Down the rabbithole
未知之旅
The promise and perils of decentralised finance
鲜花伴着荆棘，金融体系正走向去中心化
THE SCEPTICS have plenty of fodder. The earliest adopters of bitcoin, theoriginal cryptocurrency, used it to buy drugs, while cyber-hackers now demand their ransom in it. Hundreds of millions of dollars of ether, anotherdigital money, were stolen this year after hackers found a bug in some code.Many“believers”are in reality trying to get richquick from the global maniathat has seen the value ofcryptoassets reach $2.2trn. Others are freakishly devoted. Theentrepreneur who announced in June that El Salvador was adopting bitcoin as anofficial currency sobbed on stage, claiming it would save thenation.
怀疑者们口实诸多。比特币，作为最原始的加密货币，最早被用于秘购毒品，现在却沦为黑客们勒索的赎金币种，掩人耳目。另一种数字货币，以太币（ETH）,也仅仅因代码漏洞，遭受黑客盗窃，损失数亿。目前，全球加密资产总价值高达2.2万亿美元，引得币圈信徒为之狂热，正汲汲欲试，以期暴富。更有甚者，不能自已。今年6月，Zap的首席执行官Jack Mallers登台宣布萨尔瓦多共和国将采用比特币作为流通货币时，几度啜泣，声称此举将拯救这个国家。（Zap是一家通过闪电网络进行交易的比特币投资和支付公司。）
The crooks, fools and proselytisers are off-putting. Nevertheless, the rise of an ecosystem of financial services, known as decentralised finance, or “DeFi”, deserves sober consideration. Ithas the potential to rewire how the financial system works, with all thepromise and perils that entails. The proliferation of innovation in DeFi is akin to the frenzy of invention in the early phase ofthe web. At a time when people live ever more of their lives online, thecrypto-revolution could even remake the architecture of the digital economy.
网络犯罪，盲目投机，甚至鼓吹比特币作为官方币种固然令人不悦，然而其中崛起的金融服务生态体系，即去中心化金融体系( 简称DeFi ), 却值得深思。去中心化金融体系的优劣暂不置评，该体系确实能够颠覆当前金融体系的运作方式。如今去中心化金融体系的创新爆发，几乎是互联网早期发明狂潮的翻版。线上生活愈加丰富的互联网时代，一旦接入加密货币，整个互联网经济将天翻地覆。
DeFi is one of three tech trends disrupting finance. Tech “platform” firms aremuscling in on payments and banks. Governments are launching digitalcurrencies, or govcoins. DeFi offers an alternative path which aims to spreadpower, not concentrate it. To understand how, start with blockchains, vastnetworks of computers that keep an open, incorruptible common record and updateit without the need for a central authority.
颠覆金融的科技趋势有三，去中心化金融体系是其中之一。此外，科技“平台”公司正争相挤入支付和银行领域；再者，各国政府也在推行数字货币（或称为国家加密货币）。区别在于，去中心化金融体系旨在分散，而非集中权利。这一过程，离不开区块链技术的支持。区块链，是一个由计算机组成的庞大网络体系。这里没有集中监管，节点数据自动更新，记录共享，人人可见，且不可篡改。
Bitcoin, the first big blockchain, created in 2009, is now a distraction.Instead, Ethereum, a blockchain network created in 2015, upon which most DeFiapplications are built, is reaching critical mass. Its developers view financeas a juicy target. Conventional banking requires a huge infrastructure tomaintain trust between strangers, from clearing houses and compliance tocapital rules and courts. It is expensive and often captured by insiders: thinkof credit-card fees and bankers’ yachts.By contrast, transactions on a blockchain are trustworthy, cheap, transparent and quick—at least in theory.
比特币，诞生于2009年，是世上第一个大型区块链，如今争议不断，发展受阻。而创建于2015年的区块链技术网络的以太坊，正衍生出各类去中心化金融体系应用，即将迎来爆发性增长。对于金融领域这块大蛋糕，开发者们正虎视眈眈。传统银行为了建立客户信任，需要有清算中心，需要遵从资本市场的各项规章，确保合规合法，一系列流程下来，成本不菲。小到信用卡手续费，大到各类流程的花费，这些油水也大多没有流入外人之田，看看银行家们的游艇就知道了。相比之下，区块链平台上的交易，可靠，便宜，透明，高效——至少理论上应该如此。
Although the terminology is intimidating (fees are “gas”; the main currency is ether, and title deeds over digital assets areknown as NFTs), the basic activities taking place on DeFi are familiar. Theseinclude trading on exchanges and issuing loans and taking deposits throughself-executing agreements called smart contracts. One yardstick of activity is the value of digital instruments being used as collateral:from almost nothing in early 2018 it has reached $90bn. Another is the value oftransactions that Ethereum is verifying. In the second quarter this reached$2.5trn, around the same sum as Visa processes and equivalent to a sixth of theactivity on Nasdaq, a stock exchange.
