics. Elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany this year will give voters the chance to hammer established parties. Just as with MrTrump in America, workers are backing insurgent candidates because they want a bigger slice of the economic pie. But mathematics cannot square a surge in real wages with a market rally based on the hope that profits will rise faster than GDP. As a movement that rejects globalisation, populism is a menace to companies that thrive on the free movement of goods, labour and capital. So it will be hard to keep both populist voters and the equity markets happy. Stocks may fly high for some time yet, but investors should keep a parachute handy.
更深层的问题在于政治与经济间的矛盾。今年，在荷兰，法国和德国的选举将使选民有机会沉重打击建制派政党。 和特朗普在美国遭遇的情形类似，工人们支持那些叛逆候选人是因为他们想要在经济馅饼中攫取更多。基于利润上升将快于GDP的假设而导致的资本市场的回升无法简单计算为真实工资的大幅增长。作为拒绝全球化的运动，民粹主义对于那些在货物，劳动力和资本自由流动中获得蓬勃发展的公司来说是一种威胁。因此，民粹主义选民和资本市场幸福是鱼与熊掌很难兼得。股票可能还会高飞一段时间，但投资者要记得随身携带降落伞。