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题记：美国弗吉尼亚大学达顿商学院的萨拉斯（Saras Sarasvathy）教授（其导师是诺贝尔经济学奖获得者赫伯特·西蒙）提出的效果推理（Effectuation）理论概括了一种超越古典决策逻辑的、解释创业者在不确定环境或市场不存在的情况下，创建新企业的独特行为的最有说服力的理论之一。这一理论在十余年间获得学界高度关注和广泛认可，被认为是创业研究领域最具原创性的成果。为深入了解萨拉斯教授的研究过程、研究方法及其成果——效果推理（Effectuation）理论的核心观点、理论精髓，从本期开始“子谦译文”将分5期连载萨拉斯教授在2001年发表的一篇重要研究文献——《是什么赋予创业者创业力？》（What makes entrepreneurs entrepren-eurial?）。
本译文为五篇连载的第4期。
效果推理：逻辑
所有这些效果推理的原则背后有一个连贯的逻辑，它建立在一个与因果推理完全不同的关于未来的假设之上。因果推理基于的逻辑是：在某种程度上我们可以预测未来，（所以）我们可以控制未来。这就是为什么当今的商科学者和从业者都在预测模型的开发上花费了大量的精力和资源的原因。而效果推理所基于的逻辑是：在某种程度上我们可以控制未来，（所以）我们不需要预测它。
如何控制一个不可预测的未来？这个问题的答案取决于我们对未来从何而来的认知。未来主要是过去的延续吗？人 类的行为在多大程度上可以改变其进程？虽然未来总是不确定，但并非所有的不确定都是雷同的。我们可以利用最简单经典的统计模型对不同类型的不确定性进行模拟：把不确定的未来当作盛有不同颜色球的盒子，如果抽取到其中的红球会得到奖励（比如是50美元）。假设第一个盒子中有10个红球和10个绿球。在这种情况下，玩家可以计算出每局25美元的预期回报率，因为赢得50美元的机率是50%。这是一个有风险但可预测的未来的模型。
然而，创业者以及现实世界中的大多数人通常必须在没有这种可预测性的情况下处事。他们必须面对的盒子中没有已知数量和已知颜色的球，而是盛着未知数量、未知颜色的球，但游戏规则保持不变。在这种情况下，对于玩家来说，最好的策略是随机抽取数次球，并仔细记录下每次抽取的结果，以便随着抽取次数的增多来发现盒子中球的分布规律。这是一个有关不确定但可学习的未来的模型，未来随着抽取次数的增多变得可以预测。使用 “在某种程度上我们可以预测未来并控制它”的因果逻辑在这两种情况下都有意义。
但创业者更愿选择通过效果逻辑来看待未来。无论是有意识的还是无意识的，他们的行为都表明：他们相信未来不是“在那里”等着被发现，而是通过玩家的策略被创造出来的。换句话说，创业者运用效果逻辑表明：“无论盒子中球的初始分布如何，我都会持续去寻得红球并将它们放入盒中。我也会寻找其他拥有红球的人，说服他们成为伙伴，并将他们的红球放入盒中。随着时间的推移，盒中会集有越来越多的红球，如此一来几乎每一次抽取都会获得一个红球。另一种情况是，如果我和我的伙伴们只有绿球，我们将会把它们放入盒中，当盒中集有足够的绿球时，一个以抽取到绿球为获胜条件的新游戏将会被创造。”当然，这种观点可能只是表达了一种理想状态而非现实，很多创业者在实际操作时确实失败了。但事实仍然是，创业者使用这种逻辑不断尝试建立新的“盒子”、设计新的游戏。实际上，我研究过的几位专家型创业者明确表示，停留在一个可以预测的市场中并不是一个绝佳策略，因为总会有人比他们更聪明、有更多资源，会比他们更好地预测市场。而处于一个不可预测的市场中意味着，市场可以通过他们自己的决策行动与预先承诺的利益相关者和客户合作伙伴共同创造。他们可以一起使用意外事件作为原材料的一部分，来创建他们的“盒子”。
专家型创业者通常不参与赌球业务或博彩业务，实际上他们是在从事创造未来的业务，这需要长期与各式各样的人一起工作。一个代表着未来的坚固盒子中装有持久的人际关系，这种关系比失败更经久不衰，并且随着时间的推移助力成功的创造。
在这种持久关系的网络中，效果推理在新市场中引入新产品等领域极为有效，这一领域通常被称为自杀象限（参见下图），正是传统营销技术无效的领域。
这是因为效果逻辑依赖于人，因果逻辑依赖于结果。换句话说，当某个具体结果已被选定，例如一个现有市场中的目标细分，那么我们雇佣及合作的人选将取决于我们想要创造的结果或者我们想要进入的市场。而效果逻辑并不假设预先存在的市场，而是建立在如下观念之上：我们所创造的市场将取决于我们能够聚集在一起的人。事实上，在效果推理中，市场本质上是一群关键利益相关者的稳定配置，这些利益相关者聚集在一起，通过经济手段将人类想象力的成果转化为人类愿望的形成和实现。
在创业领域，无论是银行家、律师、风险投资家还是其他投资者，经验丰富的专业人士长久以来都认同成功创业者的观点：找到并带领“对”的人去创造才是持久创业的关键。这些创业者们知道，所谓“对”的人不会在就业市场上等待着创业者为其提供工作并给予激励。相反，“对”的人要在努力的目标和事情中拥有情感主动权，并且只会被自己对创造未来的信念所激励，这种信念饱涵着他们最高昂的激情和最深切的愿望，同时使他们最大化发挥出自己的潜能。
伟大的创业者会更多地意识到人的因素在创建“盒子”时的核心作用。使用效果逻辑，让他们知道他们也不能一直等待着“对”的人到来。除了不断努力吸引“对”的人之外，他们还会学习如何自己去栽培和塑造“对”的人。正如乔西亚·韦奇伍德（Josiah Wedgwood）所写的那样，“我们必须把艺术家变成真实的‘人’。”AES是一家价值数十亿美元，业务遍及全球几十个国家的电力公司，最近，它的创始人说：“AES有趣的地方在于，在这里工作的人都全情投入和参与。他们完全有决策的权利和责任，他们要对结果负责。每天所做的事情对公司和对我们经营的社区来说都至关重要。”
AES人员工作场景
