Innovation Diffusion Curve

Better and Better                                                                                                Day 67

      Yesterday we learned that when a new thing is accepted by 10% to 25% people in the market, the diffusion rate will suddenly accelerate. This law can also be applied to industries, that is, we can judge what stage the industry is according to the market permeability of a product, and whether it will expand faster in the future or has passed the fastest stage. If we draw a coordinate map, abscissa is the stage of industry development, followed by the introduction period, growth period, mature period, recession period, the ordinate is permeability is permeability. We can draw an inverted “U” curve, which we call the innovation diffusion curve. The new things we contact with have gone such a process to become the mainstream.       

      昨天我們學了一個新事物，當被全市場10%-25%的人接受時，擴散速度會突然加快。這個規律同樣可用在產業上，也就是我們可以根據一種產品的市場滲透率，來判斷這個行業處在什麽發展階段，判斷它未來會擴張得更快，還是已經過了最快的那個階段了。如果我們畫一個坐標圖，橫坐標是行業發展階段，依次是引入期、增長期、成熟期、衰退期，縱坐標就是滲透率。我們就能畫出一條倒“U”型的曲綫，我們把它叫做“創新擴散曲綫”。我們接觸到的新事物，後來變成主流，都會經歷這麽一個過程。 

                                                                                                            Oct.30th ,2018                                                                                                                  Bazhou.