2022李宏毅机器学习hw1--COVID-19 Cases Prediction

目录

一. 开题说明：

二. 梗概：

三. 问题背景：

四. 模型建立：

1. 数据下载

2. 导入必要的包

3. 定义函数

4. 定义类（Dataset以及DNN）

5. 特征选择

6. 定义超参数

7. 定义DataLoader

8. 训练与预测

五. 可视化分析

 六. 优缺点分析与改进建议

优点：

缺点：

改进建议：

---

一. 开题说明：

        本人在完成HW1的过程中，发现存在以下困难：

1. 信息获取相对麻烦，不易于寻找相关资料

2. 可提供的有用信息比较零散，导致不能马上检索出关键

3. 部分高质量代码因博主个人收取费用，致使开源学习受限

        鉴于以上，在此进行开源分享，希望能更好地帮助大家同时加深自己的印象。以下是提交结果，其中得分分别来自于Private Score和Public Score（已过Strong Baseline）

       

二. 梗概：

        通过Sample Code的运行，在Kaggle平台上可取得在Private和Public Score上分别为1.91281，1.89565的分数，本文在Sample Code的基础上，更进了Feature Selection，DNN，Optimizer以及learning rate，最终取得Private和Public Score上分别为1.08889，1.02013的分数。

        

三. 问题背景：

Based on the survey results of the past 5 days in specific states of the United States, the percentage of new positive cases on the fifth day is predicted. Through this training, we should achieve the following objectives:

• Solve a regression problem with deep neural networks (DNN).
• Understand basic DNN training tips.
• Familiarize yourself with PyTorch.

四. 模型建立：

1. 数据下载

P.S. 数据集能够通过pip指令下载，也能够从Kaggle平台上直接下载：

!gdown --id '1kLSW_-cW2Huj7bh84YTdimGBOJaODiOS' --output covid.train.csv

!gdown --id '1iiI5qROrAhZn-o4FPqsE97bMzDEFvIdg' --output covid.test.csv

2. 导入必要的包

# Numerical Operations
import math
import numpy as np

# Reading/Writing Data
import pandas as pd
import os
import csv

# For Progress Bar
from tqdm import tqdm

# Pytorch
import torch 
import torch.nn as nn
from torch.utils.data import Dataset, DataLoader, random_split

# For plotting learning curve
from torch.utils.tensorboard import SummaryWriter

3. 定义函数

def same_seed(seed): 
    '''Fixes random number generator seeds for reproducibility.'''
    torch.backends.cudnn.deterministic = True
    torch.backends.cudnn.benchmark = False
    np.random.seed(seed)
    torch.manual_seed(seed)
    if torch.cuda.is_available():
        torch.cuda.manual_seed_all(seed)


def train_valid_split(data_set, valid_ratio, seed):
    '''Split provided training data into training set and validation set'''
    valid_set_size = int(valid_ratio * len(data_set)) 
    train_set_size = len(data_set) - valid_set_size
    train_set, valid_set = random_split(data_set, [train_set_size, valid_set_size], generator=torch.Generator().manual_seed(seed))
    return np.array(train_set), np.array(valid_set)

def predict(test_loader, model, device):
    model.eval() # Set your model to evaluation mode.
    preds = []
    for x in tqdm(test_loader):
        x = x.to(device)                        
        with torch.no_grad():                   
            pred = model(x)                     
            preds.append(pred.detach().cpu())   
    preds = torch.cat(preds, dim=0).numpy()  
    return preds


def trainer(train_loader, valid_loader, model, config, device):

    criterion = nn.MSELoss(reduction='mean') # Define your loss function, do not modify this.

