DAY 81 The market v the real economy
市场与实体经济
所谓实体经济（Real Economy）是指物质的、精神的产品和服务的生产、流通等经济活动。最典型的有机械制造、纺织加工、建筑安装、石化冶炼、种养采掘、交通运输
versus [ˈvɜːsəs]
prep. 对，对抗；与……相对，与……相比
Financial markets have got out of whack with the economy. Something has to give
whack /wæk/
1> (informal) to hit somebody/something very hard
2> (informal) to put something somewhere without much care
3> (North American English, slang) to murder somebody
vt.重击，使劲打； 分配； 击败； 削减n.重击； 一份儿； 尝试； 状况out of whack，意思是身体不舒服，或者是说什么东西坏了。
such a wreck，意思是乱七八糟。out of whack
1> no longer correct or working properly 运转失灵的，出毛病的
2> not agreeing with or the same as something else
奇怪的，莫名其妙的，不对头的美国俚语非常丰富，“out of whack”（紊乱）就是其中的一个。有意思的是，whack（重击）和wacky（疯疯癫癫的）不仅长得像，而且还有一定血缘关系。Whack是个拟声词，读音仿佛激烈碰撞时那种惊天动地的声音；而wacky则是指那些因脑袋遭受重创后而变得痴傻、行为不正常的人。
18世纪时，whack被盗贼们用作“瓜分”，意思是“把盗来的东西分成许多份，以此分赃”。后来，由于盗贼们在分赃过程中会遇到各种利益冲突，whack（瓜分）就逐渐演变成“讨价还价；达成协议”的意思。到了19世纪，whack已不再仅仅是盗贼们的行话，它的含义进一步发展为“契约；期望”，这样，out of whack便可解释成“脱离契约；出乎意料”，也就是“偏轨；不正常”了。whacky
Some of it was a bit "whacky", but much was of extraordinarily high quality.
1 Stockmarket history is packed with drama: the 1929 crash; Black Monday in 1987, when share prices lost 20% in a day; the dotcom mania in 1999. With such precedents, nothing should come as a surprise, but the past eight weeks have been remarkable, nonetheless. A gut-wrenching sell-off in shares has been followed by a delirious rally in America. Between February 19th and March 23rd, the s&p 500 index lost a third of its value. With barely a pause it has since rocketed, recovering more than half its loss. The catalyst was news that the Federal Reserve would buy corporate bonds, helping big firms finance their debts. Investors shifted from panic to optimism without missing a beat.
be packed with 挤满；塞满
pack [pæk]
n. 包装；一群；背包；包裹；一副vt. 包装；压紧；捆扎；挑选；塞满vi. 挤；包装货物；被包装；群集the 1929 crash 经济危机
crash [kræʃ]
n. （交通工具）坠毁；碰撞声；暴跌；（机器、系统的）崩溃；睡觉；粗棉布Black Monday
黑色星期一指股市大跌经常出现在星期一的现象。最著名的黑色星期一是1987年10月19日美国股市发生的大跌，当日道琼斯指数下跌了22%。dotcom mania 互联网热潮
dotcom ['dɔtkɔm] 网站
mania [ˈmeɪniə] [ˈmeɪniə] n. 狂热；狂躁；热衷precedent [ˈpresɪdənt]
n. 先例；前例adj. 在前的；在先的
remarkable [rɪˈmɑːkəbl] 不同寻常的，值得注意的
unusual or special in a way that makes people notice them and be surprised or impressed
adj. 卓越的；非凡的；值得注意的
nonetheless [ˌnʌnðəˈles] adv. 尽管如此，但是gut-wrenching [ˈɡʌt rentʃɪŋ]
make you feel extremely shocked or upset
adj. 极度痛苦的，撕心裂肺的
gut [ɡʌt]
n. 内脏；肠子；剧情；胆量；海峡；勇气；直觉；肠
vt. 取出内脏；摧毁（建筑物等）的内部
adj. 简单的；本质的，根本的；本能的，直觉的
wrench [rentʃ]
vt. 扭伤；猛扭；曲解；折磨vi. 扭伤；猛扭；猛绞sell-off [ˈsel ɒf]
n. （国有企业的）出售；（证券）抛售；（低价）处理财产
the sale of a large number of stocks and shares, after which their value usually fallsdelirious [dɪˈlɪriəs
extremely excited and happy
adj. 发狂的；神志昏迷的；精神错乱的rally [ˈræli]
n. 公众集会；汽车拉力赛；往返拍击；止跌回升；竞赛catalyst [ˈkætəlɪst]
n. [物化] 催化剂；刺激因素miss a beat 错失机会; 停顿; 犹豫;
（心脏） 跳动zd（似乎）暂停; （非正式） （尤指在专严峻情况或活动间的过渡期间）犹豫，踌躇;rocket [ˈrɒkɪt] v. 迅速增加
the Federal Reserve 美联储; 中央银行
corporate bond 企业债券
finance vt. 负担经费，供给…经费vi. 筹措资金The Great Depression