但是，对于在创业活动中使用效果逻辑也有一个黑暗推论。由于他们没有设想具体预存的目标或结果，而是在实施的过程中让结果渐渐显现，所以在利用效果逻辑创造产品和市场时，创业者及其合作伙伴也可能最终给他们所生活的社会带去不利后果。他们创造的结果也可能会反映出那些参与创造新“盒子”和新游戏的人们的愚昧和贪婪，以及他们的意愿和愿望。但是，我们对效果推理的认知应该达到让其更清楚地提醒着我们：创业者和市场体系中的其他成员在创造未来时应站在“人”的角度去思考，而不仅仅是紧盯GDP的数字增长。
（未完待续，敬请关注续篇。本文转载请注明出处,侵权必究）
作者——Saras D. Sarasvathy
译者——师柔剑
审稿——吴现波
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附原文
Effectual reasoning: The logic
Underlying all the principles of effectual reasoning is a coherent logic that rests on a fundamentally different assumption about the future than causal reasoning. Causal reasoning is based on the logic, To the extent that we can predict the future, we can control it. That is why both academics and practitioners in business today spend enormous amounts of brainpower and resources on developing predictive models. Effectual reasoning, however, is based on the logic, To the extent that we can control the future, we do not need to predict it.
How does one control an unpredictable future? The answer to this question depends on our beliefs about where the future comes from. Is the future largely a continuation of the past? To what extent can human action actually change its course? While the future is always uncertain, not all uncertainties are the same. In fact, the simplest way we can model the different types of uncertainties is through the classic statistical model of the future as an urn containing different colored balls wherein the drawing of (say) a red ball, results in a reward (of say, $50). Assume the first urn contains 10 red balls and 10 green balls. In this case, the player can calculate the odds as an expected return of $25 on every draw since there is a 50-50 chance of winning $50. This is the model of a risky, but predictable, future. Entrepreneurs, as well as most human beings in the real world, however, usually have to operate without such predictability. The urn they have to deal with does not have a given number of balls of known colors. Instead it contains an unknown number of balls of unknown colors, but the game remains the same. In this case, the best strategy for the player is to draw balls randomly several times and to carefully note the result of each draw so that the distribution of balls in the urn can be discovered over time. This is a model of an uncertain, but learnable future that becomes predictable over time. Using the causal logic -- to the extent we can predict the future, we can control it – makes sense in both these cases.
