Some Basic Understanding:
The Conversational interface is that soon won’t require a screen or a mouse to use. There will be no need to click or swipe. This interface will be completely conversational, and those conversations will be indistinguishable from the conversations that we have with our friends and family.
The role of chatbots: Chatbots + Machine learning + Bigdata = the AI in the future
AI: Artificial intelligence, by definition, is intelligence exhibited by machines to display them as rational agents that can perceive their surroundings and make decisions. A rational agent defined by humans would be a computer that can realistically simulate human communication.
Basically, the change is from using hands to using voice.
Current Situation:
There are some tools already existed in the market, e.g. Facebook M、Google Now、Windows Cortana、Apple Siri, etc.
But nowadays, Chatbots are not really connected with the whole AI systems, the core function of Chatbots is "request-response". The content of response is based on the setting of the database and using the APIs of some other platforms / APPs / Website by matching the keywords.
And in China, Chatbots already have used in some situation of SNS(QQ group/ wechat application which need to jailbreak), customer service (Q&A) and some Navigation system.
Challenge:
- As a role of Customer service:
Chatbots are not suitable to apply in some complaint process
These application just can solve some basic issues, format or standard issues, most of these issues maybe already exsited in the Q&A lists
- As a role of SNS plug-in:
it's very rely on the rule of the SNS eco-system
- As a role of stand alone APP or Product:
means as a role of entrance, that will make a more complicatied competition
POV 1. We are still at the very beginning of AI, even the Chatbots
We still have a long way to meet the target of being indistinguishable from the conversations that we have with our friends and family.
POV 2. The great progress of chatbots is very based on the development of machine learning and bigdata
Chatbots are just the bots that could speak. But the mind relys on the machine learning system and bigdata.
POV 3. If the Chatbots will play a role of strand alone APP or Product with the whole AI system, then the Competition will not only related to the bots-selves.
Cause of stand alone APP or Product means entrance, entrance equal to traffic.
So basied on the historical behavior of BAT and some other brands in China, they will not or not totally open or share their entrance with each other or others. Even we could imagine that if there is a Chatbot of Xiaomi, the Customer tell the Chatbot that he want to buy a mobile phone. And then, which mobile phone will the Chatbot recommend?
The competition will involve players below:
Hardware:
just like Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi, or some electrical appliances, just like Simense, Phillips, Haier...
Software:
APIs of platforms, APPs and websites; machine learning system and bigdata; Security Software...
Both:
360, BAT, Apple, Google, etc.
At the End:
If we need to do some recommendation to our clients, that will be very different based on their different industry and products, even we should consider about their different TA and consumer profile. Except it is a technical company.
But we still could prospect that the winner will be the one who has a stronger eco-system in the whole internet, or who plays a significant role in the eco-system of AI, just like the machine learning system which is very high-tech.