大萧条，是指1929年至1933年之间发源于美国，并后来波及整个资本主义世界，其中包括美国、英国、法国、德国和日本等资本主义国家的经济危机。这一危机具有持续时间长，范围广，破坏力强的特点，其根源在于资本主义制度的基本矛盾，也就是生产社会化和资本主义生产资料私有制之间的矛盾。 [1] 大萧条是现代社会持续时间最长的经济萧条，不仅导致了长期的大规模失业，也改变了社会关系，摧毁了执政政府，帮助纳粹党上台，最终导致了第二次世界大战的爆发。
Depression [dɪˈpreʃn]
n.抑郁症; 精神忧郁; 抑郁; 沮丧; 消沉; 萧条期; 经济衰退; 不景气;s&p 500 index
标准普尔500指数英文简写为S&P 500 Index，是记录美国500家上市公司的一个股票指数。这个股票指数由标准普尔公司创建并维护。标准普尔500指数覆盖的所有公司，都是在美国主要交易所，如纽约证券交易所、Nasdaq交易的上市公司。与道琼斯指数相比，标准普尔500指数包含的公司更多，因此风险更为分散，能够反映更广泛的市场变化。 与道·琼斯工业平均股票指数相比，标准·普尔500指数具有采样面广、代表性强、精确度高、连续性好等特点，被普遍认为是一种理想的股票指数期货合约的标的。
2 This rosy view from Wall Street should make you uneasy (see article). It contrasts with markets elsewhere. Shares in Britain and continental Europe, for example, have recovered more sluggishly. And it is a world away from life on Main Street. Even as the lockdown eases in America, the blow to jobs has been savage, with unemployment rising from 4% to about 16%, the highest rate since records began in 1948. While big firms’ shares soar and they get help from the Fed, small businesses are struggling to get cash from Uncle Sam.
rosy [ˈrəʊzi ] 乐观的
the situation seems likely to be good or successful.sluggishly /ˈslʌɡɪʃli/ adv. 懒怠地；慢吞吞地
more slowly than normal and in a way that seems lazysavage /ˈsævɪdʒ/
aggressive and violent; causing great harm
adj. 野蛮的；残酷的；狂怒的；荒凉的
n. 未开化的人；粗鲁的人；残暴成性的人
vt. 乱咬；粗暴的对待soar /sɔː(r)/ v
if the value, amount or level of something soars, it rises very quickly
=rocketUncle Sam =US
3 Wounds from the financial crisis of 2007-09 are being reopened. “This is the second time we’ve bailed their asses out,” grumbled Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate, last month. The battle over who pays for the fiscal burdens of the pandemic is just beginning. On the present trajectory, a backlash against big business is likely.
bail out 帮助某人脱困，保释
grumble /ˈɡrʌmbl/
1> to complain about somebody/something, especially something that is not really very serious
2> to make a deep continuous sound =rumbletrajectory /trəˈdʒektəri/ n 轨道
the curved path of something that has been fired, hit or thrown into the airbacklash /ˈbæklæʃ/ n
a strong negative reaction by a large number of people, for example to something that has recently changed in society
n. 反冲；强烈抵制
vt. 强烈反对；发生后冲
4 Start with events in the markets. Much of the improved mood is because of the Fed, which has acted more dramatically than other central banks, buying up assets on an unimagined scale. It is committed to purchasing even more corporate debt, including high-yield “junk” bonds. The market for new issues of corporate bonds, which froze in February, has reopened in spectacular style. Companies have issued $560bn of bonds in the past six weeks, double the normal level. Even beached cruise-line firms have been able to raise cash, albeit at a high price. A cascade of bankruptcies at big firms has been forestalled. The central bank has, in effect, backstopped the cashflow of America Inc. The stockmarket has taken the hint and climbed.