But entrepreneurs choose to view the future through effectual logic. Consciously, or unconsciously, they act as if they believe that the future is not “out there” to be discovered, but that it gets created through the very strategies of the players. In other words, the entrepreneur using effectual logic says: "Whatever the initial distribution of balls in the urn, I will continue to acquire red balls and put them in the urn. I will look for other people who own red balls and induce them to become partners and add to the red balls in the urn. As time goes by, there will be so many red balls in the urn that almost every draw will obtain one. On the other hand, if I and my acquaintances have only green balls, we will put them in the urn, and when there are enough, will create a new game where green balls win." Of course, such a view may express hopes rather than realities, and many entrepreneurs in the real world do fail. But the fact remains that entrepreneurs use this logic to try and build new urns and devise new games all the time. In fact, several of the expert entrepreneurs I studied explicitly stated that being in a market that could be predicted was not such a good idea, since there would always be someone smarter and with deeper pockets who would predict it better than they could. But being in an unpredictable market meant that the market could be shaped through their own decisions and actions working in conjunction with pre-committed stakeholders and customer-partners. Together they could use contingencies along the way as part of the raw materials that constitute the very urn they are constructing.
Expert entrepreneurs are not usually in the ball counting business or the gaming business. Instead they are actually in the business of creating the future, which entails having to work together with a wide variety of people over long periods of time. Sturdy urns of the future are filled with enduring human relationships that outlive failures and create successes over time.
Embodied in a network of such enduring relationships, effectual logic is particularly useful and effective in domains such as the introduction of new products in new markets, an area often referred to as the suicide quadrant (See Figure 3), exactly the area where traditional marketing techniques are ineffective.
That is because effectual logic is people dependent, unlike causal logic, which is effect dependent. In other words, when a particular effect has already been chosen such as a target segment within an existing market, the people we hire and partner with will depend on the effect we want to create or the market we want to penetrate. Effectual logic, however, does not assume pre-existent markets and builds on the idea that the markets we create will be predicated on the people we are able to bring together. In fact, in effectual reasoning, markets are in essence stable configurations of critical masses of stakeholders who come together to transform the outputs of human imagination into the forging and fulfillment of human aspirations through economic means.
Experienced professionals in the entrepreneurial arena, whether they are bankers, lawyers, VCs or other investors have always agreed with successful entrepreneurs that finding and leading the right people is the key to creating an enduring venture. These entrepreneurs know that such “right” people are not on the job market waiting for the jobs and incentives the entrepreneurs can offer them. Instead the “right” people need emotional ownership in the goals and objectives of the endeavor and can only be incentivized by the belief that the effects they create will embody their deepest passions and aspirations while enabling them to achieve their best potential.
But great entrepreneurs realize something more about the central role of people in shaping the urn. Using effectual logic, they understand that they too cannot wait around to find the “right” people all the time. Besides continually striving to attract the “right” people, they learn also to nurture and grow them in their own backyards. As Josiah Wedgwood wrote, “We have to make artists of mere men.” And more recently, the founders of AES Corp., a multibillion dollar electric power company with operations in dozens of countries around the world say, “[AES] is fun because the people who work here are fully engaged. They have total responsibility for decisions. They are accountable for results. What they do every day matters to the company, and it matters to the communities we operate in.”
There is, however, a dark corollary to the use of effectual logic in entrepreneurial activity. Since they do not assume specific pre-existent goals or effects and let these effects emerge through the process, in using effectual logic to create products and markets, entrepreneurs and their partners may also end up creating harmful and problematic effects for the society they live in. The effects they create may reflect the ignorance and cupidity as well as the will and aspirations of the people who participate in the creation of new urns and games of the future. But our awareness of the existence of effectual reasoning should alert us more sharply to the role of entrepreneurs and the market system in shaping our future as a species, not merely as contributors to GDP.