    # Define your optimization algorithm. 
    # TODO: Please check https://pytorch.org/docs/stable/optim.html to get more available algorithms.
    # TODO: L2 regularization (optimizer(weight decay...) or implement by your self).
    optimizer = torch.optim.Adam(model.parameters(), lr=config['learning_rate']) 
    


    writer = SummaryWriter() # Writer of tensoboard.

    if not os.path.isdir('./models'):
        os.mkdir('./models') # Create directory of saving models.

    n_epochs, best_loss, step, early_stop_count = config['n_epochs'], math.inf, 0, 0

    for epoch in range(n_epochs):
        model.train() # Set your model to train mode.
        loss_record = []

        # tqdm is a package to visualize your training progress.
        train_pbar = tqdm(train_loader, position=0, leave=True)

        for x, y in train_pbar:
            optimizer.zero_grad()               # Set gradient to zero.
            x, y = x.to(device), y.to(device)   # Move your data to device. 
            pred = model(x)             
            loss = criterion(pred, y)
            loss.backward()                     # Compute gradient(backpropagation).
            optimizer.step()                    # Update parameters.
            step += 1
            loss_record.append(loss.detach().item())
            
            # Display current epoch number and loss on tqdm progress bar.
            train_pbar.set_description(f'Epoch [{epoch+1}/{n_epochs}]')
            train_pbar.set_postfix({'loss': loss.detach().item()})

        mean_train_loss = sum(loss_record)/len(loss_record)
        writer.add_scalar('Loss/train', mean_train_loss, step)

        model.eval() # Set your model to evaluation mode.
        loss_record = []
        for x, y in valid_loader:
            x, y = x.to(device), y.to(device)
            with torch.no_grad():
                pred = model(x)
                loss = criterion(pred, y)

            loss_record.append(loss.item())
            
        mean_valid_loss = sum(loss_record)/len(loss_record)
        print(f'Epoch [{epoch+1}/{n_epochs}]: Train loss: {mean_train_loss:.4f}, Valid loss: {mean_valid_loss:.4f}')
        writer.add_scalar('Loss/valid', mean_valid_loss, step)

        if mean_valid_loss < best_loss:
            best_loss = mean_valid_loss
            torch.save(model.state_dict(), config['save_path']) # Save your best model
            print('Saving model with loss {:.3f}...'.format(best_loss))
            early_stop_count = 0
        else: 
            early_stop_count += 1

        if early_stop_count >= config['early_stop']:
            print('\nModel is not improving, so we halt the training session.')
            return

4. 定义类（Dataset以及DNN）

class COVID19Dataset(Dataset):
    '''
    x: Features.
    y: Targets, if none, do prediction.
    '''
    def __init__(self, x, y=None):
        if y is None:
            self.y = y
        else:
            self.y = torch.FloatTensor(y)
        self.x = torch.FloatTensor(x)

    def __getitem__(self, idx):
        if self.y is None:
            return self.x[idx]
        else:
            return self.x[idx], self.y[idx]

    def __len__(self):
        return len(self.x)


class My_Model(nn.Module):
    def __init__(self, input_dim):
        super(My_Model, self).__init__()
        # TODO: modify model's structure, be aware of dimensions. 
        self.layers = nn.Sequential(
            nn.Linear(input_dim, 64),
            nn.LeakyReLU(0.1),
            
            nn.Linear(64, 32),
            nn.LeakyReLU(0.1),
            
            nn.Linear(32, 16),
            nn.LeakyReLU(0.1),

            nn.Linear(16, 8),
            nn.LeakyReLU(0.1),
            
            nn.Linear(8, 1),
        )

    def forward(self, x):
        x = self.layers(x)
        #x = nn.functional.dropout(x,p=0.01,training=self.training)
        x = x.squeeze(1) # (B, 1) -> (B)
        return x



from google.colab import drive
drive.mount('/content/drive')

5. 特征选择

        由于在测试集中需预测第五天的tested_postive，因此我选用了前四天的tested_positive作为feat_idx以增强数据之间的相关性。值得注意的是，在处理csv文件时需去除第一列（id对问题的解决无实际性意义）。

def select_feat(train_data, valid_data, test_data, select_all=True):
    '''Selects useful features to perform regression'''
    y_train, y_valid = train_data[:,-1], valid_data[:,-1]
    raw_x_train, raw_x_valid, raw_x_test = train_data[:,:-1], valid_data[:,:-1], test_data

    if select_all:
        feat_idx = list(range(raw_x_train.shape[1]))
    else:
        feat_idx = [53, 69, 85, 101] # TODO: Select suitable feature columns.
        
    return raw_x_train[:,feat_idx], raw_x_valid[:,feat_idx], raw_x_test[:,feat_idx], y_train, y_valid