dramatically /drəˈmætɪkli/ ad
very suddenly and to a very great and often surprising degree 、It is committed to
high-yield 高收益
in spectacular style 惊人的方式
beach 搁浅的
cruise-line 游轮公司albeit /ˌɔːlˈbiːɪt/ conjunction
althoughA cascade of 一连串；一系列
cascade /kæˈskeɪd/ n
1> a small waterfall, especially one of several falling down a steep slope with rocks
2> a large amount of water falling or pouring down
forestall 先发制人，预先阻止
/fɔːˈstɔːl/ v
to prevent something from happening or somebody from doing something by doing something firstbackstop=support
take the hint 领悟到提示
The stockmarket has taken the hint and climbed. 领悟到提示并且行动
5 The Fed has little choice—a run on the corporate-bond market would worsen a deep recession. Investors have cheered it on by piling into shares. They have nowhere else good to put their cash. Government-bond yields are barely positive in America. They are negative in Japan and much of Europe. You are guaranteed to lose money by holding them to maturity, and if inflation rises the losses would be painful. So stocks are appealing. By late March prices had fallen by enough to tempt the braver sort. They steeled themselves with the observation that much of the stockmarket’s value is tied to profits that will be made long after the covid-19 slump has given way to recovery.
cheer on 鼓励，为某人打气
pile into v. 挤进；进入Government-bond yields 国债利率
yield 利率maturity [məˈtʃʊərəti ]
n. 成熟；到期；完备tempt [tempt]
vt. 诱惑；引起；冒…的风险；使感兴趣steel v 锻炼
steel with 坚信slump /slʌmp/ v =drop
to fall in price, value, number, etc., suddenly and by a large amount
6 Tellingly, though, the recent rise in share prices has been uneven. Even before the pandemic the market was lopsided, and it has become more so. Bourses in Britain and continental Europe, chock-full of troubled industries like carmaking, banking and energy, have lagged behind, and there are renewed jitters over the single currency (see article). In America investors have put even more faith in a tiny group of tech darlings—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—which now make up a fifth of the s&p 500 index. There is little euphoria, just a despairing reach for the handful of businesses judged to be all-weather survivors.
Tellingly /ˈtelɪŋli/ adv. 有效地；显著地
in a way that shows effectively what somebody/something is really like, but often without intending tolopsided [ˌlɒpˈsaɪdɪd]
uneven because one side is lower or heavier than the other
adj. 不平衡的，倾向一方的Bourse /bʊəs/ n. 交易所
a stock exchange, especially the one in Parischock-full [ˌtʃɒk ˈfʊl]
adj. 塞满了的；充满的，挤满的lagged behind =trail n /treɪl/
to move or develop slowly or more slowly than other people, organizations, etc.
lag /læɡ/ vjitters /ˈdʒɪtəz/ n
feelings of being anxious and nervous, especially before an important event or before having to do something difficult
n. 紧张不安；神经过敏；激动（jitter 的复数）
v. （信号）抖动，晃动；紧张不安；使激动（jitter 的第三人称单数）euphoria /juːˈfɔːriə/ n
an extremely strong feeling of happiness and excitement that usually lasts only a short time
n. （常指较短时间的）极度兴奋，情绪高涨，狂喜despairing [dɪˈspeərɪŋ]
adj. 感到绝望的；表现绝望的；无望的reach /riːtʃ/ n 影响力
the limit to which somebody/something has the power or influence to do something
eg： The brand now has global reach.
beyond somebody/something's reach
Such matters are beyond the reach of the law.
out of somebody/something's reach
Victory is now out of her reach.
within somebody/something's reach
The basic model is priced well within the reach of most people.all-weather survivors 全天候天气幸存者
7 At one level, this makes good sense. Asset managers have to put money to work as best they can. But there is something wrong with how fast stock prices have moved and where they have got back to. American shares are now higher than they were in August. This would seem to imply that commerce and the broader economy can get back to business as usual. There are countless threats to such a prospect, but three stand out. The first is the risk of an aftershock. It is entirely possible that there will be a second wave of infections. And there are also the consequences of a steep recession to contend with—American gdp is expected to drop by about 10% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Many individual bosses hope that ruthless cost-cutting can help protect their margins and pay down the debts accumulated through the furlough. But in aggregate this corporate austerity will depress demand. The likely outcome is a 90% economy, running far below normal levels.