尽管去中心化金融体系里的术语有点绕人，(交易费用按“gas”计算，主要货币是ether，数字资产产权证用NFTs表示)，但基本业务并不稀奇，有证券交易、贷款业务、存款业务，上述业务皆通过可自动执行的智能合约负责把关。这些业务有两大衡量标准，其一，是数字合约的价值，合约价值本身提供履约担保。2018年初，数字合约还一文不值，如今已经飙升到900亿美元；其二，是经以太坊验证过的智能交易的价值总额。第二季度，该交易总额已达2万5千亿美元，与Visa信用卡同季度交易额大致持平，几乎赶上纳斯达克股交所（Nasdaq）同季度交易量的1/6。
The dream of a low-friction financial system is just the beginning. DeFi is spreading to more ambitious terrain. MetaMask, a DeFi wallet with more than 10m users, acts as a digital identity. To enter a decentralised “metaverse”, a looking-glass world with shops run by itsusers, you link your wallet to a cartoonish avatar who roamsaround. These digital worlds will become the subject of intensifyingcompetition as more spending shifts online. Big tech firms could impose hugetaxes on these mini-economies: imagine Apple’s App Store charging fees, or Facebook selling your avatar’sintimate secrets. A better alternative might be decentralised networks thathost and applications are run mutually by users. DeFi could provide paymentsand property rights.
高效运转的金融体系，只是蓝图一角。在更广阔的的领域里，去中心化金融服务，大有可为。以MetaMask元宇宙为例，这是一款1000万＋用户的钱包应用，也是一张去中心化的个人数字身份证。只需设置好你的虚拟形象，将之与钱包绑定，你就可以进入一个称之为“元宇宙”的虚拟世界，这里商店遍布，没有集中式监管，用户自营。未来，随着此类虚拟世界里消费的激增，每个用户本身就是一个数据小金矿，传统金融体系下的科技巨头势必会为之明争暗夺，少不得横敲一笔：有的应用一旦进入Apple程序商店，用户需要付费才能下载；脸书账户的一切社交动态数据，也可能暗中被收集售卖。去中心化的网络体系，应需而生。去中心化金融体系里，用户不仅可以自行管理主机和应用程序，而且可以实现自由买卖。
Crypto-enthusiasts see a Utopia. But there is a long way to go before DeFi isas reliable as, say, JPMorgan Chase or PayPal. Some problems are prosaic. A common criticism is that blockchain platforms do not scale easily and thatthe computers they harness consume wasteful amounts of electricity. ButEthereum is a self-improvement machine. When it is in high demand the fees itcharges for verification can climb, encouraging developers to work onminimising the intensity with which they use it. There will be new versions ofEthereum; other, better blockchains could one day replace it.
乌托邦隐约可见，但去中心化金融体系若想可靠如摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase) 或 PayPal，依旧任重而道远。有些问题老生常谈。通常来说，区块链平台难以规模化，且耗电量过大。以太坊，经过升级, 已经可以自我优化。平台需求量一旦增大，验证费用也会水涨船高，以此倒逼开发者实现需求最小化，达到平衡。以太坊的迭代升级，仍在继续；有朝一日，性能更优越的区块链应用或将取而代之。
Yet DeFi also raises questions about how a virtual economy withits own norms interacts with the real world. One worry is the lack of an external anchor of value. Cryptocurrencies are no different fromthe dollar, in that they rely on people having a shared expectation of theirutility. However, conventional money is also backed by states with a monopolyon force and central banks that are lenders of last resort. Without these, DeFiwill be vulnerable to panics. Contract enforcement outside the virtual world isalso a concern. A blockchain contract may say you own a house but only thepolice can enforce an eviction.
未来虽可期，去中心化金融体系的现状却着实让人担忧：虚拟经济的运行规则该如何在现实中落地？首先，加密货币不是美元，人们不会像对待美元那样信任加密货币，换句话说，加密货币没有确切的外部价值锚定。其次，无人背书。传统货币有国家垄断性强制背书且受央行准备金保护，去中心化金融体系没有这两道保护线，一旦恐慌性挤兑发生，难以抵御风险。再者，智能合约的线下执行也是个问题。区块链的合约可以证明房子是你的，但强制收回房屋，还需要现实警力的帮助。
Alice’s adventures in DeFi-land
自由派的冒险之旅
Digital libertarians would prefer that DeFi remain autonomous —imperfect but pure. Yet to succeed it must integrate with the conventional financial and legal systems, as Gary Gensler, a crypto-expert who is America’s financial watchdog, has outlined. Many DeFi applications are run by decentralised organisationswhich vote on some issues; these bodies should become subject to laws andregulations. The Bank for International Settlements, a club for central banks,has suggested that govcoins might be used in DeFi apps, providing stability.
自由派认为去中心化金融服务领域应当不受监管和控制，哪怕问题不断，也应坚持自治。但是，据加密货币领域的专家，同时也是美国金融的把关人，Gary Gensler指出，去中心化金融服务要想走下去，不可能绕开传统金融体系和法律框架。许多去中心化金融服务的运行主体是一些去中心化组织，他们目前采取投票的方式，进行问题决策。这些组织，不应游走于法律法规之外。为此，国际清算银行（一家多国央行参与的金融合作机构）建议，在去中心化金融服务软件中发行“政府币”（即由政府背书的数字货币），以增强该体系的稳定性。
Finance is entering a new era in which the threenovel but flawed visions of tech platforms, big government and DeFiwill compete and intermingle. Each embodies a technical architecture and anideology about how the economy should be run. As with the internet in the1990s, no one knows where the revolution will end. But it stands to transformhow money works and, as it does so, the entire digital world.
金融体系正迈入一个新时代。科技平台接入，政府监督管控和金融体系去中心化这三大愿景，新颖但仍需完善，且未来这几个趋势将会互相竞争，互相融合。其中，三者就经济运行的技术构架和意识形态各有千秋，具体如何引领新时代的脚步，有待实践，正如上世纪90年代互联网革命性问世之初，大家也是摸着石头过河。毋庸置疑的是，金融体系的变革必将改写现有金融秩序，进而撼动整个数字经济。