•原文
Never in recent memory has global growth been so clouded by uncertainty. Covid-19’s full impact has been obscured by massive emergency government intervention to bail out companies and support workers. Only when that support is withdrawn will the veil be lifted. In America watch permanent joblessness, rather than the plummeting headline unemployment rate, to see whether the jobs market has truly turned a corner. Don’t watch inflation data, which at present are distorted by temporary changes in the economy, nor bond yields, which are pegged down by central banks, but inflation expectations. Monetary policy is predictable: rich-world interest rates will not rise soon. Rather, more economies will experiment with rates negative. Governments must judge whether the economic recovery needs more help—watching finance ministries will be more important than studying central banks. Finally, consider the issue that defined the outlook for 2020 before the pandemic: the Sino-American trade war. Watch out for China’s trade surplus.
•翻译
在人们近年的记忆里，全球经济增长从未像今年这样如此不确定（clouded by uncertainty）。由于政府大规模实施紧急干预措施援助（bail out）企业、救济（support）员工，人们并不能看清（obscured by）疫情带来的全部影响。只有当政府停止援助（support is withdrawn），真相才会浮出水面。
相比起各报纸版面头条新闻中骤降的失业率，在美国，要想判断就业市场是否真的暂时转危为安（turned a corner)，要看永久性失业情况。不要关注(watch)目前被短期的经济变化所扭曲的通货膨胀数据，也不要去关注被中央银行限定在低位的(pegged down)债券收益率，而是要关注通胀预期。
货币政策的未来可以预见：发达国家的利率不会快速上升。相反，更多经济体将尝试负利率。政府必须判断恢复经济是否需要更多帮助—而关注财政部比研究中央银行更重要。最后，还要考虑在疫情前定义了2020走向(outlook)的问题：中美贸易战。我们要密切关注中国的贸易顺差。
/ 中译英
在被疫情笼罩的2020，各国央行主要通过降低利率和量化宽松来促进经济复苏，但这可能会导致通货膨胀。
-In 2020 clouded by the COVID-19 pandemic, the central banks all over the world are boosting their economic recovery by lowering interest rates and easing quantitative, which may lead to inflation.
•词句
fiscal policy 财政政策（调整税收、公共开支） ➡️ finance ministry 财政部
monetary policy 货币政策（调整利率、货币发行量） ➡️ central bank 中央银行
quantitative easing/QE 量化宽松
cyclical unemployment 周期性失业 （经济衰退导致 经济政策措施对象）
intervention 干预措施
援助 bail out
转危为安 turn a corner
peg 限定
-Its currency is pegged to the dollar.
其货币与美元挂钩。
cloud 使…难以理解；模糊不清
-My judgement had been clouded by my anger.
当时愤怒影响了我的判断能力。
bond yields 债券收益率
watch out for 小心 密切关注
原文来源
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