        训练集covid.train.csv大致情况如下：

6. 定义超参数

device = 'cuda' if torch.cuda.is_available() else 'cpu'
config = {
    'seed': 5201314,      # Your seed number, you can pick your lucky number. :)
    'select_all': False,   # Whether to use all features.
    'valid_ratio': 0.2,   # validation_size = train_size * valid_ratio
    'n_epochs': 3000,     # Number of epochs.            
    'batch_size': 256, 
    'learning_rate': 1e-4,              
    'early_stop': 400,    # If model has not improved for this many consecutive epochs, stop training.     
    'save_path': './models/model.ckpt'  # Your model will be saved here.
}

7. 定义DataLoader

        从文件中读取数据并设置培训、验证和测试集。

# Set seed for reproducibility
same_seed(config['seed'])


# train_data size: 2699 x 118 (id + 37 states + 16 features x 5 days) 
# test_data size: 1078 x 117 (without last day's positive rate)
train_data, test_data = pd.read_csv('./covid.train.csv').values, pd.read_csv('./covid.test.csv').values
train_data, valid_data = train_valid_split(train_data, config['valid_ratio'], config['seed'])

# Print out the data size.
print(f"""train_data size: {train_data.shape} 
valid_data size: {valid_data.shape} 
test_data size: {test_data.shape}""")

# Select features
x_train, x_valid, x_test, y_train, y_valid = select_feat(train_data, valid_data, test_data, config['select_all'])

# Print out the number of features.
print(f'number of features: {x_train.shape[1]}')

train_dataset, valid_dataset, test_dataset = COVID19Dataset(x_train, y_train), \
                                            COVID19Dataset(x_valid, y_valid), \
                                            COVID19Dataset(x_test)

# Pytorch data loader loads pytorch dataset into batches.
train_loader = DataLoader(train_dataset, batch_size=config['batch_size'], shuffle=True, pin_memory=True)
valid_loader = DataLoader(valid_dataset, batch_size=config['batch_size'], shuffle=True, pin_memory=True)
test_loader = DataLoader(test_dataset, batch_size=config['batch_size'], shuffle=False, pin_memory=True)

8. 训练与预测

# Start Training !!!
model = My_Model(input_dim=x_train.shape[1]).to(device) # put your model and data on the same computation device.
trainer(train_loader, valid_loader, model, config, device)


# Start Predicting !!!
def save_pred(preds, file):
    ''' Save predictions to specified file '''
    with open(file, 'w') as fp:
        writer = csv.writer(fp)
        writer.writerow(['id', 'tested_positive'])
        for i, p in enumerate(preds):
            writer.writerow([i, p])

model = My_Model(input_dim=x_train.shape[1]).to(device)
model.load_state_dict(torch.load(config['save_path']))
preds = predict(test_loader, model, device) 
save_pred(preds, 'pred.csv')         

五. 可视化分析

        在深度学习框架中，有很多可视化的工具，其中，Tensorboard是一个工具，可以让您可视化训练进度。运行该配件时，需利用以下指令：

%reload_ext tensorboard
%tensorboard --logdir=./runs/

      训练过程Loss在Train和Valid的下降过程如下：

        此外，可以在board上滑动鼠标进行数值的更进一步分析：

 六. 优缺点分析与改进建议

优点：

1. 本文从相关性出发针对性地选取了前四天的tested_positive，同时利用优化后的全连接层完成了回归预测。

2. 对优化器进行了改进，利用Adam使Loss下降更加平稳，同时稍提高learning rate以增加Loss的收敛速度

缺点：

1. 由于能力受限，无法对整个数据集中的所有指标进行相关性分析

2. learning rate不能随着学习过程的变化进行动态更替，导致训练后期并不能收敛到一个较低的值，而是进行反复地上下波动

3. 未考虑是否存在过拟合情况

改进建议：

1. 查阅文献，可采用余弦退火的技巧对learning rate进行动态更新

2. 可利用sklearn中的特征选择方法对Feature Selection进行更改，同时可对各个指标进行归一化

3. 在DNN模型定义中加入L2正则化，Dropout等方法防止模型过拟合