At one level = to some degree在某种程度上
get back to
1> to speak or write to somebody again later, especially in order to give a reply
2> to return to somethingstand out
1> stand out (as something) =outstanding
to be much better or more important than somebody/something
2> stand out (from/against something)
to be easily seen or noticedaftershock 余波
People sometimes refer to the effects of an important event, especially a bad one, as the aftershock.a steep recession 急剧衰退
contend with 满足于
in the second quarter 第二季度ruthless 无情的
margin 利润率
furlough 休假in aggregate 总体而言
austerity /ɒˈsterəti/ 紧缩
1> [u] difficult economic conditions created by government policies aimed at cutting public spending
2> [u] the quality of being simple and plain in appearance
n. 紧缩；朴素；苦行；严厉pay down
(especially North American English) to reduce an amount of money that you owe by paying some of it
8 A second hazard to reckon with is fraud. Extended booms tend to encourage shifty behaviour, and the expansion before the covid crash was the longest on record. Years of cheap money and financial engineering mean that accounting shenanigans may now be laid bare. Already there have been two notable scandals in Asia in recent weeks, at Luckin Coffee, a Chinese Starbucks wannabe, and Hin Leong, a Singaporean energy trader that has been hiding giant losses (see article). A big fraud or corporate collapse in America could rock the markets’ confidence, much as the demise of Enron shredded investors’ nerves in 2001 and Lehman Brothers led the stockmarket down in 2008.
Extended booms 持续的扩张
shifty /ˈʃɪfti/ 不诚实的行为 = furtive
seeming to be dishonest; looking guilty about somethingcheap money 低息贷款？
低利借款；来得容易的非正当收入；在钱上好商量的人
Cheap money is a loan or credit with a low interest rate or the setting of low interest rates by a central bank like the Federal Reserve.accounting shenanigans 财务造假
shenanigans /ʃɪˈnænɪɡənz/
secret or dishonest activities that people find interesting and sometimes funny
n. 恶作剧；诈骗；诡计（shenanigan的复数）laid bare 暴露无遗
hiding giant losses 隐瞒巨额损失
rock the markets’ confidence 动摇市场信心
demise /dɪˈmaɪz/ n
1> the end or failure of an institution, an idea, a company, etc.
2> death
n. 死亡，终止；转让；传位vt. 遗赠；禅让shred /ʃred/ v
to cut or tear something into small pieces
v.切碎; 撕碎;
n.(撕或切的) 细条，碎片; 极少量; 些许; 一丁点;
9 The most overlooked risk is of a political backlash. The slump will hurt smaller firms and leave the bigger corporate survivors in a stronger position, increasing the concentration of some industries that was already a problem before the pandemic. A crisis demands sacrifice and will leave behind a big bill. The clamour for payback will only grow louder if big business has hogged more than its share of the subsidies on offer. It is easy to imagine windfall taxes on bailed-out industries, or a sharp reversal of the steady drop in the statutory federal corporate-tax rate, which fell to 21% in 2017 after President Donald Trump’s tax reforms, from a long-term average of well over 30%. Some Democrats want to limit mergers and stop firms returning cash to their owners.
backlash 反弹
n. 反冲；强烈抵制vt. 强烈反对；发生后冲slump 猛跌——>经济衰退
concentration 集中度
行业集中度指数(Concentration Ratio，CRn)
行业集中度指数又称“行业集中率”是指该行业的相关市场内前N家最大的企业所占市场份额（产值、产量、销售额、销售量、职工人数、资产总额等）的总和。clamour /ˈklæmə(r)/ 呼声
1> a loud noise, especially one that is made by a lot of people or animals
2> clamour (for something)
a demand for something made by a lot of peoplehogged 占有的
hog /hɒɡ/
to use or keep most of something yourself and stop others from using or having it
n. 猪，像猪般的人；贪婪者vt. 使拱起vi. 拱起on offer 提供的
windfall taxes 暴利税
a sharp reversal 极具逆转
statutory [ˈstætʃətri]
adj. 法定的；法令的；可依法惩处的federal corporate-tax rate 联邦公司税率
Democrats 民主党人
merger [ˈmɜːdʒə(r)]
（企业等的）合并；并购
10 For now, equity investors judge that the Fed has their back. But the mood of the markets can shift suddenly, as an extraordinary couple of months has proved. A one-month bear market scarcely seems enough time to absorb all the possible bad news from the pandemic and the huge uncertainty it has created. This stockmarket drama has a few more acts yet.■
equity investors 股权投资者
the mood of
bear market 熊市
scarcely /ˈskeəsli/ ad
1> only just; almost not
2> used to say that something happens immediately after something else happens
3> used to suggest that something is not at all reasonable or likely
adv. 几乎不，简直不；几乎没有；决不； 刚……就……；仅仅，刚刚；勉强，刚；根本不可能；不可能，不会